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2017 US Open: Draw breakdown and analysis

(AAP Image/Lukas Coch)
Roar Guru
27th August, 2017
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Both the men’s and women’s draws for the 2017 US Open have been released, and there will be a truckload of interesting matches to look forward to over the next fortnight.

We start with the men’s draw, where the top two seeds, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray are on opposite sides, meaning they cannot face each other until the final at the earliest, neither can Roger Federer or Alexander Zverev who are on those respective sides of the draw.

It is the first time that Nadal and Murray are the top two seeds at a Grand Slam tournament, meaning that the potential is there for a first ever major final between the pair.

Three of last year’s four semi-finalists (defending champion Stan Wawrinka, two-time champion Novak Djokovic and 2014 finalist Kei Nishikori) are all absent from the draw due to varying injuries.

Nadal will begin his quest for a third title at Flushing Meadows against Serbia’s Dusan Lajovic, with 26th seed Richard Gasquet looming as the first seed he could face in his path to a 16th major crown.

roger-federer-rafael-nadal-tennis-australian-open-2017

(AAP Image/Lukas Coch)

The 31-year-old could then face either Fabio Fognini or former Wimbledon finalist Tomas Berdych in the fourth round. Both men defeated the Spaniard in their most recent major meetings, at the US and Australian Opens respectively, both in 2015.

Seventh seed Grigor Dimitrov could then await in the quarter-finals; if that match-up eventuates it will be their first meeting since their dramatic five-set semi-final showdown at the Australian Open earlier this year.

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Dimitrov, for his part, kicks off his bid for a maiden major title against qualifier Vaclav Safranek, with ninth seed David Goffin and Gael Monfils, the only semi-finalist from last year to return, looming as obstacles in his path to a first quarter-final at Flushing Meadows.

Monfils’ first match is against compatriot Jeremy Chardy while Goffin is up against another Frenchman, Julien Benneteau, in his first major since suffering a serious ankle injury at the French Open.

We now move down to the second quarter of the draw, which is anchored by five-time champion Roger Federer.

The Swiss Maestro, who recently skipped Cincinnati due to a back injury, starts against Frances Tiafoe, after which he could face two-time semi-finalist Mikhail Youzhny, Feliciano Lopez and Nick Kyrgios before the quarter-finals.

Australia’s highest-ranked male, and best hope, Kyrgios, faces compatriot John Millman in his first match, and could then strike Wimbledon semi-finalist and 17th seed Sam Querrey in the third round before a potential showdown against Federer in the fourth.

It is of note that every set contested between Federer and Kyrgios has been decided in a tiebreak, and the potential is there for an extremely close match should it eventuate.

The Canberran won their first meeting in Madrid two years ago, before the Swiss hit back with an equally dramatic win in Miami earlier this year. Their head-to-head is tied at 1-all.

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nick-kyrgios-australia-tennis-2017

(AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)

Further down the draw, two-time French Open semi-finalist Dominic Thiem starts against Australian wildcard Alex de Minaur, and could run into former Australian Open finalist Marcos Baghdatis in the second round.

The sixth seed also stands to face a rematch against Juan Martin del Potro in the fourth round, provided the 2009 champion gets past Henri Laaksonen in his first match and then 11th seed Roberto Bautista Agut in the third.

Shifting to the bottom half of the draw now, where fifth seed Marin Cilic is up against Frenchman Gilles Simon in his first match.

The 2014 champion should enjoy an armchair ride into the fourth round, where he could face either 10th seed John Isner or Australian Open quarter-finalist Mischa Zverev.

In the quarter-finals, Cilic is drawn to face fourth seed Alexander Zverev, who has won five titles for the year, including his first two Masters titles at Rome and Montreal, in which he defeated Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer in those respective finals.

Zverev faces a qualifier, Darian King, in the first round, and could then face 2015 quarter-finalist Kevin Anderson in the third round and then local favourite Jack Sock in the fourth.

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Also in this section is Wimbledon quarter-finalist Gilles Muller, whose first round meeting against Bernard Tomic will be their first at a major since the 2009 Australian Open.

The bottom quarter of the draw is anchored by 2012 champion Andy Murray, who should not be troubled until at least the fourth round where either 16th seed Lucas Pouille or 21st seed David Ferrer could await.

Australian Thanasi Kokkinakis is in this section of the draw and he is up against 2011 quarter-finalist Janko Tipsarevic in his first match.

Whoever emerges from this part of the draw is projected to face eighth seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarter-finals.

Tsonga is up against Marcus Copil in his first match, after which he could face Canadian qualifier Denis Shapovalov, who upset Rafael Nadal in Montreal two weeks ago, in the second round.

Past that, the Frenchman should enjoy an easy ride into the quarter-finals.

Should the favourites hold, the quarter-finals onwards could look like this:

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Quarter-finals
[1] Rafael Nadal (ESP) versus [7] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL)
[3] Roger Federer (SUI) versus [6] Dominic Thiem (AUT)
[5] Marin Cilic (CRO) versus [4] Alexander Zverev (GER)
[8] Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) versus [2] Andy Murray (GBR)

Semi-finals
[1] Rafael Nadal (ESP) versus [3] Roger Federer (SUI)
[5] Marin Cilic (CRO) versus [2] Andy Murray (GBR)

Final
[1] Rafael Nadal (ESP) versus [2] Andy Murray (GBR)

Champion
[1] Rafael Nadal (ESP)

Let’s now have a look at the women’s draw, the highlight of which is a massive first round clash between second seed Simona Halep and 2006 champion Maria Sharapova, who will be contesting her first major tournament since last year’s Australian Open.

We’ll get to that shortly, but first, as always, we start from the top.

Last year’s finalist, and world number one Karolina Pliskova, begins her first major tournament as the top seed with what should be a relatively easy opener against Poland’s Magda Linnette.

karolina-pliskova-tennis-2017

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

The first seed she could face is 27th seed Zhang Shuai in the third round, while compatriot Barbora Strycova or 14th seed Kristina Mladenovic could await the Czech in the round of 16.

In the quarter-finals, the 25-year-old could face either 10th seed Agnieszka Radwanska, who has yet to advance past the round of 16 at the US Open, or 2004 champion Svetlana Kuznetsova.

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Radwanska and Kuznetsova have met frequently over the course of their careers; though if they meet in the fourth round it will be their first ever meeting at Flushing Meadows.

But first thing’s first – the Pole is up against Petra Martic in her first match while Kuznetsova’s quest for an unlikely second title in New York starts with what should be an easy match-up with Marketa Vondrousova.

Fourth seed Elina Svitolina is the headline name in the second quarter of the draw and the Ukrainian faces a potentially tricky path to her first US Open quarter-final.

After what should be a relatively easy first-up match against Katerina Siniakova, Svitolina could then face Eugenie Bouchard, Daria Gavrilova and Madison Keys in succession just to reach the final eight.

Bouchard, Gavrilova and Keys are up against Evgeniya Rodina, qualifier Allie Kiick and Elise Mertens in their first round matches respectively.

American tennis prodigy Madison Keys

(Source: Wiki Commons)

Sixth seed and defending champion Angelique Kerber is the other big name in this quarter of the draw; she faces Japan’s Naomi Osaka in her first match with 28th seed Lesia Tsurenko looming as her potential third round opponent.

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Also in this section of the draw is French Open champion Jelena Ostapenko and 19th seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who will have a local crowd against her as she is up against Christina McHale.

We now move down to the bottom half of the draw, where fifth seed Caroline Wozniacki could face ninth seed and two-time champion Venus Williams in the fourth round.

The two-time finalist is up against a qualifier, Mihaela Buzarnescu, in her first match, with either Australian Open semi-finalist Mirjana Lucic-Baroni or Olympic gold medallist Monica Puig looming as her third round obstacle before the likely showdown against Venus in the round of 16.

The elder of the Williams sisters is also up against a qualifier, Viktoria Kuzmova, in her first match, with 24th seed Kiki Bertens looming as her potential third round opponent.

Whichever player emerges from this section of the draw is likely to face reigning Wimbledon champion Garbine Muguruza, or Petra Kvitova, in the quarter-finals.

Muguruza, who thrashed Simona Halep to win Cincinnati last week to assert herself as one of the favourites for the crown at Flushing Meadows, faces American Varvara Lepchenko in her first match, and could then face a rematch against Magdalena Rybarikova in the third round.

The Spaniard had dealt Rybarikova a humiliating straight-sets defeat in the semi-finals at Wimbledon, but there is no doubt the Slovak will be a much different player this time around.

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Kvitova, on the other hand, is up against 2008 finalist Jelena Jankovic in another pick of the first round matches. Her projected third round opponent is 18th seed Caroline Garcia.

And now, to the bottom quarter of the draw, which is headlined by the massive first round showdown between world number two Simona Halep, and 2006 champion Maria Sharapova, who will be competing in her first major tournament since last year’s Australian Open after being granted a wildcard.

As if Halep’s recent misfortunes as far as her pursuit of the world number one ranking wasn’t enough already, the Romanian could be dudded yet again by the fact she has not beaten Sharapova in six previous attempts.

The Russian has also never lost a first round match at Flushing Meadows and hasn’t bombed out this early at any major since the 2010 Australian Open.

It is also just over three years since the pair met in a dramatic French Open final, where Sharapova held her nerve to win her second title at Roland Garros and fifth Grand Slam title overall.

Now, the 30-year-old has the opportunity to inflict more misery on Halep and potentially take her path deep into the quarter-finals, and possibly beyond.

Simona Halep

(Carine06 / Flickr)

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The winner of that blockbuster first round match could then face 3second seed Lauren Davis in the third round, and then last year’s quarter-finalist, Anastasija Sevastova, in the fourth.

Either seventh seed Johanna Konta or 11th seed Dominika Cibulkova, who has reached the final at the ongoing event in Connecticut, could then await in the quarter-finals.

Australians Ashleigh Barty and Ajla Tomljanovic, as well as local favourite Sloane Stephens and 2015 finalist Roberta Vinci, are also in this section of the draw.

Barty is up against 21st seed and last year’s quarter-finalist, Ana Konjuh, in her first match, while Tomljanovic could face Konta in the second round provided she gets past Johanna Larsson in her first match.

The winner of the first round tie between Stephens and Vinci could face Cibulkova in the second round.

Should the favourites hold, the quarter-finals onwards could look like this:

Quarter-finals
[1] Karolina Pliskova (CZE) versus [8] Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS)
[4] Elina Svitolina (UKR) versus [6] Angelique Kerber (GER)
[9] Venus Williams (USA) versus [3] Garbine Muguruza (ESP)
[7] Johanna Konta (GBR) versus [2] Simona Halep (ROU)

Semi-finals
[1] Karolina Pliskova (CZE) versus [6] Angelique Kerber (GER)
[3] Garbine Muguruza (ESP) versus [2] Simona Halep (ROU)

Final
[1] Karolina Pliskova (CZE) versus [2] Simona Halep (ROU)

Champion
[1] Karolina Pliskova (CZE)

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Play gets underway on Tuesday morning at 1:00am (AEST).

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