The Carlton Blues are on the right path, but they face an active off-season that may prove difficult to navigate. Nail it, and it will be another step forward on the road to relevance.

AFL list management series
18 – Brisbane Lions
17 – Gold Coast Suns
15 – North Melbourne Kangaroos
14 – Fremantle Dockers
13 – Collingwood Magpies
12 – Hawthorn Hawks
11 – St Kilda Saints
10 – Western Bulldogs
9 – Melbourne Demons
8 – Essendon Bombers
7 – Port Adelaide Power
6 – West Coast Eagles
5 – Sydney Swans
4 – GWS Giants
3 – Geelong Cats

2017 in short

Much like their 2016 season, Carlton were able to record a number of rousing wins in the first half of the year, before mounting injuries and the tiring of youth made it more difficult for them to be competitive in the latter half.

They defeated three sides that ultimately qualified for finals – Essendon, Sydney and GWS – and capped off the year with a win over Hawthorn in Round 22, which broke a streak of eight losses and saw them avoid the wooden spoon.

The year delivered both a sense of pride and progress, while also seeing Carlton finish low enough to feature early in the draft – all things considered a commendable success.

Stirling Coates has written a more detailed review of Carlton’s 2017 if you’re keen on that.

Coach

Brendon Bolton has been in the job two years now and fans are ecstatic with the results he has delivered.

While the Blues have still finished in the lower part of the ladder in both years of his tenure, there’s been a change in culture and attitude led by him, and his youth-first policy has displayed some promising talents.

The Blues under Bolton are a hard-to-play-against team with a focus on defence, conceding the fewest points of the bottom five teams this year. This has been good for morale as it prevents blowouts and gives Carlton a certain pride in the way they play.

Bolton clearly has great buy-in and loyalty from his players, and has been able to create a team structure that gets the best out of a limited amount of talent.

The challenge for him in years to come will be to eventually make the leap to more attacking footy, when the Blues have enough talent on the books that they are ready to play it.

Given his extensive experience under Alastair Clarkson, it’s reasonable to have high hopes that he will do well in this regard.

Captain

Marc Murphy has been the leader of the Blues for a number of years now and that looks likely to remain the case.

He might not be heralded as one of the top captains in the AFL, but is clearly the best current choice as someone who is experienced and committed to the club.

You would expect that perhaps in two or three years he will look to hand down the title to one of the younger generation, with Patrick Cripps perhaps the most likely candidate as he’ll be coming into his prime around then.

List management

Carlton’s list has the talented concentrated at two ends: a group of veterans who are the core of the team, a promising troupe of youth who will one day take the reins, and a vast wasteland of unremarkable players in between.

Kade Simpson (33), Dale Thomas, Marc Murphy (both 30), Sam Rowe (29), Bryce Gibbs, Matthew Kreuzer (both 28), Ed Curnow, Matthew Wright and Levi Casboult (all 27) make up that experienced core.

Yet Simpson, Thomas, Rowe, Kreuzer and Casboult are all without contracts for next year, and Gibbs may once again consider his trade options.

The worst-case scenario, seeing all of them depart, would leave Murphy, Curnow and Wright making up the entirety of Carlton’s experienced leaders. The club can’t allow this to happen – that veteran core provides leadership and stability that the youth is not ready to.

Between this group and the youth coming through, there’s essentially no reliable talent to speak of between the ages of 24 and 26, with the only shining light in this group being – and I can’t believe I’m saying it – the reinvigorated Liam Jones.

Tellingly, seven players out of ten in this age group have come to Carlton from other clubs, and the other three have played a combined 45 games, and only three games between them in 2017.

It represents a period of poor recruiting during the late Brett Ratten and Mick Malthouse years, where little to no lasting talent was brought in, which prompting recruiters to fill this age group with players from other clubs with – no real success.

However as we go further down the list we can see change for the good beginning to occur – Sam Docherty (23), Lachie Plowman, Patrick Cripps (both 22), Jarrod Pickett (21), Caleb Marchbank, Charlie Curnow, David Cunningham (all 20), Jacob Weitering, Jack Silvagni, Harry McKay, Sam Petrevski-Seton and Zac Fisher (all 19).

Carlton’s longterm backline is already largely built, with Weitering, Marchbank, Plowman and Docherty projecting to be staples of their defence for years to come.

However and Curnow in the midfield are the genuine superstars that the team will revolve around. They both fit the mould as tall midfielders with elite traits, Curnow in particular having a valuable ability to float forward and kick goals.

It’s the forward line and ruck where the Blues are most in need of young talent, and they’ll want to continue adding midfield depth as well.

When this group of emerging young stars mature and become the core of the team, we will see Carlton rise up the table.

Carlton players by age
Kade Simpson – 33yr 3mth
Dennis Armfield – 30yr 8mth
Dale Thomas – 30yr 2mth
Marc Murphy – 30yr 1mth
Alex Silvagni (R) – 29yr 11mth
Sam Rowe – 29yr 9mth
Simon White – 29yr 2mth
Rhys Palmer – 28yr 6mth
Bryce Gibbs – 28yr 5mth
Matthew Kreuzer – 28yr 3mth
Ed Curnow – 27yr 9mth
Matthew Wright – 27yr 8mth
Levi Casboult – 27yr 5mth
Ciaran Sheehan (R) – 26yr 9mth
Liam Jones – 26yr 6mth
Andrew Phillips – 26yr 1mth
Matthew Korchek (R) – 25yr 10mth
Daniel Gorringe – 25yr 2mth
Billie Smedts – 25yr 2mth
Jed Lamb – 24yr 10mth
Dylan Buckley – 24yr 5mth
Sam Kerridge – 24yr 4mth
Liam Sumner – 24yr
Blaine Boekhorst – 23yr 11mth
Sam Docherty – 23yr 10mth
Andrew Gallucci (R) – 23yr 7mth
Nick Graham – 23yr 2mth
Lachie Plowman – 22yr 11mth
Kristian Jaksch – 22yr 10mth
Ciaran Byrne – 22yr 8mth
Patrick Cripps – 22yr 5mth
Jarrod Pickett – 21yr
Caleb Marchbank – 20yr 8mth
Jesse Glass-McCasker (R) – 20yr 7mth
Charlie Curnow – 20yr 6mth
David Cuningham – 20yr 4mth
Jacob Weitering – 19yr 9mth
Jack Silvagni – 19yr 8mth
Harry McKay – 19yr 8mth
Sam Petrevski-Seton – 19yr 6mth
Cameron Polson – 19yr 5mth
Harrison Macreadie – 19yr 4mth
Kym LeBois (R) – 19yr 3mth
Zac Fisher – 19yr 2mth
Pat Kerr – 19yr
Tom Williamson – 18yr 8mth

Carlton must start deciding which of this year’s out of contract players will make the cut for 2018, and which will not.

Priority number one must be to re-sign David Cuningham, a first-round pick from the 2015 draft who has played 11 games and, while yet to establish himself, has certainly shown enough to keep around.

After that, the Blues most lock down whom of their out-of-contract veterans will be staying. They can’t afford to let them all go, but may have to consider moving on some if there’s a good return on offer.

Kade Simpson and Dale Thomas should both get new one-year deals, and perhaps Sam Rowe too if the club is confident he can recover from his ACL injury.

Matthew Kreuzer, Levi Casboult and Bryce Gibbs (contracted until the end of 2019) will all have interested suitors. We’ll talk more about them soon.

Sam Docherty, Marc Murphy and Jack Silvagni are the key players coming out of contract next year that the Blues should aim to re-sign sooner rather than later, but there’s no rush – one wouldn’t expect any of the three to be a serious flight risk, they all seem to be dyed-in-the-wool Carlton people.

Carlton players by contract status
2021
Sam Petrevski-Seton
Jacob Weitering

2020
Zac Fisher
Harrison Macreadie
Tom Williamson

2019
Ciaran Byrne
Patrick Cripps
Charlie Curnow
Ed Curnow
Bryce Gibbs
Liam Jones
Harry McKay
Andrew Phillips
Jarrod Pickett

2018
Sam Docherty
Pat Kerr
Sam Kerridge
Marc Murphy
Rhys Palmer
Cameron Polson
Jack Silvagni
Bille Smedts
Matthew Wright

Out of contract
Dennis Armfield
Blaine Boekhorst
Dylan Buckley
Levi Casboult
David Cuningham
Andrew Gallucci (R)
Jesse Glass-McCasker (R)
Nick Graham
Kristian Jaksch
Matt Korchek (R)
Matthew Kreuzer
Jed Lamb
Kym Lebois (R)
Sam Rowe
Ciaran Sheehan (R)
Alex Silvagni (R)
Kade Simpson
Liam Sumner
Dale Thomas
Simon White

Unconfirmed
Daniel Gorringe
Caleb Marchbank
Lachie Plowman

Delistings and retirements

Dennis Armfield is Carlton’s only confirmed departure.

One would suspect however, that there will be some serious cutting to come, with Dylan Buckley, Kristian Jaksch, Liam Sumner and Simon White all surely on the chopping block, and likely a few others as well.

Free agency

Levi Casboult (unrestricted)
Matthew Kreuzer (unrestricted)
Kade Simpson (unrestricted)
Simon White (unrestricted)

Kade Simpson will likely re-sign with the Blues for another year, and in the event that he doesn’t it would presumably only be to retire. Simon White won’t likely get another opportunity, at Carlton or anywhere else.

Matthew Kreuzer has a clause for another year but is yet to activate it, despite having played the requisite number of games required. Likely this is because he and Carlton will be negotiating an alternative arrangement given his excellent season – presumably a multi-year deal with a greater financial offer than the extension clause would provide.

If the Blues wanted to find a way of bringing in as much draft capital as possible, then letting Kreuzer test the market could be one way to do it.

If signed by another team he would likely bring in at least a second-round draft pick, which would be handy, as the Blues have already traded this year’s second-rounder to Geelong.

It is a similar case of affairs with Levi Casboult – a valuable enough player to have around, but one for whom the Blues might get a worthwhile return if he leaves.

As it stands, the Blues have only one pick in the top 30 and while both Kreuzer and Casboult would be good to retain, they simply must find a way to be more involved in the draft this year.

However, I would be looking to re-sign both Kreuzer and Casboult and instead use a Bryce Gibbs trade to get back into the draft, while proactively hitting the free agency market to sign some veteran talent from elsewhere that can cover his loss.

Tom Rockliff is the player to look at here. He wouldn’t likely be in a premiership side at Carlton, or perhaps not even a finals one, but he could be a core player for them for several years and wouldn’t cost any trade capital.

Consider this: Rockliff could provide at least three-quarters of the production Gibbs does, and they would not have to give up anything to get him while they would pick up a first round pick minimum from letting Gibbs go.

Carlton have been touted as a possible destination for Jarrad McVeigh should he not get a new contract from Sydney. This would be a great move – he’d be an affordable quality addition to the team and then, from 2019 onwards, the coaching panel.

Trade period

As suggested above, the best move for the Blues this off-season is to trade Gibbs to Adelaide.

For a team that is trying to draft youth and rebuild the playing list, the Blues need to have more than just the third pick overall inside the top 30, and while they may not like it, that means letting someone go.

Of the senior players who may leave, Gibbs is the one who will get them the biggest return, and his output can be at least somewhat replaced by hitting the free agency market with cash to spend.

Casboult and Kreuzer would net Carlton only a minor return, are not as easily replaced, and would prevent Carlton from signing any free agents of their own (as that would have an impact on compensation picks).

At this early vantage point, it looks like Adelaide will lose both Jake Lever and Charlie Cameron this off-season. That likely nets them pick ten from Melbourne and pick 19 from Brisbane at a minimum, in addition to having their own pick in the mid-to-late teens.

If the two clubs sit down and get on the same page there’s no reason why they should not be able to work out a deal that benefits them both this time around.

In terms of players who could be traded into the club, Carlton have once again been linked to some out-of-contract Greater Western Sydney Giants – Josh Kelly, Devon Smith, Jacob Hopper and Matthew Kennedy.

If the Blues believe they’re a legitimate chance to aquire Kelly, they should move heaven and Earth to do so. He’s the only player on the market this year that they should realistically consider involving pick 3 in a trade for.

Smith, Hopper and Kennedy would all be fine additions, but the question mark over them is what needs to be given up to make it happen.

Pick 3 shouldn’t be budged for any of them, but the Blues’ next pick in the draft is No.38, which will be laughingly rejected by the Giants.

If Carlton do acquire some more picks in this year’s draft via the departure of Kreuzer, Casboult or Gibbs, this is where they might come to play.

If not, then the Blues would likely need to either downgrade pick 3 or dip into their 2018 draft picks to facilitate a trade – both very unappealing scenarios.

Draft

First three rounds: 3, 39.

The deal to acquire Caleb Marchbank and Jarrod Pickett last year has left Carlton a little slim on 2017 draft picks, but they do again head to the draft with an early selection.

The biggest need on their list for mine is a key forward to partner Harry McKay in their future forward line, and the only tall player they’d consider that early this year would be Jarrod Brander.

Brander hasn’t really settled as either a forward or a defender just yet, so the Blues will likely instead opt for a midfielder and bid their time waiting for a key forward option to present itself in the future.

Cam Rayner will certainly be gone by this point, but any of Luke Davies-Uniacke, Paddy Dow or Adam Cerra could be a chance to join the Blues.

Outlook

There are a lot of moving parts in the off-season this year for Carlton – players who could go out, players who could come in, and all the while the need to gather more draft picks.

To summarise, my strategy if managing the Blues this year would be to re-sign Kreuzer and Casboult, and go after a mature midfielder via free agency, with Tom Rockliff being the most appealing on the market.

Rockliff would replace most of the output of Bryce Gibbs, who would be traded to Adelaide in order to acquire more draft capital. This could see the Blues hold three picks in the first twenty without really reducing the competitiveness of the team any great amount.

Some of these picks might be spun off in trades with GWS, with Josh Kelly being the top priority but Devon Smith, Jacob Hopper and Matthew Kennedy all on the radar – otherwise, they are taken to the draft.

This is a strategy that would allow the Blues to make the maximum possible investment into talented youth, without reducing too much that veteran core that is vital for providing stability and leadership.

In a longer term sense, if Carlton continue down the path of consistently investing in youth and are able to develop and keep together their talent in a way that Brendon Bolton’s tenure so far suggests they can, it will eventually pay dividends.

It won’t happen overnight though. All going swimmingly, I would project them to be in the mix for a return to finals after the turn of the decade, with the mid-2020s likely to be their soonest possible window for premiership contention.