The Socceroos’ clash with Japan tonight will have a big say in whether Australia qualifies for the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia. This is the The Roar’s full guide to what implications each result will have on the Aussies’ chances.
We’re currently in the third round of the Asian Football Confederation’s (AFC) Preliminary Competition, which began in August 2016.
The 12 nations that progressed from the second round were split into two groups of six, with Australia sorted into Group B. Below is Group B’s current standings.
| Position | Country | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | +/- | Points |
| 1st | Japan | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 17 |
| 2nd | Saudi Arabia | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +6 | 16 |
| 3rd | Australia | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | +6 | 16 |
| 4th | UAE | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 5th | Iraq | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 5 |
| 6th | Thailand | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
The top two teams in each group will progress automatically to the World Cup.
The third-placed teams in each group face each other in a two-leg playoff, with the winner of that fixture playing the fourth-ranked team from CONCACAF (North and Central America) for the last spot in the World Cup.
Australia is currently in third, but level with second-placed Saudia Arabia on both points and goal difference following their shock loss to the UAE last night.
Tonight’s clash against first-placed Japan has huge implications for the whole group. Here’s what the fallout of each result will be.
Australia wins
If the Socceroos win tonight, they automatically qualify for the World Cup.
Even if they were to suffer a shock loss to Thailand in their last group match, Japan and Saudia Arabia play their last game against each other, meaning only one would be able to surpass Australia’s points total of 19.
Draw
In the event of a draw, the Socceroos would at the very least finish third, pitting them against South Korea or Uzbekistan from Group A in the third-placed playoff.
However, all the Socceroos would need to do is defeat winless Thailand at AAMI Park in Melbourne on September 5 to finish in the top two and automatically qualify.
(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
If they were to draw with Thailand however – which they did in Bangkok earlier – they would require either Japan to defeat or draw with Saudia Arabia or for the Saudis crush Japan and put their goal difference below ours.
A boilover from Thailand, however, would mean Australia would require a Japanese victory over Saudi Arabia to avoid a third-placed playoff.
Australia loses
Things get a lot dicier for the Socceroos if Japan emerge as victors from tonight’s game. They’d then require a win against Thailand and a draw between Japan and Saudi Arabia to sneak into the top two.
A win over Thailand coupled with a Japan win will also get the Socceroos through, a draw with Thailand coupled with a Japan win, or a loss to Thailand coupled with an enormous Japanese victory will still benefit Australia.
Two losses for Australia could see them eliminated altogether, although it would require the UAE to absolutely demolish Iraq in their last game.
If the Socceroos aren’t able to secure a top-two finish in Group B, they’ll have to play a two-leg fixture against’s Group A’s third-placed team – most likely South Korea.
While Uzbekistan are currently in third, they have a much easier run home than second-placed South Korea. Fourth-placed Syria are unlikely to overtake either side, while first-placed Iran are guaranteed top spot.
If Australia were to progress past that stage, they’d have to play another two-leg playoff to qualify – this one against the fourth-placed North and Central American side.
The CONCACAF fifth round has only just passed the halfway point, although at this stage it looks as if the Socceroos could be facing off against the USA or Panama for a World Cup spot.
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