For the second time in as many weeks, the Manly Sea Eagles will be in a sudden-death situation against the Penrith Panthers , as the sides clash in the second elimination final.
Last week, while other results ended up working in favour of Manly, heading into the game there was every chance they would need a win over Penrith at home to secure their spot in the finals.
And didn’t they play like it! The Sea Eagles came out of the gates at a blistering speed and from the first set, you could tell exactly what their motives were – to bash Penrith out of the game.
Their first defensive set barely allowed the Panthers to escape the red zone, and the first 20 minutes were played at an intensity not seen in any game so far this season.
They were rewarded seven minutes in with a try and eventually ran out convincing 28-12 winners. At one point, it looked like the Panthers were going to have their for and against drop so far that they would have been the team to miss the eight should the Dragons have beaten the Bulldogs on Sunday.
It was pleasing for the Sea Eagles to turn around their stumbling form, having looked flat and fatigued in the last month as they suffered losses to the Bulldogs and Tigers. It was almost a dramatic fall from grace, given Manly looked as if they were going to finish in the top four at one point.
Trent Barrett managed to turn his side around last week though, with forwards Jake Trbojevic, Darcy Lussick, Martin Taupau and Brenton Lawrence off the bench leading the way with gusto.
Shellshocked last week, Penrith have to find a way to pick up the pieces without both Matt Moylan and Dylan Edwards. While they missed them last week, things will go up a gear in the finals.
Despite a slate of wins through the second half of the season, the Panthers have had a reasonably comfortable draw and have rarely beaten top-eight teams.
The come into the finals on the back of two straight losses, going down to a desperate Dragons and then Manly last week, in what were the first high-quality opponents Penrith had faced in some time.
While competitive against the Dragons, you must win an elimination final to stay alive, and the performances they have been putting in won’t get them over the line. Nathan Cleary and Tyrone May need to rediscover their combination, and hooker Peter Wallace needs to find form.
History
Last five meetings
2017, Round 26 – Sea Eagles 28 defeat Panthers 12 at Brookvale Oval
2017, Round 18 – Panthers 16 defeat Sea Eagles 8 at Pepper Stadium
2016, Round 26 – Panthers 36 defeat Sea Eagles 6 at Pepper Stadium
2016, Round 14 – Sea Eagles 24 defeated by Panthers 31 at Brookvale Oval
2015, Round 10 – Sea Eagles 11 defeat Panthers 10 at Brookvale Oval
Team news
Unsurprisingly, the Sea Eagles haven’t made a change from their thumping win last week, despite a few health concerns late in the game.
The Panthers, maybe a little more surprisingly, are also without a change from last week – although Moylan is off the reserves bench, given he will be taking time off football.
Key players
The main battle is of the kicking games between Nathan Cleary and Daly Cherry-Evans.
The Manly half has been sensational in creating pressure this year, while Cleary’s performances have been up and down.
Despite that, Jake Trbojevic is the real key player for Manly. His leadership will need to be at its inspirational best if th Eagles pack are going to get over the line. Watch for his combination through the middle third of the field with his brother, explosive fullback Tom.
Will Manly’s defensive intensity continue?
It was no surprise that last week’s statsheet read a possession count of 57-43 in Manly’s favour, with a difference of over 500 running metres.
In some games, you’d quite rightly argue errors or penalties from the other team created the disparity, but this time, it was Manly creating their own luck. They worked hard, did the little things right in defence and were richly rewarded.
Every side coming into the finals could do worse than take notes from the Sea Eagles’ performance last week. The question though, given how sluggish Manly looked previously, is whether that ferocity will continue for another week – let alone three.
The Sea Eagles play a style of rugby league which means they need to dominate possession, and the best way to do that is to defend well and force errors. That’s what they did last week, but what they haven’t done for a month.
If Taupau, Lussick, Trbojevic and Lawrence, as well as Addin Fonua-Blake, Curtis Sironen (who was huge in his return last week) and Frank Winterstein (I know, I’ve just listed virtually the whole pack) can work together and pin Penrith early, they should be able to build off a strong start to the contest.
Defend with less intensity though, and Nathan Cleary will rip them in half.
Can Penrith overcome their injuries?
With Dean Whare again shaping up at fullback and no sign of either Edwards or Moylan, it strikes a hammer blow into the Panthers’ attacking weapons.
While May and Cleary have carried themselves well for their time as a partnership, the last fortnight has been testing.
Dylan Edwards is one of the best young fullbacks coming through the ranks, and without him on the field the Panthers lack spark. Whare ended up in the centres last week as well, given his defensive ability out there, and while he was able to shut down the dangerous Brian Kelly in the second half, the damage had been done.
The Panthers must get it right from the start – they don’t have Edwards and Moylan to join Cleary and May to bail them out.
Patience in attack will win the contest
Last year, the Sharks ground teams away, happy to play for repeat sets and wait for their time in the sun to score. In the end, it won them a premiership.
This year, it’s been Cherry-Evans and Blake Green. The pair have forced more dropouts than any other team in the competition, and it’s little surprise watching the cool, calm demeanour with which they play.
They are more than happy to roll the ball in behind all day long, and they can force up to five repeat sets in a row. They may not score, but it wears the other team down, puts them under heavy fatigue and, certainly earlier in the season when they were on their big winning run, points would come.
So, who wins it?
Manly go into this game as favourites, but it’s a game that leaves you scratching your head. Does one performance last week override a month of pretty ordinary football?
Can Penrith finally aim up against a big side in a big situation? Given their inexperience across the park, and the form they have produced, you’d have to lean towards no.
The Sea Eagles were fantastic last week, and while they won’t have it as easy, they’ll ambush the Panthers early and keep their season intact.
Prediction: Sea Eagles by 8.
Manly Sea Eagles vs Penrith Panthers: Key match information
Kick-off: 7:55pm (AEST)
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Moore Park, Sydney
TV: Live, Fox League and Nine Network
Online: Liv, Foxtel app and NRL digital pass
Betting: Sea Eagles $1.60, Panthers $2.40
Overall record: Played 84, Panthers 50, Sea Eagles 33, drawn 1
Record in finals: Played 1, Panthers 1, Sea Eagles 0
Last meeting: Round 26, Sea Eagles 28 defeat Panthers 12 at Brookvale Oval
Last five: Panthers 4, Sea Eagles 1
Record at venue: Never played
Referees: Gerard Sutton and Adam GeeManly Sea Eagles
1. Tom Trbojevic
2. Matthew Wright
3. Dylan Walker
4. Brian Kelly
5. Akuila Uate
6. Blake Green
7. Daly Cherry-Evans
8. Darcy Lussick
9. Apisai Koroisau
10. Martin Taupau
11. Frank Winterstein
12. Curtis Sironen
13. Jake Trbojevic
Interchange
14. Lewis Brown
15. Lloyd Perrett
16. Brenton Lawrence
17. Addin Fonua-blake
Reserves
18. Shaun Lane
19. Cameron Cullen
20. Jarrad Kennedy
21. Kelepi TanginoaPenrith Panthers
1. Dean Whare
2. Josh Mansour
3. Tyrone Peachey
4. Waqa Blake
5. Dallin Watene Zelezniak
6. Tyrone May
7. Nathan Cleary
8. James Tamou
9. Peter Wallace
10. Regan Campbell-Gillard
11. Corey Harawira
12. Isaah Yeo
13. Trent Merrin
Interchange
14. Sione Katoa
15. Bryce Cartwright
16. Tim Browne
17. James Fisher-Harris
Reserves
18. Moses Leota
19. Viliame Kikau
20. Dylan Edwards
21. Jarome LuaiDon’t forget The Roar will carry live coverage of every NRL finals match.
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