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Brisbane may have finished last in 2017 but, after almost doubling their win tally from a season ago, there’s plenty of optimism around the young Lions heading into next season.
This club has had a few false dawns in the past decade however, how much improvement can be expected in the next 12 months?
What I predicted
“Brisbane do appear to have some sense of direction for the first time in a long time. They put in some strong half-game performances at home last season, and a cleaner bill of health will certainly do them good.
“That said, finals are still a very long way off.”
Prediction: 15th
What actually happened
The sky looked to be the limit when Brisbane took a 69-23 lead to the sheds against Gold Coast in Round 1, but reality set in quickly after that.
They hung on to win that match, but nine losses followed until they belted a woeful Fremantle side in Round 12.
Brisbane did claim another three wins over the second half of the season, but a final round loss to North Melbourne saw them handed their first wooden spoon since 1998.
The stat that really jumps off the page for Brisbane is their inside 50 differential. In 2017, the Lions managed a competition-low 46.3 inside 50s a game while conceding a competition high 60.9.
Despite wiping 300 points off their total score conceded in 2017 compared to the season before, they were still almost 300 points worse than the next worse defensive team. That inside 50 differential proved a huge culprit in the club’s defensive woes.
As promising as the development of some of their bookend players in Harris Andrews and Eric Hipwood has been, there’s no way either could have flourished any more than they did with that discrepancy in supply.
In many ways, this season was a turning of the corner for the Lions.
While we saw the likes of Hipwood, Jarrod Berry, Ben Keays and Rhys Mathieson start to really emerge, many mature-aged recruits of the Justin Leppitsch era such as Tom Bell and Allen Christensen faded away.
That didn’t make for a great win-loss ratio, but it sure sets the club up for a brighter future.
Best win
Round 15: Essendon 11.16 (82) def. by Brisbane Lions 13.12 (90)
In front of over 41,000 Bombers fans, the match looked to be getting away from the young Lions in the fourth quarter when they fell behind by 27 points.
In actual fact, they were just getting started. Five unanswered goals for the visitors and six of the game’s last seven saw them steal a famous eight-point victory against their finals-hopeful opponents.
It wasn’t Brisbane’s biggest win of the year, but it was an astonishing display of resilience not seen from the club in years.
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Worst loss
Round 23: Brisbane Lions 11.13 (79) def. by North Melbourne 19.16 (130)
Brisbane entered the wooden spoon showdown as warm favourites after playing very strongly over the previous three weeks.
They started strongly in front of their home fans, but fell away badly after quarter time, conceding 12 goals to three over the second and third quarters, before eventually losing by 51 points.
It wasn’t the only time they’d been made to look second rate in 2017, but to have it happen at home against a fellow cellar dweller was disheartening.
What needs to happen next year?
I’ve said it a lot over the last few years, but trimming the average losing margin is a must for Brisbane over the next few seasons.
While they were able to cut it from 61 points last year to 47 this year, they were still uncompetitive in a few too many losses.
It’s important Chris Fagan instills a higher standard of effort in his club now so as to not to raise a list of future downhill skiers.
The vast majority of Brisbane young guns are under contract for some time, with the only notable players needing to put pen to paper next year being recent draftees Hugh McCluggage and Alex Witherden.
Early prediction
On paper it didn’t look as if Brisbane’s improvement was that drastic in 2017, but watching them play this year it was easy to see there was something different about them.
The foundations are starting to fall in place, but the Lions will very much continue to be a work in progress next season.
Prediction: 15th-18th