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Well, this is it. The final day of the NRL season is here and two out of the three games have an ability to directly impact the final make-up of the top eight and positions.
This is your one-stop shop to all the scenarios for the final day of the season.
While two games have the ability to direct finishing positions and the make-up of the eight, one of those, as well as the final game of the day could, by absolute miracle, change who ‘wins’ the wooden spoon.
For reference, this is how the top nine and bottom two looks with three games of the season to go.
| Pos. | Team | Points | F/A | Already qualified? | Position locked? |
| Finals | |||||
| 1 | Melbourne Storm | 44 | 297 | Yes | Yes |
| 2 | Sydney Roosters | 38 | 72 | Yes | Yes |
| 3 | Brisbane Broncos | 36 | 164 | Yes | Yes |
| 4 | Parramatta Eels | 36 | 39 | Yes | Yes |
| 5 | Cronulla Sharks | 32 | 61 | Yes | No |
| 6 | Manly Sea Eagles | 32 | 40 | Yes | No |
| 7 | Penrith Panthers | 30 | 45 | Yes | No |
| 8 | North Queensland Cowboys | 30 | 24 | No | No |
| 9 | St George Illawarra Dragons | 28 | 89 | No | No |
| Wooden Spoon | |||||
| 15 | Wests Tigers | 16 | -170 | N/A | No |
| 16 | Newcastle Knights | 14 | -212 | N/A | No |
So, with all that in mind, here is how the final day of the season will shape the top eight.
Venue: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Time (AEST): 2pm
This is a game that, unless it produces a ridiculous result probably isn’t going to influence the make-up of the top eight.
For anything to change, the Sharks would have to lose by at least 22 points, which was send them behind the Manly Sea Eagles on the ladder.
They would still have ‘home’ ground advantage next week, but be playing the seventh ranked team in the second elimination final, instead of the eighth in the first elimination final.
For Cronulla, it probably doesn’t matter a great deal, but right at the moment, a game against the Panthers or Cowboys seems a lot easier than one against the Dragons if they win.
As for poor old Newcastle, they’d be out to do a whole lot more damage than 22 points if they are to avoid the spoon. They need a 42-point turnaround, so a big win and hoping for a miracle later in the day is where it’s at for them.
Venue: ANZ Stadium, Homebush
Time (AEST): 4pm
Now, this is the game you won’t want to miss a moment of. I’m pretty sure I won’t be able to sleep (well, I’ll have the answer by the time you’re reading this), because for Dragons fans, the equation couldn’t be clearer.
A win over the Bulldogs will mean the Red V finish seventh. There are no questions to be asked because their for and against is superior to the teams ahead of them, so they will leapfrog the Cowboys and Panthers.
Townsville meanwhile, will dress itself in blue and white on Sunday and hope the Bulldogs win, keeping them in the finals. Their for and against means that even on 30 points, they will miss out if the Dragons are to make the eight.
Because the Panthers weren’t beaten by 38 points or more on Saturday by Manly, they can’t miss the finals and will finish either seventh or eighth, depending on whether the Dragons win.
Venue: Leichardt Oval, Sydney
Time (AEST): 6:30pm
This match obviously has no ramifications on the top eight. The Tigers and Warriors have struggled all year and as a result, sit at the bottom of the table.
The Tigers could still pick up the spoon though. As already mentioned, the Knights will probably need to win heavily, while the Tigers lose heavily, resulting in a 42-point for and against turnaround.
It’s unlikely, but stranger things have happened (not many, mind you).
With all that being said, here is the Week 1 finals picture as it stands.
Equation 1: If Dragons win and Sharks win or lose by 21 points or fewer
1st qualifying final: Melbourne Storm (1st) vs Parramatta Eels (4th) at AAMI Park
2nd qualifying final: Sydney Roosters (2nd) vs Brisbane Broncos (3rd) at Allianz Stadium
1st elimination final: Cronulla Sharks (5th) vs Penrith Panthers (8th) at TBC (Allianz or ANZ)
2nd elimination final: Manly Sea Eagles (6th) vs St George Illawarra Dragons (7th) at TBC (Allianz or ANZ)
Equation 2: If Dragons win and Sharks lose by 22 points or more
1st qualifying final: Melbourne Storm (1st) vs Parramatta Eels (4th) at AAMI Park
2nd qualifying final: Sydney Roosters (2nd) vs Brisbane Broncos (3rd) at Allianz Stadium
1st elimination final: Manly Sea Eagles (5th) vs Penrith Panthers (8th) at TBC (Allianz or ANZ)
2nd elimination final: Cronulla Sharks (6th) vs St George Illawarra Dragons (7th) at TBC (Allianz or ANZ)
Equation 3: If Dragons lose and Sharks win or lose by 21 points or fewer
1st qualifying final: Melbourne Storm (1st) vs Parramatta Eels (4th) at AAMI Park
2nd qualifying final: Sydney Roosters (2nd) vs Brisbane Broncos (3rd) at Allianz Stadium
1st elimination final: Cronulla Sharks (5th) vs North Queensland Cowboys (8th) at TBC (Allianz or ANZ)
2nd elimination final: Manly Sea Eagles (6th) vs Penrith Panthers (7th) at TBC (Allianz or ANZ)
Equation 4: If Dragons lose and Sharks lose by 22 points or more
1st qualifying final: Melbourne Storm (1st) vs Parramatta Eels (4th) at AAMI Park
2nd qualifying final: Sydney Roosters (2nd) vs Brisbane Broncos (3rd) at Allianz Stadium
1st elimination final: Manly Sea Eagles (5th) vs North Queensland Cowboys (8th) at TBC (Allianz or ANZ)
2nd elimination final: Cronulla Sharks (6th) vs Penrith Panthers (7th) at TBC (Allianz or ANZ)
Roarers, how do you see the final day of the NRL season playing out? Drop a comment and let us know.