With their bold pursuit of superstars Dustin Martin and Josh Kelly, North Melbourne might be the club that defines the 2017 off-season – or they might be about fizzle out in hillarious, knee-slapping fashion.

Update: Dustin Martin re-signed, like, the same day this was published. So ignore all the stuff about him!

2017 in short

North were widely predicted to drop down the ladder in 2017 after making the decision to move on several veterans including Brent Harvey, and those predictions proved to be accurate.

AFL list management series
18 – Brisbane Lions
17 – Gold Coast Suns
16 – Carlton Blues
14 – Fremantle Dockers
13 – Collingwood Magpies
12 – Hawthorn Hawks
11 – St Kilda Saints
10 – Western Bulldogs
9 – Melbourne Demons
8 – Essendon Bombers
7 – Port Adelaide Power
6 – West Coast Eagles
5 – Sydney Swans
4 – GWS Giants
3 – Geelong Cats

Highlights of the year included a nine-goal win over Adelaide that still can’t be explained by math or science, and two spirit-raising victories over Melbourne that took the club’s ongoing streak against them to seventeen consecutive games.

Lowlights would have to be four games all lost by less than a goal, but while these stung, they do make a point that North were more competitive more often than their final ladder position would suggest.

Stirling Coates has written a more detailed review of North Melbourne’s 2017, it’s worth the read.

Coach

North Melbourne obviously heard I was writing this piece for today and so yesterday announced a contract extension for Brad Scott until the end of 2020, removing any need to speculate about the possibility of him pursuing the Gold Coast job. Cheers lads.

Why would the club offer Scott a two-year extension after a bottom-four finish without waiting until part way into next season to see if he can offer an improved performance in 2018? Good question, but first let’s talk a little bit about Brad Scott more generally.

I’ve already written about him a little this year, like here and here. The short version is that he has played a vital role in rescuing North from the potential-relocation-muck, but does need to continue to evolve as a coach if he is to stay relevant.

He showed some progress towards that in the latter half of this year, making a greater effort to blood youth, and I very much approve of his offence-first gameplan. When that youth becomes mature talent, their muscle memory will know how to kick goals.

Although it is always frustrating to see a team dip down after falling short in a premiership assault, and this can often lead to a coach sacking, it must be acknowledged that although he acts out in the media sometimes Scott has done an admirable job with a list most pundits haven’t rated all that highly.

Familiarity does breed contempt, and it is no surprise that a lot of North fans have gotten a bit sick and tired of him, but personally I have no quarrel with his extension. At the very least, I don’t see that there is any better alternative available.

Now, as to the timing of the extension – this is the sort of thing that would usually be handled perhaps early in 2018 rather than immediately after the close of the season, so it does raise some eyebrows. I see two contributing factors.

First of all, if there was any truth to the rumours about a link between Scott and the Suns, an extension puts an end to it. North and Scott both clearly wanted to continue the current arrangement, and putting pen to paper gives them both security in that regard.

Secondly, an extension makes it clear to any prospective new Roos that the club has and will continue to have stable leadership. A player considering a move wants to know that he’ll have a good relationship with the coach and to be confident on that, you must first be confident about who the coach will actually be.

North currently being in the race for a couple of big names, there was a need to make this clear to them. But we’ll talk more about all that later.

Captain

Jack Ziebell took over the captaincy in 2017 from Andrew Swallow and did an admirable job despite mounting injuries that made it difficult for him to play consistently in the latter half of the season.

As a result he missed a handful of games and the likes of Shaun Higgins and Robbie Tarrant as members of the leadership group also got the opportunity to captain the side.

It was the right decision to hand the reigns over to a new generation of leader – Swallow’s form wasn’t good enough during the year that you’d be comfortable rubber stamping his spot in the team each week.

Ziebell appears to be the right choice to lead the team for the next few years at least – he sets the right example for the youth to follow. Of the younger generation, Luke McDonald looks like a future skipper.

List management

The decision to end the careers of four veterans last year has clearly put North Melbourne’s list into a period of transition, and truth be told, that transition is still occurring.

The upper echelon of the list is occupied by a number of player who may not even be at the club next year, and some who even if they are, arguably shouldn’t be.

Jarrad Waite (34), Scott Thompson and Sam Gibson (both 31) are all yet to be signed on for 2018. Andrew Swallow (30), Lindsay Thomas (29) and Todd Goldstein (29) all have contracts for next year, but their form has been average to poor during 2017.

After that comes the players who currently make up the core of the team – Shaun Higgins (29), Robbie Tarrant (28), Jack Ziebell, Ben Cunnington (both 26), Ben Brown and surprisingly, Marley Williams (both 24).

Unfortunately, this group is a little awkwardly spread across a decently wide age range. If both Higgins and Tarrant were about three years younger, that’d be great – I don’t see them picking up a sudden case of the Benjamin Buttons, though.

It works okay for now, but when Higgins and Tarrant eventually move on the team will be a bit thin at the top, so it’s no surprise that North are targetting someone in this 24-26 age range – Dustin Martin.

It’s after this group that North’s genuine youthers begins, and in terms of the most genuinely promising propects, that includes Mason Wood, Taylor Garner (both 23), Luke McDonald, Braydon Preuss, Trent Dumont (22), Kayne Turner, Ed Vickers-Willis, Daniel Nielson, Sam Durdin, Paul Ahern (all 21), Declan Mountford, Ryan Clarke (both 20), Ben McKay and Jy Simpkin (both 19).

There’s some fine prospects in this group but there’s not necesarilly those future superstar types who make you stand up and take notice – except maybe Simpkin.

Even the most one-eyed North Melbourne fan on earth will admit to you that the team just doesn’t have as much talent as most in the league, and I can say that with confidence because I am the most one-eyed North Melbourne fan on earth.

Once again, this is where North’s off-season recruiting comes into play – adding a young superstar like 22-year-old Josh Kelly would really solidify this young generation.

North Melbourne players by age
Jarrad Waite – 34yr 6mth
Scott Thompson – 31yr 3mth
Sam Gibson – 31yr 3mth
Andrew Swallow – 30yr 2mth
Lindsay Thomas – 29yr 6mth
Shaun Higgins – 29yr 5mth
Todd Goldstein – 29yr 1mth
Lachie Hansen – 29yr
Robbie Tarrant – 28yr 4mth
Sam Wright – 27yr 1mth
Jack Ziebell – 26yr 6mth
Majak Daw – 26yr 5mth
Ben Cunnington – 26yr 1mth
Jamie Macmillan – 25yr 11mth
Ben Jacobs – 25yr 7mth
Aaron Mullett – 25yr 6mth
Shaun Atley – 24yr 11mth
Ben Brown – 24yr 9mth
Marley Williams – 24yr 1mth
Mason Wood – 23yr 11mth
Taylor Garner – 23yr 7mth
Jed Anderson – 23yr 6mth
Nathan Hrovat – 23yr 2mth
Luke McDonald – 22yr 6mth
Braydon Preuss – 22yr 2mth
Trent Dumont – 22yr 1mth
Kayne Turner – 21yr 7mth
Will Fordham (R) – 21yr 5mth
Ed Vickers-Willis – 21yr 5mth
Daniel Nielson – 21yr 3mth
Sam Durdin – 21yr 2mth
Paul Ahern – 21yr
Mitchell Hibberd – 20yr 11mth
Declan Mountford – 20yr 6mth
Corey Wagner – 20yr 5mth
Matthew Taylor (R) – 20yr 5mth
Ryan Clarke – 20yr 2mth
Ben McKay – 19yr 8mth
Oscar Junker (R) – 19yr 7mth
Jy Simpkin – 19yr 5mth
Cameron Zurhaar (R) – 19yr 3mth
Nick Larkey – 19yr 2mth
Josh Williams – 19yr 2mth
Declan Watson – 18yr 11mth

North have a number of significant list decisions to make in the next few weeks regarding which of their veterans should be given another ride and which young players will be retained.

Unfortunately it looks likely that these players will all be left to twist in the wind for a little while as they are not as high a priority as potentially fitting Martin or Kelly into the salary cap.

However North’s real number one priority at the contract table this off-season will be to lock Ben Brown away on a long-term deal.

He kicked the third most goals of any player in the league this year, no small feat to achieve in a team that finished in the bottom four.

He comes out of contract at the end of 2018 and will certainly become the target of opposition clubs if North do not get him locked away nice and early.

There doesn’t appear to be any other significant flight risks in the 2018 contract group expect perhaps Braydon Preuss, who might look elsewhere for more opportunities if not given them next year, so his signature too would be good to secure for the long term.

North Melbourne players by contract status
2021
Jack Ziebell

2020
Ben Cunnington
Jy Simpkin
Mason Wood

2019
Majak Daw
Trent Dumont
Sam Durdin
Todd Goldstein
Shaun Higgins
Nick Larkey
Jamie Macmillan
Ben McKay
Robbie Tarrant
Marley Williams

2018
Paul Ahern
Shaun Atley
Ben Brown
Ryan Clarke
Taylor Garner
Mitchell Hibberd
Oscar Junker (R)
Luke McDonald
Daniel Nielson
Braydon Preuss
Lindsay Thomas
Kayne Turner
Andrew Swallow
Ed Vickers-Willis
Declan Watson
Josh Williams
Sam Wright
Cameron Zurhaar (R)

Out of contract
Will Fordham (R)
Sam Gibson
Lachie Hansen
Ben Jacobs
Aaron Mullett
Declan Mountford
Matthew Taylor (R)
Scott Thompson
Jarrad Waite
Corey Wagner

Unconfirmed
Jed Anderson
Nathan Hrovat

Delistings and retirements

So far North Melbourne have announced they will not give another contract to 151-game veteran Lachie Hansen, nor to Will Fordham or Matthew Taylor, rookie-listed players who never made a senior appearance for the club.

They now face decisions on Waite, Thompson and Gibson. One would expect that Waite is likely to go given he has managed just 24 games out of 45 in the past two years, and would border on being the oldest player in the game should he continue on.

Thompson and Gibson have both played well enough to go around again. However the question will be over whether they ought to make way for youth players to be given more opportunities. In addition, the club may find it helpful to retire them in order to make salary cap room if things really do get spendy.

The other players to make a call on are middle-tier types in Ben Jacobs and Aaron Mullet, and young players Declan Mountford and Corey Wagner.

All of them arguably deserve a new deal, but North must find a way to cut enough players that they can take the required three at the draft and also have room for any free agency or trade recruits.

Free agency

Scott Thompson (restricted)
Lachlan Hansen (unrestricted)

Thompson and Hansen are unlikely to be courted by other clubs, but North will happily let them go elsewhere if they are.

Where North Melbourne are more likely to have a splash in free agency this year is targetting opposition players, and their much-publicised pursuit of Dustin Martin is the obvious talking point here.

The Roos are said to have offered Martin a seven-year deal worth $1.5 million a year, a significantly higher financial return than the deal offered to him by Richmond which is worth $1.1 million a year over the same length of time.

There has been significant debate in the media about whether or not this is a good move for North Melbourne – or more accurately, there has been no debate at all, and pundits have been unanimously, uproariously against it.

I disagree, however. Martin would be the centrepiece that ties North’s 24-26 generation together and would rapidly speed up their chances of returning to finals or becoming a premiership contender.

Most importantly, given that North’s financial offer blows Richmond’s out of the water, he would be secured without having to give up a draft pick of any kind, and therefore his recruitment would not in any way limit North’s ability to continue to draft youth.

While $1.5 million a year might seem like an exorbitant amount of money to spend on a single player, and it is, one has to remember that the salary cap increased by 20 per cent this year, and will increase at least another 10 per cent before Martin’s contract ends, and probably have another significant bump near the end of it.

That being the case, it’s roughly analogous to the Lance Franklin deal that brought him up to Sydney, and given that they’re in about the same class of player at present, it at least doesn’t seem a completely unreasonable amount.

Trade period

The other big name on North Melbourne’s radar is GWS’ Josh Kelly, who like Martin was named as part of the All Australian team last night.

Given that he is only 22 years of age, Kelly does make a more logical fit into North’s current list, as he’ll certainly be around long enough to see the current generation of youth mature.

No one seems too sure on what North’s offer is to him anymore – it was said to be $9 million over nine years at the start of the season, but may have been bumped up to ten, or may have been reconfigured as $7.5 million over five.

There’s also a lack of unity in the media about what he is set to do. Some say he is already lined up at Carlton, or St Kilda, and others believe he will almost certainly take a short-term deal to stay at GWS.

If he does do the latter, that’s not necessarily a bad result for the Roos – he can hopefully scratch the itch of premiership success at the Giants in the next two years, before the club reloads and has another run at him at the end of 2019.

We’ll just have to wait and see how this one turns out, but on a purely hypothetical basis I doubt many would disagree that he’d be an ideal recruit for North Melbourne.

The only potential negative is that it would likely mean North have to give up their No.4 draft pick this year, and probably a little more.

While that’s not ideal for a team looking to bring in as much youth as it can, Kelly is young enough himself that the deal would still be worth making.

Should the Roos fall short in their goal of acquiring either Martin or Kelly then they will no doubt hit the market and look at some other opportunities – they’ve got cash to burn and it has to spent on somebody.

Jacob Hopper seems like a likely target if this occurs, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Roos throw a curveball.

The other consideration for North Melbourne in this trade period will be whether or not to put Todd Goldstein on the market, a popular topic of debate among Roos fans.

While he was an absolute elite two years ago he has really struggled since, to the point where he was briefly dropped to the VFL during the year (and should have been much sooner).

On top of that, there’s the question of whether or not his role in the team prevents the Roos from developing and retaining Braydon Preuss, who is clearly the future of their ruck division.

While the temptation to remove that potential headache is there, what must be considered is the fact that North won’t get any kind of significant financial return for moving Goldstein on, and that’s if he has suitors at all.

It may require some creative thinking, but coming up with a way to fit him and Preuss comfortably in the same team – and acknowledging that retaining and developing Preuss is the priority – is the best way forward.

Draft

First three rounds: 4, 22, 45.

Assuming they don’t move it on in a deal for Josh Kelly, pick four looks likely to be spent on the best midfielder available, which will likely be one of Luke Davies-Uniacke, Paddy Dow or Adam Cerra, all of whom would be fine additions to the Roos.

A key forward option to partner Ben Brown for the long term should be a priority, but is unlikely to be found in this draft. Expect North to look to add as much midfield depth and speed as possible.

Outlook

How North Melbourne progresses from here is going to depend greatly on whether they get the thumbs up or the thumbs down from Dustin Martin and Josh Kelly.

As suggested earlier, the reappointment of Brad Scott as coach for the next three years to me suggests that the Roos want to make it clear to these players they will have stability at the club, which further suggests that they believe they can land at least one.

If it is Dustin Martin then North still has more recruiting work to do to build the team around him, but they will still have pick 4 to spend and if they make smart choices could play finals in two or three years and be in the premiership race by the early 2020s, though a lot would need to go right for them.

If it is Josh Kelly then the club will have to play the longer, more patient game and wait for this generation of youth to become the core of the team before there is any real chance of success. Target a return to finals in 2021 and flag contention in the mid 2020s. It may take a while but there’d be a greater chance of success.

If it is both, then you can expect to see myself, highly pickled, parading up and down Arden Street in nothing but my jocks and a North Melbourne scarf. The Roos could and should play finals in 2018 if that’s the case.

If neither opt to come, then things do potentially look a little bleak – North will likely spend a few years near the bottom of the ladder, and will have to hope they pick up a generational player or three with their draft picks while there.