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Following the retirement of legends Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith and Keven Mealamu, many wondered if the All Blacks would suffer a decline.
They would probably remain number one, but many thought that perhaps the gap between the All Blacks and the rest of the pack would narrow.
The early signs, however, seemed to disprove this. The All Blacks beat Wales 3-0 and then won the Rugby Championship in the most dominant fashion possible.
Since then, however, the All Blacks have stumbled. Of the eight matches they have won against Tier 1 teams (of which I do not include Italy), they only have a 62 per cent win rate. Were it not for poor restarts and Bernard Foley’s goal-kicking they could have only a 50 per cent win rate.
Of the last eight matches they only have a 50 per cent win rate at home. Were it not for poor restarts and Bernard Foley’s goal-kicking, they could have only a 25 per cent win rate, and the first loss to Australia in New Zealand since 2001, and against one of the poorest Wallaby teams of the professional era.
29-40 Loss to Ireland in Chicago
First up came the loss to Ireland in Chicago on the sixth November 2016. This was New Zealand’s first ever loss to Ireland, and it was achieved at a neutral venue.
This, at first, was put down to Ireland’s brilliant match – and they were fantastic – and some commentators mentioned the fact that both the All Blacks’ first choice locks being out.
21-9 win over Ireland in Dublin
The score of the return fixture belies how close the match was. Ireland were held up multiple times over the line, had much of the run of the play, and Fekitoa should have been given a red card, but escaped with a yellow.
This is not to devalue the All Blacks’ win, as they were worthy winners, but it was not nearly so comfortable as the score suggested.
(AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)
24-19 win over France in Paris
The All Blacks escaped with a narrow and unconvincing win against France in their final Test of the year. The All Blacks scored a couple of fortuitous tries, including a length of the field try scored off an intercept by Beauden Barrett when France was on hot on attack.
This was put down to the All Blacks being tired and mentally fatigued at the end of a long season. This nevertheless does not change the fact that this was an ordinary French outfit that had just lost to Australia’s B team.
30-15 win over the Lions at Eden Park
The All Blacks put on a very strong display, dominated through the forwards and tactical master class to comfortably beat the Lions in the first Test.
21-24 loss to the Lions in Wellington
Despite Sonny Bill Wiliams’ red card the All Blacks had all the possession and play. They blew a strong lead in the final 20 minutes of the match only after the Lions get yellow carded themselves and the match returned to parody at 14 men on 14.
This ended the All Blacks’s streak of 47 in a row at home, stretching all the way back to 2009.
15-15 draw with the Lions at Eden Park
Commentators were predicting a big turnaround from the All Blacks, with comments about how the All Blacks always come back strongly from a loss and never play two poor games in a row thrown about.
However, never in my life have I seen so many opportunities created and butchered – I counted five to six tries that should have been on bombed by the All Blacks, with Julian Savea and Beauden Barrett being the primary culprits.
Barrett’s kicking cost the All Blacks both the second and third Tests.
54-32 win over Wallabies in Sydney
The All Blacks raved to a 54-6 lead at half-time, and looked like world beaters.
From 54-6 up the Wallabies scored 28 straight points.
Hansen described the performance by saying: ‘he first 50 minutes was probably as good as rugby as you’ll see and the last 30 was probably the ugliest’. In regards to the second half he said ‘We threw poor passes, our skill execution was poor, our defence was poor, there wasn’t too much that was good really’
At the time many – including this author – thought it was as simple as the All Blacks switching off and mentally checking out. I still believe that this was at least partially the case After Bledisloe 2, however, I do not believe that is the whole story.
35-29 win over the Wallabies in Dunedin
The performance by the All Blacks was extremely poor.
They were guilty of inconsistent play and countless unforced errors, especially at the start of the match.
They came back stronger after the first 20 minutes, but despite the Wallabies’ embarrassing scrum, the Wallabies being unable to handle basic restarts and missing 38 of their 140 tackles and a 13-6 penalty count in their favour, the All Blacks’ only won the match at the death with a try stemming from a poor restart regather.
Was it simply a matter of the All Blacks not respecting the Wallabies enough? I do not believe so.
Conclusion
The All Blacks have not looked at all clinical or imperious since the Rugby Championship in 2016, aside from the first Test against the Lions.
They have lacked cohesiveness and the ability to finish in attack.
They now seem to be suffering the decline in form that many expected to occur after the 2015 Rugby World Cup.
Damian McKenzie is not Ben Smith, Sonny Bill Williams is not Ma’a Nonu, Barrett is not Dan Carter and none of their seven options are Richie McCaw.
More importantly, Kieran Read is not a leader of the calibre of McCaw.
Key players such as Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Aaron Cruden, and Charlie Faumuina are heading overseas, costing New Zealand its remarkable depth.
Whether the All Blacks’ dominance of the 2016 Rugby Championship was a blip, or whether the Wallabies and Springboks were just so poor last year that they made the All Blacks look better than they were, only time will tell.
I am not saying that the All Blacks are no longer the best team in the world – clearly, they are – but I believe Eddie Jones and England will be licking their lips in a way that they would not have been 12 months ago.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.