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2017 AFL finals series: Week 1 preview

Roar Guru
4th September, 2017
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Matt Crouch of the Crows. (AAP Image/David Mariuz)
Roar Guru
4th September, 2017
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After the week off following Round 23, which has again divided AFL fans nationwide, the finals have finally arrived.

What a line-up it promises to be, with two finals in Adelaide, a rematch of the classic 1996 preliminary final and an MCG blockbuster to highlight the first week of the 2017 AFL finals series.

This year’s finals series will feature both teams from Adelaide, as well as both sides from Sydney as well as the West Coast Eagles, while the Geelong Cats, Richmond and Essendon represent Victoria as their best hopes of premiership glory.

What has been an intriguing season culminated in the Adelaide Crows taking out their second minor premiership, the Sydney Swans coming from an 0-6 start to the season to qualify for their eighth consecutive finals series, and Essendon returning to September twelve months after finishing last.

Richmond also returns to September after a dismal 2016 season, finishing in the top four for the first time since 2001 and earning themselves the double chance which has boosted their chances of a first premiership since 1980.

For the first time since 2009, Hawthorn are absent, while last year’s premiers the Western Bulldogs are also shock absentees just twelve months after their improbable finals run captivated the whole AFL world.

Here is your full preview to the first week of the 2017 AFL finals series.

[1] Adelaide Crows versus [4] GWS Giants
Thursday, September 7
7:20pm ACST
Adelaide Oval

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This season: Adelaide Crows 22.14 (146) defeated GWS Giants 14.7 (91), round 1, Adelaide Oval.

Last meeting in a final: N/A

The finals kick off on Thursday night with what should be a fascinating qualifying final between the minor premiers, and premiership favourites, the Adelaide Crows, and the emerging force that is the GWS Giants.

Given what the Crows have achieved this year, it is fair to say in hindsight that the Giants were rather unfortunate to have drawn them so early in the season, when the Crows won in a second half landslide by 56 points.

The margin could have been so much larger had Tex Walker not missed that match due to a hamstring injury, while for the Giants Jacob Hopper and Nathan Wilson were both absent that day.

But that was then, and this is now.

Both sides enter the finals series on the back of some patchy form, the Crows having dropped their last two matches to the Sydney Swans and West Coast Eagles, while the Giants’ last outing resulted in a 44-point loss to the Geelong Cats on the road.

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There has been talk about whether Giants veteran Steve Johnson should be considered for selection by coach Leon Cameron after he endured a quiet performance against his old side at Simonds Stadium in Round 23.

The three-time premiership Cat has endured an injury-ravaged season so far, having been rested multiple times due to a troublesome knee injury. There are fears that his body may not be able to hold up for what is expected to be another brutal September not just for him, but also the club.

If the Giants need some inspiration to take them forward, they need not look past what the Sydney Swans did in 2003 and 2012, when they won qualifying finals against Port Adelaide and Adelaide, respectively, both against the odds.

In neither of those games did the Swans trail, and it was the victory in the latter year which ultimately set them up for premiership glory.

However, there are a few obstacles for the Giants to overcome, including what is expected to be a hostile pro-Crows crowd and just one win against the Crows (in 2015) and at the Adelaide Oval (against Port Adelaide in 2016).

As for the Crows, their finals credentials will once again be tested as they seek to end a 19-year premiership drought, during which the club suffered a series of heartbreaking finals defeats, none more so than the 2006 preliminary final against the West Coast Eagles at home.

In fact, the last time they played a qualifying final as minor premiers, they went down to St Kilda by eight points at home, and it ultimately proved fatal as they then lost to the Eagles in Perth in the 2005 preliminary final.

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Until Fremantle in 2015, this marked the last time a minor premier failed to reach the grand final, and this is something the Crows’ class of 2017 will be hoping to learn from as they look to win the club’s third premiership.

But while Don Pyke’s men have been the team to beat by a country mile, it will remain to be seen whether they can perform under the heat of finals football.

For the winner: direct passage to the preliminary final.

For the loser: a home elimination final against either Port Adelaide or the West Coast Eagles, most likely to be on a Saturday night. A Crows loss and a Power win over the Eagles would set up a second finals Showdown.

Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 30 points.

Eddie Betts Adelaide Crows AFL 2017

(Photo by Morne de Klerk/Getty Images)

[2] Geelong Cats versus [3] Richmond
Friday, September 8
7:50pm
Melbourne Cricket Ground

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This season: Geelong Cats 11.14 (80) defeated Richmond 9.12 (66), Round 21, Simonds Stadium.

Last meeting in a final: Geelong Cats 20.9 (129) defeated Richmond 6.4 (40), second preliminary final, 1995, Waverley Park

The only final in Melbourne this weekend will pit the Geelong Cats and Richmond in front of what is expected to be a crowd in excess of 90,000 at the Melbourne Cricket Ground this Friday night.

Once again, the Cats have proven to be the best-performed Victorian team, winning fifteen matches, drawing one and losing six matches en route to a second straight second-place finish (and fourth overall under Chris Scott).

They started the season with five straight wins but three losses on the bounce, including one against last year’s wooden spooners Essendon, saw their premiership credentials come into question.

However, from that point on they lost just three more matches for the rest of the season, and more impressively, they won their last three matches without injured captain Joel Selwood, who is a chance to return against the Tigers.

Of particular note, however, is the Cats’ recent poor finals record – in eight finals matches since their last premiership win in 2011, they have saluted just twice – once when Isaac Smith missed a shot at goal after the siren for Hawthorn in last year’s second qualifying final.

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But this is nothing compared to the well-documented recent finals woes of Richmond, who have not won a final since 2001, which was also the last time the club finished in the top four.

After a dismal 2016 season, in which they finished 13th with just eight wins, nobody had forecast where Damien Hardwick’s men would be right now.

While they finished third with fifteen wins and seven losses, they could have so easily claimed the minor premiership had it not been for a pair of heartbreaking losses to Fremantle and the GWS Giants early in the season.

Most notably, had Shai Bolton’s goal stood in the latter match, it would have faced Port Adelaide in a qualifying final at the MCG and the Giants would have finished fifth (Port’s superior percentage of 129.7 to the Giants’ 114.8 would have seen them finish fourth).

The Tigers have many obstacles to overcome if it is to go deep in September; not only have they not won a final in 16 years, it also has only beaten the Cats just once (in 2006) since the turn of the century.

It will now remain to be seen whether the two droughts can be broken in one go, or whether the Tigers will be forced into sudden death the following week.

For the winner: direct passage to the preliminary final at the MCG.

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For the loser: a home elimination final against either the Sydney Swans or Essendon at the MCG, most likely to be on a Friday night. A Tigers loss and a Bombers win over the Swans would set up a Dreamtime Final at the G.

Prediction: Geelong Cats by 18 points.

Harry Taylor Geelong Cats AFL 2017

(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

[6] Sydney Swans versus [7] Essendon
Saturday, September 9
4:20pm
Sydney Cricket Ground

This season: Sydney Swans 11.20 (86) defeated Essendon 12.13 (85), Round 14, Sydney Cricket Ground.

Last meeting in a final: Essendon 18.15 (123) defeated Sydney Swans 7.12 (54), fourth qualifying final, 1999, Melbourne Cricket Ground.

The first of the two elimination finals on Super Saturday will see the history-making Sydney Swans come up against last year’s wooden spooners, Essendon, in a sudden death eliminator at the SCG in the twilight.

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After starting the season with six straight losses, many feared that the Sydney Swans’ status as premiership contenders would come crashing to a shuddering halt, much like the thunder from the sky.

However, 14 wins in their next 16 matches, with the only two losses both against Hawthorn by six points, saw the Swans rocket back up the ladder, eventually finishing sixth.

Their last outing before the contentious pre-finals bye saw them thrash Carlton by 81 points at the SCG, with Lance Franklin kicking ten goals to claim his fourth Coleman Medal at the expense of Josh J Kennedy.

Now he looms as the Bombers’ worst finals nightmare this Saturday night.

It is 21 years since the Swans and Bombers met in a classic preliminary final at the SCG, which is best known for its dramatic conclusion where Tony Lockett kicked a point after the final siren to send the Swans through to their first grand final since 1945.

Lost in all of this is the spleen injury suffered by second-year Bombers forward Matthew Lloyd, who lost a lot of blood in the incident and had to spend ten days in intensive care in a Sydney hospital.

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The Bombers, however, won their last finals meeting by 69 points in the 1999 qualifying final at the MCG.

Having finished seventh at the end of the minor rounds, the Bombers could possibly emulate what the Western Bulldogs did from this position last year, when it won four consecutive away finals matches en route to its first premiership since 1954.

Recent history, though, is against John Worsfold’s men, who have not beaten the Swans in their last seven attempts and haven’t won a final since it defeated Melbourne by five points in the first elimination final in 2004.

Worsfold also hasn’t coached a win against the Swans since 2007, and has never coached a winning side against John Longmire.

He’ll also want to analyse the Bombers’ last-minute loss to the Swans from Round 14, when the hosts came from 19 points down with less than five minutes remaining to steal a one-point victory after the final siren, when the Bombers prepare for what will be their third trip to Sydney this year alone.

In what looms as an intriguing elimination final, the question will be who emerges victorious: the team that lost their first six matches of this season, or the side that, with half their best 22 missing due to doping suspensions, claimed the wooden spoon with just three wins last year.

For the winner: a semi-final match against either the Geelong Cats or Richmond at the MCG, likely to be on a Friday night.

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For the loser: Season over.

Prediction: Sydney Swans by 14 points.

[5] Port Adelaide versus [8] West Coast Eagles
Saturday, September 9
7:20pm ACST
Adelaide Oval

This season: West Coast Eagles 15.7 (97) defeated Port Adelaide 12.15 (87), round 7, Adelaide Oval; Port Adelaide 18.12 (120) defeated West Coast Eagles 13.10 (88), Round 16, Domain Stadium.

Last meeting in a final: Port Adelaide 9.14 (68) defeated West Coast Eagles 9.11 (65), second qualifying final, 2007, AAMI Stadium.

The second of the elimination finals, and second of two finals matches in Adelaide this weekend, pits Port Adelaide up against the West Coast Eagles at the Oval.

Having missed the finals in the last two years, Power coach Ken Hinkley entered this season under a lot of pressure, but his side has delivered as they made their return to finals football this year.

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A surprise 28-point win over the Sydney Swans at the SCG in what was captain Travis Boak’s 200th game in Round 1 undoubtedly set them up for something special this season.

They were one of four teams (the others being the Adelaide Crows, Geelong and Richmond) to have spent each round inside the eight, but some costly losses cost them what would’ve been their first top-four finish since 2007.

Still, they enter the finals series in brilliant form, including registering the largest victory of any side this year when it thrashed the Gold Coast Suns by 115 points in their final round match at the Adelaide Oval.

Their elimination final against the West Coast Eagles looms as one that either side could win, with the two regular season meetings between the pair this year split at one-all.

The Eagles claimed a 10-point win at the Oval in Round 7, with the Power returning serve with a 32-point win at Domain Stadium nine weeks later.

Following Melbourne’s final round loss to Collingwood, the equation was simple for Adam Simpson’s men: beat the Adelaide Crows at home by more than 20 points and a finals berth would be theirs.

Goals to Lewis Jetta and Jack Darling saw them accrue the percentage required to overtake the Dees and claim the last available berth in September.

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Jackson Trengove Port Adelaide Power AFL 2017 tall

(AAP Image/David Mariuz)

Because they finished eighth, if they are to win their fourth premiership flag they will have to do it in the most hardest way imaginable.

If they beat Port Adelaide this Saturday night, then they may have to travel to the City of Churches again, or embark on the longer trip to Sydney, for its semi-final against either the Adelaide Crows or GWS Giants.

They would then have to travel to Melbourne for its preliminary final against either the Geelong Cats or Richmond, and if it wins that they’ll have to make another trip to the Victorian capital for the grand final.

In the end, I have the Power winning and thus ending the Eagles’ season.

For the winner: a semi-final against either the Adelaide Crows at the Adelaide Oval or the GWS Giants at Spotless Stadium, likely to be on a Saturday night. The stakes will be higher if the Crows lose their qualifying final, because if the Power win, then they won’t have to “travel” for their semi-final Showdown.

For the loser: Season over.

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Prediction: Port Adelaide by 20 points.

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