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Manly Sea Eagles vs Penrith Panthers: The ultra definitive NRL elimination final stats preview

8th September, 2017
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The Panthers take on Manly in the last game of the NRL regular season. (AAP Image/Paul Miller)
Expert
8th September, 2017
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1423 Reads

For a moment last Saturday it looked like the Panthers might get so badly beaten at Brookvale that a Dragons win would see them miss the finals. At 28-0 down after 54 minutes, they only needed to concede another two tries and they would have been away to the Sharks this week.

However, late tries to Tyrone May and Reagan Campbell-Gillard saw them steady the ship. The reward is to meet the side that tore them apart again. However, this time they are on neutral ground at Allianz Stadium.

How they score and concede

I have kept records of each NRL side’s scoring in 2017 by ten-minute segments.

Below we compare the Sea Eagles attack and defence against the Panthers attack and defence. To make this even more precise, we will just examine their scores against the other sides that finished the home-and-away season in the top eight.

Sea Eagles attack/Panthers defence

0-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 Extra Total
Sea Eagles attack 4 1.33 2.67 2.56 1.78 2.22 2.67 3.33 0 20.56
Panthers defence 1.75 3.5 0.75 4 3.25 2 1.5 3 0 19.75
Average 2.9 2.4 1.7 3.3 2.5 2.1 2.1 3.2 0 20.2

The Sea Eagles will be looking for a fast start and they may just get it here.

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However, the last ten minutes of each half look the most fertile, with their attack lining up with the Panthers looser defence.

Panthers attack/Sea Eagles defence

0-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 Extra Total
Panthers attack 1.75 0.25 2.25 0.75 1 1.75 2.75 2.25 0 12.78
Sea Eagles defence 1.78 4 3.11 3.56 1.78 0.89 2.67 2.89 0 20.67
Average 1.8 2.1 2.7 2.2 1.4 1.3 2.7 2.6 0 16.7

The Panthers played eight times this season against sides that made the top eight. They only won two of those. Further, they won none away from Panther Park. That would explain the very low attacking scores here.

The Sea Eagles have a few dodgy defensive periods – 11-20 minutes and 31-40 minutes – but the only time in the match likely for the Panthers to score is the 21st to 30th minute period. This doesn’t look great for the Panthers.

Statistically predicted score: 20.2 – 16.7 Sea Eagles

Nathan Cleary Penrith Panthers NRL Rugby League 2017

(Photo by Brett Hemmings/Getty Images)

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Defence

Team Stats – average per game 2017

Stat Sea Eagles Panthers Difference
Line breaks conceded 3.7 3.5 Sea Eagles + 0.2
Missed tackles 28.6 32.6 (#1 in NRL) Panthers +4
Tries conceded 3.6 3.4 Sea Eagles +0.2
Errors 9.2 (#15 in NRL) 10.7 Panthers +1.5
Meters conceded 1360.7 1349 Sea Eagles +12
Penalties conceded 6.9 (#3 in NRL) 6.8 (#4 in NRL) Even
Drop outs conceded 1.8 1.8 Even

Defence wins finals matches, but these two sides conceded the most points during 2017 of any finalists.

The Sea Eagles errors are actually pretty low indeed, that extra possession could be key. The Panthers miss a few more tackles, but apart from that their defences are very similar.

Player Stats

Stat Sea Eagles Panthers
Tackles made Apisai Koroisau – 40
Jake Trbojevic – 38
Curtis Sironen – 25
Peter Wallace – 41
Trent Merrin – 31
Corey Harawira-Naera – 30
Reagan Campbell-Gillard – 29
Missed tackles Apisai Koroisau – 4.2
Brian Kelly – 2.7
Darcy Lussick – 2.6
Dylan Walker – 2.5
Corey Harawira-Naera – 3.2
Bryce Cartwright – 2.9
Trent Merrin – 2.8
Reagan Campbell-Gillard – 2.8
James Fisher-Harris – 2.8
Penalties conceded Blake Green – 17
Brenton Lawrence – 15
Jake Trbojevic – 13
Tyrone Peachey – 14
Isaah Yeo – 14
Waqa Blake – 12
Peter Wallace – 12
Errors Tom Trbojevic – 35
Daly Cherry-Evans – 21
Brian Kelly – 20
Dylan Walker – 19
Nathan Cleary – 26
Matthew Moylan – 26
Waqa Blake – 22
Dallin Watene Zelezniak – 22
Tyrone Peachey – 17
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Look at the missed tackles on Api Koroisau. 4.2 is a bit too high for the hooker – that’s a ten per cent missed tackle ratio.

Darcy Lussick is also a bit sloppy in defence. Corey Harawira-Naera really needs to work on his defence too, along with Bryce Cartwright – who will certainly get targeted.

Turbo Tom Trbojevic makes a fair few errors – the second most in the NRL. He needs good hands on Saturday night.

Attack

Team Stats – average per game 2017

Stat Sea Eagles Panthers Difference
Line breaks 4.5 (#2 in NRL) 4.2 Sea Eagles +0.3
Tackle breaks 26.9 32 Panthers +5.1
Tries scored 4.1 3.5 Sea Eagles +0.6
Meters made 1419 1459 Panthers +40
Penalties received 6 6.7 Panthers +0.7
Drop outs forced 2.1 (#1 in NRL) 1.5 Sea Eagles +0.6

The Sea Eagles rule one stat in particular this year – they’ve forced more drop outs than any other side.

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All you DCE haters should know the lad with the long neck is a gun at getting the ball back. And again, he’s a top bloke. The Sea Eagles are second only to the Storm when it comes to line breaks and are a bit in front of the Panthers when it comes to scoring tries. However, the Panthers bust more tackles.

Player Stats

Stat Sea Eagles Panthers
Tackle breaks Tom Trbojevic – 3.5
Dylan Walker – 3.2
Akuila Uate – 3.0
Martin Taupau – 2.9
Dylan Edwards – 5.8
Josh Mansour – 5.2
Tyrone May – 4.1
Tyrone Peachey – 3.2
Dallin Watene Zelezniak – 3.1
Line breaks Tom Trbojevic – 20
Akuila Uate – 14
Brian Kelly – 12
Dylan Walker – 11
Waqa Blake – 12
Corey Harawira-Naera – 12
Dallin Watene Zelezniak – 11
Metres gained Tom Trbojevic – 174
Martin Taupau – 152
Matthew Wright – 123
Jake Trbojevic – 117
Dylan Edwards – 166
Josh Mansour – 145
Dallin Watene Zelezniak – 128
Trent Merrin – 119
Tries scored Akuila Uate – 14
Tom Trbojevic – 12
Dylan Walker – 12
Jake Trbojevic – 9
Nathan Cleary – 11
Dallin Watene Zelezniak – 9
Matthew Moylan – 8
Tyrone Peachey – 7
Corey Harawira-Naera – 7
Waqa Blake – 7
Try assists Daly Cherry-Evans – 17
Tom Trbojevic – 15
Dylan Walker – 9
Blake Green – 8
Waqa Blake – 8
Nathan Cleary – 8
Matthew Moylan – 7
Dylan Edwards – 6
Line break assists Daly Cherry-Evans – 14
Tom Trbojevic – 13
Dylan Walker – 9
Blake Green – 9
Matthew Moylan – 10
Dean Whare – 5
Nathan Cleary – 5
Offloads Martin Taupau – 70 (#1 in NRL)
Curtis Sironen – 25
Jake Trbojevic – 22
Trent Merrin – 34
Isaah Yeo – 19

Look how good young Turbo Tom is. 3.5 tackle breaks, 20 line breaks, 174 metres, 12 tries, 13 line break assists and 15 try assists. He’s not yet 21. Strewth, he’s going to be magnificent if he improves even more. He is surely the Panthers’ biggest headache.

Have a look at Marty Taupau’s offloads. 70 of them, to go with his 152 metres, he’ll be very dangerous. I hear rumours Dylan Edwards might play, the Panthers sorely need him, especially with Moylan sitting out.

Josh Mansour is in great form though, his masses of tackle breaks and great metres will always be a challenge for his opponents.

Have a look at the try assist column. DCE and Turbo Tom have double what Waqa Blake and Nathan Cleary boast. Manly also have Blake Green and Dylan Walker who are handy with an assist. Penrith are missing Edwards and Moylan. It’s pretty grim.

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Sea Eagles player Tom Trbojevic

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

The History

Overall: This will be the 92nd match between these sides. It currently stands at Sea Eagles 56, Panthers 34 and one draw. So the Sea Eagles have won 61.5 per cent of the games since 1967.

The last ten: Recent history sees the Sea Eagles winning only three of the last ten. Before the Sea Eagles win last weekend, the Panthers had won the previous five games.

At this venue: This will be the first game ever between these two sides at the venue.

The Sea Eagles have played 62 games at Allianz with a 37-25 record, giving them a 59.7 per cent win ratio. The Panthers have played 41 games at the stadium with a 20-21 record.

Finals: Although these sides have played in a combined 115 finals matches, this is the first time in the NRL era they’ve faced off in the finals! Amazing stuff that!

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The Sea Eagles’ overall record
This will be the Sea Eagles 1562nd (NSWRFL/NSWRL/ARL/NRL) game. They have a win ratio of 57.5 per cent overall.

This will be their 92nd finals match (NSWRFL/NSWRL/ARL/NRL). They have a win ratio of 47.3 per cent.

The Sea Eagles have been in eight of the last ten finals series, only missing the last two years.

In that time they’ve been premiers twice and runners up twice in that period. However, they’ve gone no further than the semi-finals when they have finished lower than fourth on the ladder.

The Panthers’ overall record
This will be the Panthers 1203rd (NSWRFL/NSWRL/ARL/SL/NRL) game. They have a 42.4 per cent win ratio.

This will be just their 23rd finals match (NSWRFL/NSWRL/ARL/NRL). They have a 47.8 per cent win ratio.

The Panthers have only been in three of the last ten finals series. In fact, they’ve only made 11 finals series in their 51-year history (21.5 per cent).

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They made the 2014 preliminary final and were beaten narrowly by the Bulldogs. They were knocked out in the semis last year by the Raiders.

Form: The Sea Eagles managed to win three of their last five games to grab sixth spot. In among those was a win against the Roosters and a decent showing against the Panthers last week.

However, the losses to the Wests Tigers and the Bulldogs – as well as the golden point escape against the execrable Warriors – casts doubt over the Brookvale boys’ form.

When the Panthers ground out a great win over the Raiders away, they were on a seven game winning streak.

Now they are on a two game losing streak entering sudden death. Again, they’ve only won two games against the other finalists this season.

Jake Trbojevic Manly Sea Eagles NRL Rugby League 2017

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Referees: Gerard Sutton, Adam Gee in partnership

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This combination has done two matches together this season.

In both cases, the away side won – not that that is relevant here as this is neutral ground.

They average 16 penalties awarded per game (the season average is 12.9). They’ve sin binned one player for the 32 penalties they’ve awarded. Their average penalty count is 9-7 to the home side. The average count in 2017 is 6.9-6. So we can expect a lot of whistle.

This partnership has not handled either of these sides this season.

Finals: This will be Adam Gee’s very first final. Sutton will be doing his 15th final. He has never reffed the Panthers in a final, but he has controlled the Sea Eagles in three finals matches – the last being in 2014.

The Sea Eagles have a 1-3 record under him. The home side has won ten of the 14 finals he has officiated (71.4 per cent).

Referees individual records
Sutton has handled one game between these sides, a 30-0 Sea Eagles victory in Round 6, 2012. Adam Gee has never officiated a game between these sides.

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The Danger Men

Daly Cherry-Evans
He is one hated dude. People who don’t care about the Titans one bit declare they hate him for back flipping on them. If it’s true that everyone hates Manly-Warringah, then it is doubly true for DCE.

Here’s the thing though; he is very, very good. He’ll have a large say in who goes through to the semis.

daly-cherry-evans-manly-sea-eagles-nrl-rugby-league-2016

(AAP Image/Richard Wainwright)

Tom Trbojevic
I’ve gone through his stats just above, they are those of a seasoned professional and he’s only 20.

Martin Taupau
Apparently bench presses a fair bit. I thought he was a bit of a side show until this year. He’s won a fair few games for the Sea Eagles with his go forward and aggression.

Nathan Cleary
He’s got the great calm and focus of his dad, but with real top notch play making skill. He’s up for these games and will not die wondering. At just 19 we may be seeing the next great half.

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Josh Mansour
Make no mistake, when the one they call “Man Sauce” returned from his knee injury the Panthers fortunes really turned around. The bloke is a full on competitor. He’ll test the Sea Eagles defence all night.

Tyrone May
In his seven games he has scored five tries and averaged 4.1 tackle breaks. He’s just 21 but, in the absence of Moylan and Edwards, the Panthers need him to step up now. He may well.

Who is going to win and why

The Sea Eagles are going to win this. They struggled with injuries for a while, but they are now almost full strength.

They’ll be full of confidence after knocking off the Panthers so emphatically last week, while Penrith’s captain has gone off on leave, and may well leave.

Neither side has done that well away from home this year, but the Sea Eagles are just a bit better at it.

Prediction: Sea Eagles 1-12

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