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If there is a possible mismatch in week one of the finals then this is it. The Storm won a whopping 20 games en route to the minor premiership. The Eels won a very respectable 16 as they grabbed fourth spot.
However, the Storm played 12 games this season against the other sides that finished in the top eight, winning nine of those. Two of the three loses occurred when their side was gutted by Origin absences (versus Eels Round 18 and Roosters Round 16). The Eels have played nine games against the other top eight sides, winning six.
If the Eels have a glimmer of hope it is that three of the Storm’s four losses have happened at home. The 36-38 loss in Round 10 against the Titans would be of specific interest to the Eels.
I have kept records of each NRL sides scoring and conceding in 2017 by ten-minute segments. Below is the comparison of the Storm’s attack and defence against the Eels’ attack and defence. To make this even more precise, we will just examine their scores against the other sides that finished the home-and-away season in the top four.
Storm attack home/Eels defence away
| 0-10 | Nov-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50 | 51-60 | 61-70 | 71-80 | Extra | Total | |
| Storm attack | 0.57 | 2.29 | 2.57 | 2.29 | 1.71 | 3.43 | 0.86 | 4.57 | 0.14 | 18.43 |
| Eels defence | 4 | 0.67 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6.67 | 0 | 29.33 |
| Average | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 5.6 | 0.1 | 23.9 |
The Storm aren’t fast starters when it comes to scoring against top four opponents. However, the Eels’ poor defence in the opening moments might invite them to be. These figures show that the Storm is very likely to cut loose in the last ten minutes of each half when the Eels’ defence has been quite leaky.
Eels attack away/Storm defence home
| 0-10 | Nov-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50 | 51-60 | 61-70 | 71-80 | extra | total | |
| Eels attack | 5.33 | 5.33 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6.67 | 2.67 | 0 | 28 |
| Storm defence | 2.29 | 1.43 | 3.43 | 0 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1 | 2.71 | 0 | 13.14 |
| Average | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 0 | 20.6 |
The Eels like to score early, as Kirisome Auva’a’s 17th second try in Round 25 demonstrates. If the Eels are to be any chance in this game they must score early and score often.
The Storm have only lost one game at home in 2017 where they led at half time (Titans Round 10). You can see that the Storm defence becomes miserly in the second stanza.
So the Eels must go for gold early. But if they make errors, well, the merciless Borg will do to the Eels what the Mountain did to Prince Oberyn’s head. And it will be just as brutal.
Statistically predicted score: 23.9 – 20.6 Storm
(AAP Image/Joe Castro)
Team Stats – average per game 2017
| Stat | Storm | Eels | Difference |
| Line breaks conceded | 2.7 (#16 NRL) | 3.6 | +0.9 Eels |
| Missed tackles | 26 | 27.9 | +1.9 Eels |
| Tries conceded | 2.4 (#16 NRL) | 3.3 | +0.9 Eels |
| Errors | 10.2 | 10.1 | = |
| Meters conceded | 1335.9 | 1350.6 | +14.7 Eels |
| Penalties conceded | 7.3 (#1 NRL) | 6.8 (#4 NRL) | +0.5 Storm |
| Drop outs conceded | 1.5 | 1.2 | +0.3 Storm |
The Storm don’t like to concede tries. Not one bit. That’s mostly because when they concede tries they have to return to the sheds and explain to Coach Craig Bellamy why it happened.
If you have ever been close when Bellamy is angry – as I have – you’ll know it is very, very scary. The easiest thing is to avoid making him angry. This is why the Storm’s defence is the best in the NRL. Good luck Mr Arthur…
Player Stats
| Stat | Storm | Eels |
| Tackles made | Cameron Smith – 41 Dale Finucane – 34 Felise Kaufusi – 33 Tohu Harris – 30 |
Cameron King – 39
Kaysa Pritchard – 38 Nathan Brown – 35 Daniel Alvaro – 31 |
| Missed tackles | Tohu Harris – 2.5 Cameron Munster – 2.3 Will Chambers – 2.3 |
Cameron King – 3.9
Mitchell Moses – 3.6 Kaysa Pritchard – 2.7 |
| Penalties conceded | Nelson Asofa-Solomona – 18 Will Chambers – 16 Cooper Cronk – 13 Cameron Munster – 13 |
Nathan Brown – 15
Beau Scott – 15 Kenny Edwards – 14 Suaia Matagi – 12 |
| Errors | Josh Addo-Carr – 34 Suliasi Vunivalu – 27 Billy Slater – 21 Will Chambers – 20 |
Semi Radradra – 29
Michael Jennings – 20 Kenny Edwards – 19 |
Poor old Cam King and Mitch Moses. They are going to feel like the Pacific Highway on Boxing Day with the amount of traffic that is going to be coming at them.
The Eels best hope is that the four scoring machines in Slater, Chambers, Vunivalu and Addo-Carr have really bad handling – and perhaps Michael Jennings gets under Cam Smith about his ever increasing hair loss…
Team Stats – average per game 2017
| Stat | Storm | Eels | Difference |
| Line breaks | 5.4 (#1 NRL) | 4 | +1.4 Storm |
| Tackle breaks | 30.6 | 26.1 | +4.5 Storm |
| Tries scored | 4.7 (#1 NRL) | 3.5 | +1.2 Storm |
| Meters made | 1436 | 1403 | +33 Storm |
| Penalties received | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 Storm |
| Drop outs forced | 36 | 43 | +7 Eels |
So not only are the Storm dominant in three defensive categories, they also rule the roost in two attacking stats: Line breaking and try scoring.
The only consolation for the Eels here is that they are better at forcing drop outs. However, that’s probably because the Storm don’t bother with repeat sets, they just score the first time around…
Player Stats
| Stat | Storm | Eels |
| Tackle breaks | Billy Slater – 4.2 Josh Addo-Carr – 4.0 Curtis Scott – 3.9 |
Bevan French – 3.7
Semi Radradra – 3.1 Michael Jennings – 3.0 |
| Line breaks | Josh Addo-Carr – 22 Suliasi Vunivalu – 22 Felise Kaufusi – 11 Billy Slater – 11 |
Semi Radradra – 24
Clinton Gutherson – 15 Michael Jennings – 11 Bevan French – 9 |
| Metres gained | Josh Addo-Carr – 130 Jahrome Hughes – 130 Suliasi Vunivalu – 122 Will Chambers – 119 |
Semi Radradra – 138
Nathan Brown – 133 Manu Mau – 107 |
| Tries scored | Suliasi Vunivalu – 23 Josh Addo-Carr – 19 Felise Kaufusi – 8 |
Semi Radradra – 20
Clinton Gutherson – 11 Bevan French – 9 Michael Jennings – 9 |
| Try assists | Billy Slater – 16 Cooper Cronk – 15 Cameron Munster – 11 |
Mitchell Moses – 9
Corey Norman – 8 Brad Takairangi – 6 |
| Line break assists | Cameron Munster – 17 Billy Slater – 14 Cooper Cronk – 11 Cameron Smith – 9 |
Mitchell Moses – 9
Bevan French – 5 |
| Offloads | Billy Slater – 39 Cameron Munster – 30 Nelson Asofa-Solomona – 19 |
Nathan Brown – 43
Manu Mau – 28 Brad Takairangi – 22 Semi Radradra – 21 |
I can’t believe at the beginning of this season that I thought Billy Slater might be past it. He’s really, really not. A fact that the Queensland selectors also had to learn the hard way. He’s just so deadly. And then he’s backed up by Vunivalu and Addo-Carr on the wings, Will Chambers in the centres (who is in career best form), and then there is Felise Kafusi being yet another product of Craig Bellamy’s factory for try scoring back rowers factory. All this with Cooper Cronk tying it together…
But, don’t lose all hope Eels fans. You’ve got some bloody good attacking weapons too. Although losing King Gutho was really bad, Corey Norman, Semi Radradra, Mitchell Moses, Michael Jennings and Bevan French can be really great. And they are cocky. They won’t die wondering. But they have to go for it.
(Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
Overall: This will be the 33rd game between these two sides. The Storm has won 19 (57.6 per cent).
The last ten: The Storm has won six of the last ten matches between these sides. However, the Eels have won the last two games between the two in Melbourne.
At this Venue: This is the fifth game between these two sides at AAMI Park. The Storm have won three, but the Eels have won the last two.
Finals: This will be the fifth finals match between these two sides. Their last encounter was the 2009 grand final, which is also the Eels last finals appearance. A certain symmetry to that, isn’t there.
Form
The Eels have won four of their last five games, scoring 134 points along the way while conceding only 91. Their big win away over the Broncos was great but they did concede 34 points, and they lost at home to the Knights.
The Storm have won seven games straight. If they win this weekend it will be the biggest winning streak by any side in 2017. Their last loss was in Round 18 to the Eels at home. However, Smith, Cronk, Slater, Munster, Glasby and Chambers were on Origin duty. They won’t be this Saturday. They’ve clocked up 182 points in the last five weeks while only conceding 45. Ouch…
The Storm’s overall record
This will be the Storms 525th game in the NRL. They’ve got a winning percentage of 64.3 per cent.
It will be their 41st final in their twenty seasons. They have a 60 per cent winning record in finals.
They have been in nine of the last ten finals series. The only one they missed was 2010 following the salary cap scandal.
The Eels’ overall record
This will be the Eels 1609th game in the NSWRL/ARL/NRL. They’ve got a winning percentage of 45.8 per cent.
This will be their 66th finals match in their 71st season. They have a 52.3 per cent winning record in finals.
They have been in just two of the last ten finals series and they haven’t been in the finals for eight seasons.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
In partnership
These two have done six games together this season.
They average 11 penalties awarded a game (the season average is 12.9).
They’ve sin binned three players during their games together, including Clay Priest in Round 1 who is the only player to be sin binned for repeated penalties this year. That means they have a ratio of one sin bin for every 22 penalties.
Their average penalty count is 6.3–4.7 to the home side. The average count in 2017 is 6.9-6. So we can expect not too much whistle blowing – but possibly a binning.
While they have a 3–3 split of home side and away side wins under their charge, on five out of the six occasions the side that won the penalty count won the match.
This partnership has done no Storm matches in 2017 but they have done one Eels game, Parramatta’s 16-22 loss to the Raiders at home in Round 11.
Finals
This pair have never done a finals match together. In fact, it is noteworthy that Chris Sutton has never done a finals game. Sutton has been a pocket ref for the majority of the season but has come from the clouds to displace the likes of Grant Atkins, a referee who was lead ref for 25 games in 2017 – 15 of which were on free-to-air – from getting a gig this weekend.
This is especially a big statement on the part of Tony Archer as Chris Sutton was pocket referee for Atkins 11 times this season, that’s the biggest of any refereeing partnership in 2017.
Grant Atkins is a great referee and a great bloke. He deserves far better treatment than this Mr Archer.
Refs individual records
Ben Cummins has officiated two games between these sides. In 2008 the Eels won at home. In 2014 the Storm won at home. Neither were finals.
Chris Sutton has never officiated a match between these two sides.
Finals records
As stated above, this will be Chris Sutton’s first final.
This will be Ben Cummins 27th final. That has included six Storm games for a 3-3 result. Three of those were in Melbourne and the Storm only won one, the 2016 qualifying final.
The home side has won 16 times over those 26 games (61.5 per cent)
Cam Smith
Look, every Storm player is a danger man. Only the degree varies. But it is Smith that holds it all together so the magic can be weaved. The Storm can still win without Slater and Cronk, but they really struggle without Captain Cam, the most capped player of all time (in the NSWRFL, NSWRL, ARL, S/L, NRL competitions).
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Cronk, Munster, Slater, Chambers, Vunivalu, Addo-Carr
While Smith is there, these guys can weave attack so beautiful that you almost forget how horrible, boring, turgid and cynical the defence that the NRL has allowed them to master over the last decade and a half is. But a smart team plays what they can get away with. We’ve all seen it, they’re just the best at it.
Semi Radradra
The big Fijian is a class above. The Storm will be very keen to control him. Don’t expect him to be kicked too much. If he gets going the Storm could be in trouble.
Beau Scott
This bloke typifies mongrel. He’s not your mate and he’ll call you to account, so you’d better try your guts out. If you are an opposition player running the ball you’d be happier running at someone else. Beau Scott is the sort of player I really like. He’ll be targeting the Storm’s key players for brutal treatment.
Mitchell Moses
Well, you unceremoniously got off the bus Mitchell. Now it is your time to step up. We know you have got some rare talents but how will you go in this cauldron? Time to step right up. Remember: it’s not the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog. Just look at that Cronk bloke with the crooked nose for inspiration.
The Storm are going to win. Why? Because they are clearly the best team in this competition. Second and third are daylight.
The Eels will be relishing their return to the finals but this could turn into a total nightmare quickly. The remorseless Purple People will bay for blood and their Champion Gladiator will gladly butcher their opponents for them.
Supporters hoping for a miracle upset are akin to a kid waiting for Santa Claus to turn up.
Prediction: Storm 20+