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2017 NRL finals series: Week 1 preview

Roar Guru
5th September, 2017
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The Melbourne Storm take on the Parramatta Eels in Week 1 of the finals. (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
Roar Guru
5th September, 2017
19
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After 26 rounds, the culmination of which was a drama-packed finale to the regular season, only eight teams remain and it will come down to a series of nine matches to decide who this year’s NRL premiers will be.

This year’s line-up of finalists is the strongest as it has ever been, with perennial finalists the Storm and Broncos right up there among the premiership contenders, while the Roosters and Eels shape as New South Wales’ best chances of keeping the trophy within our borders.

The two most recent premiers, the Sharks and the Cowboys, will meet in an elimination final which will also double as their fourth finals meeting in the past five years.

So, which club has what it takes to claim rugby league’s holy grail? Here is your full preview to the first week of the finals series.

[2] Sydney Roosters versus [3] Brisbane Broncos
Friday, September 8
7:55pm
Allianz Stadium

This season: Broncos 32-8, Round 6, Suncorp Stadium; Roosters 18-16, Round 13, Allianz Stadium.

Last meeting in a final: Broncos 31-12, 2015 second preliminary final, Suncorp Stadium.

If the Sydney Roosters claim this year’s premiership, then they can look back to the final ten minutes of their last round clash against the Gold Coast Titans as a massive turning point in their season.

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Why? Because if they had not scored two late tries, then they would have had to travel to Brisbane for a daunting qualifying final against the Broncos, against whom they have lost their last three in the sunshine capital.

For 70 minutes the Roosters were made to look second rate against a side that was only playing for pride amidst a shocking back end of the season, but they eventually won thanks to tries from Michael Gordon and Boyd Cordner.

Their reward is home ground advantage against the Broncos, who will be missing captain Darius Boyd after the Maroons backman suffered a hamstring injury at half-time of the club’s 20-10 win over the Cowboys in Townsville.

Recent history is also against Wayne Bennett’s men, who have also lost five of their last six matches against the Roosters at Friday night’s venue, Allianz Stadium, including earlier this year by just 18-16.

The two meetings between the clubs this year were split, with the Broncos winning easily 32-8 in Brisbane in Round 6 before the Roosters returned serve with an 18-16 win at Friday night’s venue, Allianz Stadium, in Round 13.

The Broncos have also found themselves in familiar territory, this being the sixth time in the past sixteen years in which they have finished third at the end of the minor rounds.

On three of those occasions, they have reached at least the preliminary final, going on to win the title in 2006 despite losing their second qualifying final against the Dragons that year.

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On the other two occasions, however, they went out in straight sets in 2004 and 2005 with losses to the Storm in both years’ qualifying finals, and then the Cowboys and Wests Tigers in the semi-finals respectively.

While the two teams’ most recent finals meeting came in a preliminary final at Suncorp Stadium just less than two years ago, this will be their first finals meeting before this stage since 2008.

At home, where they have only lost once this year, and facing a Broncos side missing their inspirational captain in Darius Boyd, the Roosters should prove too strong.

For the winner: Direct passage into the preliminary final.

For the loser: Await the winner of the Sea Eagles versus Panthers elimination final. If the Roosters lose, it will definitely be a grand final rematch from either 2013 or 2003.

Prediction: Roosters by 12 points.

Boyd Cordner Sydney Roosters NRL Rugby League 2017

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

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[1] Melbourne Storm versus [4] Parramatta Eels
Saturday, September 9
4:10pm
AAMI Park

This season: Eels 22-6, Round 18, AAMI Park.

Last meeting in a final: Storm 23-16^, 2009 grand final, ANZ Stadium,

^ – the Melbourne Storm was stripped of this premiership following a discovery of salary cap breaches in April 2010.

For Parramatta Eels fans young and old, to quote Jarryd Hayne, “it’s been a long time!”.

Eight years have passed since the Eels last played a final, when they lost the 2009 grand final to a Melbourne Storm side that nobody knew at the time had illegally assembled a side that was over the salary cap.

When the salary cap breaches were uncovered on April 22, 2010, many Eels fans turned into a rage of anger after it was revealed that their side were indeed dudded by a side which as punishment would have two premierships and three minor premierships stripped from them.

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Why it has taken until now for the blue-and-gold to return to September is anyone’s guess.

Since October 4, 2009, the Eels have seen the back of three coaches, including Daniel Anderson, Stephen Kearney and Ricky Stuart, claimed back-to-back wooden spoons in 2012 and 2013 and last year were stripped of 12 competition points and their Auckland Nines title for salary cap breaches.

But their return to the finals will indeed come full circle when they face the Storm for the first time since that decider, after achieving their first top-four finish since 2005.

But while they can take confidence from the fact they won their only regular season meeting against the Storm in Round 18, Craig Bellamy’s men were at the time missing several players to Origin duties.

It was one of four defeats the Storm have suffered this season, the others being against the Sharks, Titans and Roosters. It is their most successful regular season since 2007, when it lost just three games (though it must be said that they were fielding an illegally-assembled team that year).

The Storm also enter their fourteenth finals campaign in the last 15 years having won their last seven matches.

The first qualifying final will also pit master against apprentice, as Arthur spent several years under Bellamy at the Storm as an assistant coach during the time in which the club was ruled to have operated illegally.

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William Smith (centre) of the Eels is congratulated after scoring a try

(AAP Image/Paul Miller)

As a matter of fact, Arthur coached the Storm’s under-20s side to the Toyota Cup premiership in 2009, which remained unaffected by the punishments handed down by the NRL for the aforementioned salary cap breaches.

While the potential is there for an upset, I can’t see the Storm being beaten at home here.

For the winner: Direct passage into the preliminary final.

For the loser: Await the winner of the Sharks versus Cowboys elimination final. If the Storm lose, and the Sharks win, it will set up a grand final rematch from last year.

Prediction: Storm by 18 points.

[6] Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles versus [7] Penrith Panthers
Saturday, September 9
7:40pm
Allianz Stadium

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This season: Panthers 16-8, Round 18, Pepper Stadium; Sea Eagles 28-12, Round 26, Lottoland.

Last meeting in a final: Panthers 10-7, 1985 playoff, Sydney Cricket Ground.

It was only last Saturday night that the Sea Eagles and Panthers duked it out under the lights at Lottoland, with a fast start by the hosts seeing them run out convincing 28-12 winners.

Despite the result, both teams have qualified for the finals and seven nights on they will once again face off, this time in a sudden death elimination final at Allianz Stadium, following a dramatic final day of the regular season.

Touted as pre-season premiership favourites, the Panthers endured a horror start to the season, winning just two of their first nine games, before righting the ship to finish seventh on the ladder.

However, their title hopes have copped a major blow with news that captain Matt Moylan is set to sit out the entire finals series as he ponders his future in the game.

The time away from rugby league could help both Moylan and the Panthers in the long-term, should he decide to remain with the club beyond this year.

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The two meetings between the clubs were split this season, with each claiming a win on their home grounds.

However, this will be their first finals meeting in 32 years, when the Panthers won a finals playoff at the expense of the Sea Eagles at the SCG.

In the end, Matt Moylan’s absence will conspire against the Panthers and the Sea Eagles should make it to week two.

For the winner: A semi-final date with the loser of the Roosters versus Broncos qualifying final.

For the loser: Season over.

Prediction: Sea Eagles by 16 points.

[5] Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks versus [8] North Queensland Cowboys
Sunday, September 10
4:10pm
Allianz Stadium

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This season: Sharks 18-14, Round 11, Southern Cross Group Stadium; Sharks 26-16, Round 24, 1300SMILES Stadium.

Last meeting in a final: Sharks 32-20, 2016 second preliminary final, Allianz Stadium.

The last of the four finals will see the Sharks and Cowboys face off in a rematch of last year’s preliminary final, with this to be the fourth finals meeting between the pair in five years.

It also pits together the two most recent premiers, the Cowboys having won their first premiership in 2015 and the Sharks doing likewise last year.

Both teams defeated each other to do so, with the Cowboys winning in a semi-final landslide in 2015 by 39-0 and the Sharks getting their revenge in last year’s preliminary final, winning 32-20.

The two teams also met in a controversial elimination final in 2013, when a Beau Ryan seventh-tackle try proved to be the difference as the Sharks won a close one by 20-18.

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The Sharks have endured an up-and-down season of sorts, their inconsistency towards the back end costing them a cherished double chance in the finals.

This means that if they are to become the first team since the Broncos in 1992-93 to successfully retain their premiership, they will have to win four consecutive finals to do so.

Not since the Wests Tigers in 2005 has any team won four consecutive finals to win the title, and no team has yet done so since the current finals system was introduced in 2012.

While that is the uphill task facing the Sharks, they’ll be up for it.

Michael Morgan North Queensland Cowboys NRL Rugby League 2017

(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)

Their opponents, the Cowboys, should consider themselves lucky to have qualified for the finals for the seventh consecutive year, after the Dragons failed to beat the Bulldogs in the penultimate game of the regular season.

Their 20-10 loss to the Broncos left them at risk of missing out on September action for the first time since 2010, but the Bulldogs ended up doing them a favour by ending the Dragons’ season at ANZ Stadium last Sunday.

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Still, the Cowboys enter September in poor form, having lost five of their last six matches to tumble to their final ladder position of eighth.

The fact that Paul Green’s men have made it into the finals is an achievement in itself considering they lost both their co-captains, Matt Scott and Johnathan Thurston, to long-term knee and shoulder injuries respectively during the balance of the season.

Like the Sharks, if the Cowboys are to reach the grand final, they’ll also have to do it the hard way, but in their case they will get no home finals meaning they will have to travel for the entirety of their finals campaign.

It’s a tough ask, but will they be up for it?

For the winner: A semi-final date with the loser of the Storm versus Eels qualifying final.

For the loser: Season over.

Prediction: Sharks by 14 points.

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