2020 – it’s the year that Ross Lyon is contracted until, and it’s the year that Fremantle must open up their next premiership window by if they’re to take full advantage of a re-signed Nat Fyfe’s immense talent.

AFL list management series
18 – Brisbane Lions
17 – Gold Coast Suns
16 – Carlton Blues
15 – North Melbourne Kangaroos
13 – Collingwood Magpies
12 – Hawthorn Hawks
11 – St Kilda Saints
10 – Western Bulldogs
9 – Melbourne Demons
8 – Essendon Bombers
7 – Port Adelaide Power
6 – West Coast Eagles
5 – Sydney Swans
4 – GWS Giants
3 – Geelong Cats

2017 in short

Fremantle were the most baffling team in the league in the early part of the season – despite never really looking that good, they kept winning, and it left us all with some head scratching to do.

Thankfully, the Dockers’ form from Round 10 onwards made it abundantly clear: they are not good. Bummer for them. They won just two games out of their last fourteen.

That’s not to say there weren’t competitive performances and some promise seen along the way though. In particular, close losses to Geelong in Round 14 and Essendon in Round 23 will have the Dockers believing they might not be that far off the pace, and perhaps they’re right.

If you’re keen on a more in-depth review of Fremantle’s 2017, check out this piece from Stirling Coates.

Coach

At the start of last year it was announced that Ross Lyon would coach Fremantle until the end of 2020. In two seasons since then, he has delivered a grand total of 12 wins from 44 attempts.

That’s not to say his time at the Dockers hasn’t been successful – he has taken the club to both the 2013 Grand Final and the 2015 minor premiership, both firsts for Fremantle, though on neither occasion was it converted into a flag.

He might not be up against a particularly large or inspiring field, but there’s no doubt he’s the best senior coach so far that the Fremantle Football Club has ever had.

However Fremantle’s performances at times in the 2017 season, especially in the latter half of the season, are enough to make you wonder if Ross Lyon’s coaching has jumped the shark.

Before 2017, no side playing under Lyon had ever copped a loss of 100 points or more. In 2017 it happened to Fremantle three times, more than any other club copped this year.

Concerning also must be that Fremantle scored the second-least points of any team in 2017, and only 13 more than Carlton, while being 149 behind next-worst Gold Coast, or more than 800 behind competition-leading Adelaide.

Their percentage of 74.4 was the second-worst in the competition, only 0.1 per cent better than wooden spooners Brisbane.

Lyon has always been a defence-minded coach. It paid dividends in the past, but a quick look at the ladder suggests that a team needs more than just good defence to go all the way in this competition.

Sydney, Port Adelaide and Richmond are the best defensive sides in the competition this year – but all three have a mature forward-line spearhead capable of having an impact even when the side isn’t focused on playing offensive footy. Fremantle certainly do not, and it is doubtful that such a prospect exists on their list.

If you don’t play in a way that prioritises goals, and you don’t have elite forward talent that can kick them against the grain of the gameplan, then you are regularly going to find yourself incapable of kicking a winning score no matter how good the rest of the side is.

Lyon’s strength has always been his ability to get the best out of limited talent, turning those with more work ethic and skills into elite jobbers within a team structure that caters directly to them. That’s why unremarkable players like Clinton Jones, Chris Mayne or Matt De Boer have thrived under his rule.

However, the downside of creating this team structure is that it greys out the genuine offensive talent, and makes it difficult for them to perform to their genuine peak.

The opportunity to make a match-winning play passes in a split second and if you must first check where your man is or ponder where to run in case of a turnover, it can pass you by.

Good teams find the right balance between these two philosophies, but it’s clear that Lyon has always been more comfortable with one than the other, and his tactic of choice is going out style.

Players and coaches both all need to continuously evolve in order to stay relevant in the game and the 2017 season may be a sign that Lyon has failed to do so.

One could look at his contract end date and simply say that Fremantle have hitched their wagon to him regardless and now must do the best they can with what they have, or look foolish.

But those who spend time worrying about how they’ll appear in others’ eyes rarely have many minutes left over to achieve anything else.

Consider the Adelaide Crows who extended Brenton Sanderson’s contract at the beginning of 2014 and then sacked him at the end of the year with two years still left to run.

It looked like an absolute debacle at the time, but their results in the three years since – three finals campaigns, a minor premiership, and flag favouritism in 2017 – have been overwhelmingly successful.

I’m not necessarilly saying that Fremantle certainly need to axe Ross Lyon, but their coaching situation and way of playing the game at large needs heavy review.

Their window of time to get ready for a premiership assault is not all that big, and if they don’t make the right moves now then in five years time they will be left asking themselves what went wrong.

Captain

Nat Fyfe took over the captaincy of the team this year in unusual circumstances, replacing David Mundy after Mundy had served only a year in the role.

Fyfe had his own problems with form during the year as he recovered from a broken leg, but the quality of his performances did spike significantly upward at the end of the season.

It’s too soon to tell how much of an impact he is having as captain of the club, but one would assume he’ll be in the role for several years to come and that will give us a better idea.

List management

Although they’ve finished in the lower reaches of the ladder the last two years, Fremantle should be aiming to open a new premiership window in 2020. It’s not going to be easy, but it can be done.

Re-signing Nat Fyfe for the long term earlier this year was a great result for the Dockers, and it now means that their list management simply must be planned around securing a premiership while he is in the peak years of his career.

To start with, everyone older than Stephen Hill on the list is at this point expendable – there’s some great players in that group, like Aaron Sandilands (34), Michael Johnson or David Mundy (both 32), but they’re just not going to be around next time Fremantle makes a push.

After this comes the group of players who are becoming Fremantle’s core and will be fully immersed in that role by the time the Dockers should be aiming to return to finals.

We’re looking at Stephen Hill (27), Michael Walters (26), Nat Fyfe (25), Harley Bennell, Joel Hamling, Lachie Neale and Brad Hill (all 24).

After this comes Fremantle’s genuine youth – Cam McCarthy (22), Ed Langdon, Luke Ryan, Lachie Weller, Connor Blakely (all 21), Darcy Tucker (20), Griffin Logue and Sean Darcy (19).

There’s a lot to like about this group, particularly in the midfield. It has a great mixture of grind (Neale, Blakely) and creativity (Hill Brothers, Bennell, Weller). Fyfe fits across both categories.

Where it is lacking is forward firepower, particular, a centrepiece key forward who can allow Cam McCarthy to play as a second banana and create contests for smaller types to crumb from.

Maybe Matt Taberner, Michael Apeness or Brennan Cox can become that, but Fremantle would not be wise to gamble the success of this era of the club on that happening.

If we take those fifteen players all as likely best 22 members going forward, then there is seven more to find before Stephen Hill turns 30 in 2020, and Fremantle find themselves with two or three years to win a flag before the retirements start to hit.

Fremantle players by age
Aaron Sandilands – 34yr 8mth
Michael Johnson – 32yr 10mth
David Mundy – 32yr 1mth
Jonathon Griffin – 31yr 7mth
Zac Dawson – 31yr 6mth
Danyle Pearce – 31yr 4mth
Hayden Ballantyne – 30yr 1mth
Lee Spurr – 30yr 1mth
Garrick Ibbotson – 29yr 5mth
Zac Clarke – 27yr 5mth
Stephen Hill – 27yr 3mth
Nick Suban – 27yr 3mth
Michael Walters – 26yr 7mth
Nat Fyfe – 25yr 11mth
Cameron Sutcliffe – 25yr 3mth
Harley Bennell – 24yr 10mth
Shane Kersten – 24yr 5mth
Joel Hamling – 24yr 4mth
Lachie Neale – 24yr 3mth
Matthew Taberner – 24yr 2mth
Bradley Hill – 24yr 1mth
Tommy Sheridan – 23yr 10mth
Hayden Crozier – 23yr 8mth
Sam Collins – 23yr 2mth
Ethan Hughes – 22yr 8mth
Matthew Uebergang (R) – 22yr 7mth
Michael Apeness – 22yr 7mth
Cam McCarthy – 22yr 4mth
Alex Pearce – 22yr 2mth
Brady Grey (R) – 22yr 1mth
Ed Langdon – 21yr 6mth
Luke Ryan – 21yr 6mth
Lachie Weller – 21yr 6mth
Connor Blakely – 21yr 5mth
Josh Deluca (R) – 21yr 3mth
Ryan Nyhuis (R) – 20yr 11mth
Harley Balic – 20yr 7mth
Darcy Tucker – 20yr 7mth
Luke Strnadica (R) – 19yr 7mth
Griffin Logue – 19yr 4mth
Taylin Duman (R) – 19yr 4mth
Sean Darcy – 19yr 2mth
Brennan Cox – 19yr

The great news for Fremantle is that the majority of their youth and other important players have already been locked up well in advance.

They will lose Harley Balic to the lure home this year but aside from that there aren’t any real flight risks in their 2017 contract group, just players they can choose to either keep or let go as they like.

Lachie Weller will be courted by many next year and is the priority re-signing from their 2018 group, but generally speaking, most of their key players are already secured until 2019 or later.

Fremantle do deserve real credit for, despite not having made it as far as a flag, clearly being a club that more often than not is able to retain the players it wants to.

Fremantle players by contract status
2023
Nat Fyfe

2022
None

2021
None

2020
Brennan Cox
Sean Darcy
Michael Walters

2019
Connor Blakely
Brad Hill
Stephen Hill
Ed Langdon
Griffin Logue
Cam McCarthy
Lachie Neale
Darcy Tucker

2018
Michael Apeness
Harley Bennell
Ethan Hughes
David Mundy
Alex Pearce
Danyle Pearce
Luke Ryan
Aaron Sandilands
Lee Spurr
Cam Sutcliffe
Lachie Weller

Out of contract
Harley Balic
Hayden Ballantyne
Zac Clarke
Sam Collins
Hayden Crozier
Zac Dawson
Josh Deluca (R)
Taylin Duman (R)
Brady Grey (R)
Jonathon Griffin
Garrick Ibbotson
Michael Johnson
Ryan Nyhuis (R)
Tommy Sheridan
Luke Strnadica (R)
Nick Suban
Matt Taberner
Matthew Uebergang (R)

Delistings and retirements

Garrick Ibbotson announced his retirement a little while ago, and Ross Lyon retired Zac Dawson in a press conference, as Ross Lyon is want to do.

Hayden Ballantyne and Michael Johnson both also need to be weighed up. There was talk a little while ago that both are likely to stay for another year, but it really is doubtful how helpful this would be.

I’d say the Dockers will have enough veteran talent on their list next year to give the club some good leadership and experience, any more risks robbing youth of opportunities.

Zac Clarke and Jonathon Griffin have both been overtaken by a nineteen-year-old but if they get the chop the Dockers will be low on ruck depth. They’ll either keep at least one, or find a ruck elsewhere.

Sam Collins seems to be in the gun after playing only two senior games this year.

We’ve probably spent long enough waiting for Hayden Crozier, Matt Taberner, Nic Suban and Tommy Sheridan to do something interesting, but some of them will be kept on for depth.

Free agency

Hayden Ballantyne (restricted)
Zac Clarke (unrestricted)
Michael Johnson (unrestricted)
Nick Suban (unrestricted)

Fremantle’s free agents will all be in doubt to get a new contract at the Dockers, let alone elsewhere, and they wouldn’t begrudge them moving on if someone offers a deal.

Zac Clarke might be the best chance given the endless opportunities you can get at AFL level even if you have no virtue other than being at least 200cm tall.

In terms of a signing of their own, Fremantle traditionally have little luck luring away players unless they are WA natives, and no one really fits the bill in this year’s free agent pool.

As I’ve said, they do need a centrepiece forward, and for want of a better option, they could look at trying to pull Levi Casboult away from Carlton. At 27, he just narrowly fits inside the age window they should be targetting.

However, the much wiser – albeit more difficult – road will be to poach a key forward who is several years younger and far more talented from elsewhere.

Trade period

Fremantle have been heavily linked with two players in particular this year and unfortunately for the Dockers, both of them re-signed with their current clubs.

Big money offers were reportedly on the table for WA boys Jason Johanissen and Mitch McGovern to come home, but they turned them down – a shame, too, because they would’ve been great gets.

It does offer a significant insight into the Dockers’ recruiting strategy though – bring home the WA boys. Last year they picked up four – Joel Hamling, Cam McCarthy and in particular Brad Hill have all been fine recruits, and Shane Kersten is at the very least not the worst player ever to pull on the purple.

The number one item on Fremantle’s shopping list has to be that centrepiece key forward, and they should be targetting one via trade, not the draft, as an 18-year-old may not develop in time to be a serious part of their premiership window.

If you’re after a WA-born key forward who might be tempted home, then there are two obvious targets – Rory Lobb and Jesse Hogan.

Both of them are contracted until 2019, and as a result likely stay until then. That’s okay, these can be longer term plans – not that that should preclude Fremantle throwing a bathtub of money at them regardless.

Lobb, in particular, might be picked out of GWS this year if the Dockers have a real crack, simply because his spot in the team has been hard to nail down this season and the chance to become the guy at Fremantle could appeal more than it did a year ago.

Tom Lynch, a free agent next year, and Peter Wright, out of contract at the end of 2019, are also both worth monitoring. They are Victorian boys though, so would take a mighty large amount of convincing.

For now though, let’s assume that finding that forward lynchpin is something that’s going to have to wait until at least 2018. What are the Dockers doing this year to improve their list?

With McGovern and Johanissen out of the picture, Brandon Matera is the player remaining that the Dockers have been most heavily linked to.

He knows how to kick goals, which is something Fremantle need, and if Ross Lyon can instill in him the work ethic and defensive edge that he has to so many players before, he could be a very valuable recruit, and acquired at low cost.

Plus, the banter factor alone of having a Matera playing for Fremantle would be worth any costs paid.

In terms of players going out, Harley Balic seems certain to request a trade home to Victoria, though where to is not certain and the return is likely to be small. An upgrade of Fremantle’s third-round pick to one in the second would be a good result.

Draft

First three rounds: 5, 41.

Having traded their second-round pick away already, unless they get more picks in somehow the Dockers will only be making a limited investment in this year’s draft.

If they want to pick up a tall player for the long term than there’s a good chance Jarrod Brander will still be available by this point, but he is yet to settle as either a forward or a defender.

Either way he would likely be able to find a place in Fremantle’s team, and while a mature tall would be preferable, drafting one for the long term isn’t a bad idea either.

If the Dockers opt against a key-position type, then tall midfielder Jaidyn Stephenson or small midfielder Jack Higgins will both be in the mix.

The best WA-born prospect this year appears to be key defender Aaron Naughton, but it would probably be something of a reach for him to go this early.

Outlook

There are two key priorities for Fremantle to achieve before their premiership window due date of 2020.

The first is to develop a style of play that can win games against the very best of opponents. This might be done under Ross Lyon, or it might not – the Dockers need to work out as soon as posible whether or not it can be.

The second is to find an A-grade key forward who can be hitting their peak when the list build comes to fruition. Jesse Hogan would be amazing. Rory Lobb would also be very good. If it’s not one of them, who is it?

Aside from that, their strategy should simply be to keep investing in the draft, and keep having a ping a the occasional out of contract WA-born player. They’ve made some good decisions here lately, back them in to make more.

These aren’t going to be easy things to accomplish, and conventional wisdom would most likely bet against the Dockers pulling them off – but football is full of surprises.