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It is a night for nostalgia and celebration, with a sprinkle of finals football potential thrown in for good measure. A huge crowd is expected, and a giant TV audience assured. Peculiarities abound, and here’s the forecast.
Tonight is the last time Hawthorn’s Luke Hodge will wear the brown and gold on the field. After multiple premierships and more than 300 games of football, the departure of Hodge is part of the evolution of the Hawthorn list, and the transition from a phenomenally successful era to one characterised by a set of new challenges.
The Western Bulldogs are also, perhaps, farewelling storied veterans. Captain Robert Murphy, who cruelly missed out on last year’s premiership from a playing perspective, leaves the game with a complicated legacy. Fellow journeyman Matthew Boyd, the accumulating midfielder reborn as a mid-sized defender at the tail end of his career, will also finish up at the end of this year.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
We say end of the year because there is a faint chance the Western Bulldogs can jag the eight seed this weekend. Should the Dogs lose, they would need all of Essendon, West Coast and St Kilda to lose by fairly large margins – ok ridiculously large margins, like 30 goals – then the Dogs could make it in. If they Dogs win though, then they either require losses across the board regardless of margin, or for their win to be so much larger than teams they are looking to overtake that they will do it.
Either case is a long shot, and although these Dogs specialise in long shots this is like shooting an apple clean off someone’s head with an elastic band fired from your fingers: physically possible but good luck.
Both teams are using tonight’s game to unveil a 2016 draftee, with the Western Bulldogs handing a debut to Patrick Lipinski and Hawthorn to Harry Morrison. The Hawks made an additional change, with Liam Shiels returning from a hip complaint – Ricky Henderson and Ryan Burton make way with injuries. The Western Bulldogs made two additional changes, with Matthew Boyd coming in for his potential farewell game along with Tom Campbell; Travis Cloke, Jake Stringer and Tory Dickson out of the team.
As one keen Western Bulldogs supporter noted on Twitter, the changes mean the entirety of the forward group many pundits – including myself – looked to as being a path for the Dogs to get better in 2017 is sitting on the pine. It’s a neat encapsulation of the struggles of the team following their premiership in 2016.
There’s not a whole heap to analyse in this game, given the stakes are so low and both sides, by their selections, seem to be treating the fixture with a little more levity than usual.
We don’t have a 2017 game to break down, either. Tonight is the first time the Hawks and Dogs face off this season, and it’s the last game of the season.
Last time they met, the Hawks were the aging champion and the Dogs the plucky newcomer. Hawthorn had been pipped at the line by Geelong in a qualifying final, where Footscray had disembowelled the West Coast Eagles in an elimination final the night prior. On that night, the Dogs won the contested possession count by a truly mind blowing 50 possessions, which dulled the ability for the Hawks to get the ball on the outside – the crutch they were leaning on to guard against their unsteady legs. There was a clear identity, on both sides, and we know who won the day.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Tonight, well, what are these two teams? The Dogs have devolved to a jumbled mess forward of the ball, unable to capitalise on their young and productive midfield unit. The Hawks are half way through a list transition, and have switched up their tactics midstream after a poor start to the year.
Neither coach will be keen to try anything too outlandish given the respect that will be rightly afforded to the quartet of retiring veterans. Nor will they be keen to reveal anything they may be whiteboarding ahead of their 2018 campaigns.
So what are we left with? A game that we can enjoy for what it is: a low stakes encounter, between two teams looking to send off two storied figures in their clubs and continue their respective journeys back to contention – which vary in length.
As to the victor, it’s hard to look at the Western Bulldogs forward line and think it will be able to produce a competitive score. For all their issues, Hawthorn have been able to put up 90 points a game over the past two months, including three score in three figures. By contrast, the Dogs’ scoring has slowed to a trickle against all but the worst of the worst this season has offered up.
Footscray had posted six straight positive inside 50 differentials – indeed, the Dogs have the best inside 50 differential of any team between Round 16 and Round 21 at +16 – but outscored their opponents by just 1.8 points per week. It’s incredible. On this alone the Hawks should feel confident of victory.
That’s the way I’m leaning. For a bit of fun, let’s play a game to work out the margin. Over the course of their careers, Josh Gibson (also retiring but not playing) and Hodge have played in 143 and 179 wins respectively, compared to Boyd and Murphy at 146 and 140. 143 + 179 = 322; 146 + 140 = 286; 322 – 286 = 36.
Hawthorn will win tonight, by 36 points. That’s my Friday night forecast, what’s yours?