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Get the next coach right or Gold Coast will collapse

Expert
28th August, 2017
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Tom Lynch of the Gold Coast Suns reacts after their loss in the round 8 match between the Gold Coast Suns and Port Adelaide Power at Jiangwan Stadium in Shanghai, China, Sunday, May 14, 2017. (AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
Expert
28th August, 2017
20
2383 Reads

After a year that started with promise but ultimately ended in disaster and the sacking of a coach, the Gold Coast Suns are facing an off-season of radical change that will make or break their chances of success.

AFL list management series
18 – Brisbane Lions
16 – Carlton Blues
15 – North Melbourne Kangaroos
14 – Fremantle Dockers
13 – Collingwood Magpies
12 – Hawthorn Hawks
11 – St Kilda Saints
10 – Western Bulldogs
9 – Melbourne Demons
8 – Essendon Bombers
7 – Port Adelaide Power
6 – West Coast Eagles
5 – Sydney Swans
4 – GWS Giants
3 – Geelong Cats

2017 in short

Generally speaking, Gold Coast were most times able to play something like competitive footy whenever they got their midfield quartet of Gary Ablett, Michael Barlow, Jarryd Lyons and Jarrod Witts all on the field together.

That happened more of than not in the early part of the year but deteriorated rapidly in the latter half as first Barlow then Witts suffered season-ending injuries, and Ablett and Lyons became week-on-week-off propositions.

They ultimately finished the season with a run of eight consecutive losses, and managed just three goals in the final round, suffering a 115-point defeat at the hands of Port Adelaide – the biggest margin any team lost by all year.

If you’re keen on a more detailed review of Gold Coast’s 2017 season, Stirling Coates has written a great one.

Coach

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Right now, they don’t have one – Rodney Eade was told a few weeks ago that his contract would not be renewed, and vacated the position immediately, leading Dean Solomon to take over the role for the last three rounds.

There wouldn’t be any realistic chance of Solomon being appointed to the role long term – the Suns were quite bad under his control, losing by a total of 206 points across three games. None of the other assistants at Gold Coast will be considered either – it is abundantly clear that the Suns need fresh blood.

The choice then is between going after an experienced candidate, or an untried one. An experienced candidate brings with it at least some guaranteed level of competence and stability, while an untried candidate could be the next Luke Beveridge, but has just as much chance of being the next Mark Neeld.

An experienced coach would seem like the logical choice for the Suns as their immediate focus should be to build a stable platform for a longer-term future, but it’s not clear who would be the likely candidate in terms of genuinely realistic propositions.

Brett Ratten might be someone to consider, having led Carlton to several finals series and now been a part of a very successful Hawthorn dynasty. Ratten did say earlier this year he would consider another senior coaching role if the opportunity came up.

There’s also been some talk about Gold Coast possibly poaching Brad Scott from North Melbourne, and if you take a Sportsbet market as gospel, he’s currently the favourite there. They did approach him three years ago as a possible candidate when they ultimately hired Rodney Eade.

Ratten and Scott would both bring with them a certain level of experience and confidence that they know how to run a football club, but both would also have the question mark that they’ve spent a significant amount of time as senior coaches elsewhere without delivering a flag, and there’s no reason to expect they’ll do any better at the Suns.

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If the Suns go down the untried route, Stewart Dew at Sydney would be my first port of call – he seems well entrenched at the Swans, but with the AFL pulling the strings perhaps Gold Coast could make him a Godfather offer.

North Melbourne coach Brad Scott

(AAP Image/David Crosling)

Captain

Steven May and Tom J Lynch took over as co-captains from Gary Ablett at the start of the year, becoming the first captains of the club to have played their entire careers there.

It’s hard to say how much of a success their leadership was in the first year. The Suns didn’t have a good season, but there are a lot of contributing factors behind that. They were certainly an improvement on the regularly-injured wantaway Ablett.

Expect the arrangement to continue in 2018, as there isn’t much in the way of other candidates, though David Swallow having played close to a full season would be in the conversation if a change was to be made.

The only concern here is that Lynch is out of contract at the end of 2018 and sure to be heavily courted by all and sundry – but we’ll talk more about that soon.

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List management

Given that they have only been around for seven years, it is no surprise that the veteran talent at the top of the Suns’ list is a bit uninspiring. Every player over 28 on the Gold Coast list has played at least one game for another club.

That’s not to say there isn’t talent here. There’s names like Gary Ablett, Michael Barlow, Jarrod Harbrow and Pearce Hanley – all have played elite footy at times, and Ablett even better than that.

But Ablett is almost certainly going to be elsewhere in 2018 and Harbrow may well be also. Barlow is recovering from the second broken leg of his career, and Hanley has made only a negligible impact in his short time as a Sun.

Barring some miraculous turnaround of events, these players aren’t going to contribute anything to Gold Coast’s next push into finals, and it’s debatable how much value they offer as a leadership core. Most likely they will all be cut at soonest convenience.

Further down the scale we can see the four surviving members of the original Gold Coast generation who have become reliable quality players – Aaron Hall, Steven May, Tom Lynch and David Swallow.

David Swallow Gold Coast Suns AFL 2017

(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

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In this same section of the list we can see some Gold Coast originals who have done exactly not that. Matt Shaw, Tom Nicholls, Brandon Matera, Trent McKenzie, Rory Thompson and Sam Day – some of them may still come good, and the latter two in particular can blame injury to a degree, but they should be entering the peak of their career and they’re not.

Instead, it’s that quartet – Lynch, May, Swallow and Hall – who are the platform around which the rest of the team must be built, and some canny trading has added Jarryd Lyons and Jarrod Witts, in a similar age range, to that group.

There is more talent coming through after them. Adam Saad (23), Jack Martin, Kade Kolodjashnij (both 22), Touk Miller (21), Peter Wright, Brayden Fiorini (20) and Callum Ah Chee (19) should all be coming into their prime over the next five years or so.

After that, you’ve got the four from the top ten of last year’s draft – Ben Ainsworth, Jack Bowes, Will Brodie and Jack Scrimshaw. If they too develop as expected, then Gold Coast will have a steady train of improving talent to keep the club going.

Gold Coast players by age
Gary Ablett – 33yr 3mth
Michael Rischitelli – 31yr 7mth
Matthew Rosa – 30yr 9mth
Michael Barlow – 29yr 8mth
Jarrod Harbrow – 29yr 1mth
Pearce Hanley – 28yr 9mth
Daniel Currie – 28yr 6mth
Ryan Davis (R) – 28yr 2mth
Jarrad Grant – 28yr 1mth
Keegan Brooksby (R) – 27yr 4mth
Aaron Hall – 26yr 9mth
Rory Thompson – 26yr 5mth
Steven May – 25yr 7mth
Matt Shaw – 25yr 6mth
Tom Nicholls – 25yr 5mth
Brandon Matera – 25yr 5mth
Trent McKenzie – 25yr 4mth
Jarryd Lyons – 25yr 1mth
Mitch Hallahan – 25yr
Sam Day – 24yr 11mth
Jarrod Witts – 24yr 11mth
Tom J Lynch – 24yr 9mth
David Swallow – 24yr 9mth
Alex Sexton – 23yr 8mth
Adam Saad – 23yr 1mth
Sean Lemmens – 22yr 9mth
Jesse Lonergan – 22yr 9mth
Jack Martin – 22yr 6mth
Jack Leslie – 22yr 4mth
Mackenzie Willis – 22yr
Kade Kolodjashnij – 22yr
Cameron Loersch (R) – 21yr 10mth
Touk Miller – 21yr 6mth
Peter Wright – 20yr 11mth
Josh Schoenfeld – 20yr 1mth
Jesse Joyce – 20yr
Brayden Fiorini – 20yr
Max Spencer (R) – 19yr 10mth
Callum Ah Chee – 19yr 10mth
Darcy Macpherson (R) – 19yr 9mth
Jack Bowes – 19yr 7mth
Ben Ainsworth – 19yr 6mth
Will Brodie – 19yr
Brad Scheer – 18yr 11mth
Jack Scrimshaw – 18yr 11mth

In terms of this year’s out of contract players, the only immediate decision likely to be of consequence for the Suns is what to do with Jarrod Harbrow.

He played some great football at times for them in 2017, but was also hit with punishments during the year for poor discipline.

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Although there hasn’t been any rumour of him looking to move to a new club, the fact he is out of contract is potentially telling.

It is looking ahead to those players coming out of contract in 2018 however that we see what Gold Coast’s top priority across all areas must be: re-signing Tom J Lynch.

Tom Lynch Tom J Lynch Sam Day Gold Coast Suns AFL 2015

(AAP Image/Matt Roberts)

The star forward is the most important of that middle-aged group that will make up the core of the Gold Coast list going forward – the Lynchpin, if you’ll pardon the pun.

One of the best key forwards in the game, you can expect virtually every other club in the game to have a red hot crack if there is even a sniff of interest from him in moving.

If the Suns lose him it will be an absolutely catastrophic result – that core group likely falls apart, and Gold Coast are set back at least four years.

Their first priority this off-season should be to feel him out and if possible, sign him to a long term deal immediately.

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One would expect however that he is more likely to want to wait until at least part way through 2018 to see if things change for the better at the Suns, and fair enough if so.

If Lynch does go, then the Suns will likely need to make significant revisions to their longterm list strategy – they shouldn’t do anything too wild this off-season until they know for sure what his decision will be.

However Adam Saad, Kade Kolodjashnij, Aaron Hall and Brayden Fiorini would be others in the 2018 group to ideally look to re-sign before next season begins.

Having all four of last year’s top ten draftees already locked away until the end of 2020 is a huge thumbs up.

Gold Coast players by contract status
2020
Ben Ainsworth
Jack Bowes
Will Brodie
Jack Scrimshaw

2019
Callum Ah Chee
Sam Day
Pearce Hanley
Jack Martin
Steven May
Touk Miller
Brad Scheer
David Swallow
Rory Thompson
Peter Wright

2018
Gary Ablett
Michael Barlow
Brayden Fiorini
Aaron Hall
Jesse Joyce
Kade Kolodjashnij
Sean Lemmens
Jack Leslie
Tom J Lynch
Tom Nicholls
Matt Rosa
Adam Saad
Alex Sexton

Out of contract
Keegan Brooksby (R)
Ryan Davis (R)
Jarrad Grant
Mitch Hallahan
Jarrod Harbrow
Cameron Loersch (R)
Jesse Lonergan
Darcy Macpherson (R)
Brandon Matera
Trent McKenzie
Michael Rischitelli
Josh Schoenfeld
Matt Shaw
Max Spencer (R)
Mackenzie Willis

Unconfirmed
Daniel Currie
Jarryd Lyons
Jarrod Witts

Aaron Hall Gold Coast Suns AFL 2017

(Photo by Jason O’Brien/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Delistings and retirements

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Gold Coast haven’t announced any official retirements or delistings yet.

Michael Rischitelli and Jarrod Harbrow may be in line to retire, as both are currently out of contract, though Harbrow in particular would be a chance of going on. Gary Ablett may retire with a year left on his contract if not traded.

Jarrad Grant, Mitch Hallahan, Trent Mckenzie and Matt Shaw will all likely be delisted, and some others may be cut too.

Free agency

The Suns are still yet to have had any players eligible for free agency in their history. That’ll change next year but for now they have nothing to worry about in terms of departures.

That means they should strongly consider going after a free agent from another club, one who can bolster the strength of that middle-aged group, so long as the costs involved don’t impact upon their ability to retain Lynch.

Tom Rockliff, David Zaharakis and Jackson Trengove in particular are the three I would be asking the question of – while they would all be fairly unlikely, they fit the bill and there’s nothing to lose by having a crack.

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The other consideration would be bringing in an experienced veteran on a short-term deal to lead into coaching. Jarrad McVeigh is someone who is already said to be looking at this kind of move, and Kade Simpson and Dale Morris would be worth sounding out also.

Trade period

The big question for the Suns this off-season is what to do with Gary Ablett should he, as expected, request a trade home to Geelong.

My expectation is that it will be a choice between losing Ablett to retirement or losing Ablett to the Cats, and in that scenario the Suns surely must eventually pick the latter because the former stands to do them no benefit.

I wouldn’t expect to get anything of value in the trade for Ablett. He has perhaps one or two years left in his body and even that is doubtful. A swap of late picks ala the trades for Sam Mitchell or Jordan Lewis last year should be the order of the day.

Gold Coast have little to gain here other than to clear one of their major headaches out of the way, and they should look to do it as quickly and respectfully as possible.

Gary Ablett Junior Gold Coast Suns AFL 2016

(AAP Image/Jason O’Brien)

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They are also likely to see Brandon Matera traded elsewhere, perhaps to Fremantle or West Coast, or perhaps to a Victorian club.

Again, wouldn’t expect to see much in a return here – Matera just hasn’t played consistent enough footy to justify anything higher than a third-round draft pick at the absolute most.

In terms of trade targets, I believe the Suns should hold off on giving up their draft picks for established talent until they know for certain what Tom Lynch will do and can build their future list strategy around that.

The one that would potentially be worth having a crack at is Charlie Cameron, if he does indeed request a trade back to Queensland. Brisbane are on the front foot here, but the Suns have nothing to lose by asking the question, and players wanting to go to Queensland is a rare enough occurrence that you simply must take advantage if you can.

They might also try to bring in a small fish at good value, as they did with Jarryd Lyons and Jarrod Witts last year. Perhaps look at players like Bailey Dale or more likely Lukas Webb from the Western Bulldogs as targets here.

Draft

First three rounds: 2, 19, 22, 24, Richmond’s second-round pick, 37.

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The Suns will feature in the early stages of the draft yet again, in fact, this year the top two eighteen-year-olds will both be headed to Queensland.

Assuming the Lions take Cam Rayner with the first pick, the decision for Gold Coast will likely come down to one of Luke Davies-Uniacke, Paddy Dow or Adam Cerra, with Davies-Uniacke probably the leading contender at this early stage.

(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

After that they’ve got a trio of early picks in the second round with which they can sweep up any sliding talent.

A key defender, an inside midfielder and a genuine small forward would all be positions to consider targeting.

In terms of Academy players, the Suns probably won’t to have to match any early bids this year, but should pick up ruckman Brayden Crossley at some point in the draft.

Outlook

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The key to Gold Coast’s future is to re-sign Tom J Lynch, and the likely path to doing that is to make immediate change that gives him confidence the club is on the right track.

That starts with hiring the right senior coach and likely involves some change among the assistant coaches too. This is an appointment Gold Coast simply cannot afford to get wrong.

If the Suns do make the right call here and that leads to Lynch signing for the long term, and they are generally able to keep the list together and developing well, they will rise up the table swiftly.

It might sound a bit optimistic, but if all goes well then they could be in premiership contention as soon as three years from now.

That scenario requires them to make every decision a right one, though, and in their short history so far it’s fair to say that has not been their forte.

If Lynch leaves, I’d be surprised to seem them do anything of significance before the mid 2020s at best.

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