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A home final by any other name smells as sweet? Not for the Cats, who travel to the MCG to play this season’s best on the home of football.
Of course, there is much much more than the location of the game at play in our second qualifying final.
To its credit, Geelong has not complained or whinged or moaned about playing their home qualifying final at their opponent’s home ground. They have done it plenty of times before, and will do it again in the future.
That HQ earns the gate from all finals matches almost guarantees that if a large crowd is expected, the ground choice is not even a choice.
Indeed, tonight’s crowd is going to be large. The MCG has advised they are anticipating an attendance of over 95,000. Ninety five thousand, people! It would be the third time in league history that a non-grand final has gone over the 95,000 threshold.
The @MCG is predicting 95,000 for #AFLCatsTigers.
Only two non-grand finals have had crowds bigger since 1973 (2007/2010 Gee v Coll PFs).
— Black Cat (@TheBlackCat1859) September 6, 2017
Why? The Tigers are playing, and their fans are giddy. Their fur preened by a fawning Melbourne media, the hype is real, and if there was a lid on the ‘G it would be blown clean off at the opening bounce. The atmosphere at this game is going to be incredible for those fortunate enough to have a seat.
For those of us at home, it looms as a special encounter. It’s as good as a preliminary final for both the Cats and Tigers, as far as what comes next is concerned. We covered this yesterday, but to repeat, the winner gets a week off and a home preliminary final against a non-Victorian team who’d be on their third week of travel.
The loser plays, in all likelihood, an excellent Sydney Swans before travelling to South Australia for a preliminary final.
It’s huge. The winner has a clear path to a grand final; the loser better have packed a machete or two.
Unlike last night’s final, we’ve got a little bit of contemporary history to lean on this evening. Much of the difference centres on the ground, and on the team sheets.
In from their last meeting come Joel Selwood (returning to the team all together this week after a nasty ankle injury), Mitch Duncan and Tom Hawkins.
More broadly at the selection table, the Cats have dropped Daniel Menzel and Wylie Buzza, with Zach Guthrie joining Selwood in the team.
Richmond has made one change, with Josh Caddy coming into the team for Oleg Markov.
Geelong ultimately got home against Richmond in Round 21, eking over the line in a scrappy, defence-first game where no one really rose above the trenches. Patrick Dangerfield got his 30 touches, and an even performance from the rest of Geelong’s second tier midfielders was able to negate the prime movers at Richmond.
The Tigers’ small forwards were completely nullified, Geelong able to trap Richmond in their half of the ground and limit any fast break scoring opportunities.
Geelong also got on the right end of a lopsided free kick count – 28-17 – which accounted for almost all of the eventual difference in contested possessions (150-132, so 122-115).
Geelong didn’t have much of a choice. They were missing their best key forward, and their second and third best midfielders. Richmond want to play the game with great pace, and the Cats were able to effectively chop that off.
It’ll be a different game tonight because Geelong has those players back and the field is significantly different in what it allows both Richmond and Geelong to do.
The wide open wings of the MCG will make it harder for the Cats to squeeze the Tigers and stop their over the back run.
Add to that Geelong’s biggest weakness – their pace in the back half – and there’s a strong likelihood Richmond get a much better look at their style of play than they were afforded down the highway.
The midfield battle looms large. Geelong held Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin to 21 and 20 touches respectively last time out, well down on season averages on both counts.
Each team has an excellent starting three: Geelong with Dangerfield, Selwood and Duncan; Richmond with Martin, Cotchin and Dion Prestia.
Zac Smith versus Toby Nankervis will be the ruck set up for pretty much the entire game given wet conditions are expected, and neither team is taking in a second ruckman. Stoppages will be important all night.
Defensive half match ups will be intriguing. There’s no doubt Geelong will be too tall for Richmond’s small-centric line up, but what they do to address the issue will be interesting.
I’d expect them to play behind Richmond’s forwards at all times, conservatively denying them space between possession and the goal-line rather than seeking to chop them off further up the ground. Jack Riewoldt will have a difficult time of it.
Up the other end, Alex Rance and David Astbury will work over Tom Hawkins as they have done to a number of key forwards in 2017. Astbury takes the forward when he’s deep, allowing Rance to roam around the 50 metre arc and helping across the rest of Richmond’s defence.
Geelong will need to make him accountable to make life easier for Hawkins and their patchwork medium-small forward group; indeed, Harry Taylor as a centre half forward will complicate matters for Richmond.
Both teams have a fleet of role players, who last time out were very good for the Cats.
It is a delicately poised encounter in every sense – the most difficult game to pick in week one. Richmond will want to go fast on the outside; Geelong slow. Both teams will be keen to scrap up the middle of the ground and hope to bully ball their way to possession wins with their top flight midfielders.
I’m not confident the Cats can stop Richmond’s pace and space attack. The Tigers have the best net margin of any team in the league at the MCG this year (+18.6 points per game), and have a 9-2 record – albeit mostly against non-MCG tenants. Their game is well suited to the wide open spaces of the home of football.
The second qualifying final will be a slog, with heavy inside play and a low score. That suits both teams, but suits Richmond more. The Tigers will break their finals duck, and win this evening by six points.
That’s my Friday night forecast, what’s yours?