2017 New Zealand Warriors’ picture promised plenty of light but has instead painted a darkened portrait.
So where should Stephen Kearney look to change things up for 2018? Team statistics suggest the Warriors need to increase their risk/return levels on attack, and find efficiencies and effectiveness in their defence.
The following assessment is based on 2017 footage, and NRL.com rankings, according to counts of offloads, errors, all metres run, tackle breaks, line breaks, tackles, missed tackles and the all important four-pointer.
There is some comparison to the Warriors’ 2011 rankings which offers surprising insight.
Now, we all remember 2011, when the mighty Warriors stormed their way to a grand final. What was different then?
Do you think: A: they made the most errors, made the most tackles, AND missed the most tackles; or B: made the most metres and threw the most offloads?
Well whether you chose A or B, you are right, because the 2011 Warriors were more adventurous with the ball, and it bore fruit. They risked the offload more (1st in 2011 to 14th in 2017), and made more errors (1st to 15th), but it didn’t hamper results because they compensated for it by making the most metres (1st to ninth) and scored more tries (3rd to 13th).
They also busted more tackles (second to 15th) and completed more line breaks (3rd to 10th): they were likely throwing better passes and running great lines, but most importantly they were supporting the ball carrier.
They were the Warriors we know and love. How about the error count, surely it is terrible this season?! The error count is massively lower (1st: being worst in 2011 to 15th:second best!), but so is every attacking measure, by at least six ranking positions.
(AAP Image/David Rowland)
For the Warriors to regain their status as the most entertaining side in the NRL, they need to be throwing the offloads again. However, they have been missing an essential ingredient: a man in support.
How many times has there been a half break this season and the player has no support? Clearly, it is not being practised and needs to be on the training paddock to appear on game day.
But they give away way more penalties! Incorrect – discipline in the form of penalties conceded (5th to 12th) and possession (49% to 50%) is better than in 2011. But it means nothing if other disciplines are missing – such as supporting the ball carrier – turning half breaks into missed opportunities and letting frustration build.
This can kick off a snowball effect, leading to the silly, niggly penalties and blinkered defensive organisation, symptomatic of the second half efforts this season.
They say defence wins titles. The statistics say they are defending less (1st to sixth) and are not missing as many tackles as the 2011 vintage (1st to 13th). So this suggests that the 2011 team was fitter because they had to tackle more and still won games, but it is evidence that in 2011 they had a more efficient and effective defensive line.
Technically they need to employ a one-man low, one-man high system when taking down the big forwards.
They often tackle with two men high, so the ball carrier’s legs can keep pumping, requiring a third player to take the legs, usually Simon Mannering (how many times!).
The damage here is three fold: metres eaten by the pumping legs, numbers of defenders drawn into the tackle and inefficient tackle technique burning up valuable energy. Also, the Warriors need to improve their “manning up” communication.
Point to the guy you are marking, and tell the guys around you. If you’re both marking Jarrod Croker or Joey Leilua, then who’s marking Jordan Rapana or Nick Cotric? RTS or a ‘sweeper’ needs to usher the troops to where they are needed, a simple numbers game.
Ultimately, the 2017 Warriors can tackle, but it is ineffective and inefficient, and lacking essential communication. Opponents are making easy metres, and exploiting their defensive systems given the field position and numerical advantages that the Warriors offer them.
Finally, the total 2017 New Zealand Warriors’ statistical rankings are shaping up to be worse than in 2016. Throw the baby out with the bath water? Shut up. Only two key things really need to change: support on offence and technique on defence.
Let’s trust that the coaching staff read into the statistics and put plans into action for next season.
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