An intriguing week of finals ends where it began, with Port Adelaide hosting the eighth placed West Coast Eagles on a ground they’ve historically played well. Can Port Adelaide overcome their perceived struggles against the best sides in the competition?
That is something of a loaded question. Is West Coast one of the best sides in the competition? They made the eight, but by the skin of their collective teeth, and have a similarly poor record against the best in class to Port Adelaide. Tonight’s game has been described across the internet as the flat track bullies against the downhill skiers.
Port are the bullies. The Power have eviscerated the worst of the competition this season, putting up a net margin of +51 points per game against teams that finished outside the top eight.
By contrast, their net margin against teams that finished inside the top eight was -18.6. Their near-70 point differential is far and away the worst in the league – the next largest difference is Gold Coast at 43.9 points.
West Coast are the skiers. The Eagles are one of the best teams in the competition at scoring and stopping teams from scoring when they get the game on their own terms.
(AAP Image/Ben Macmahon)
If West Coast get a little bit of time and space, their skills and structures can hang with the best of them.
But they’ve been figured out, and get less time to play their way by the week. Opponents simply apply pressure in tight and man up across the ground, and West Coast are done.
That’s what Port Adelaide do. Their high pressing ways have been key to their revival in 2017, as Paddy Ryder’s stoppage artistry combines with an across-ground flexibility that makes the Power better than the sum of their parts.
In 2017, the Power have an average inside 50 differential of +8.4 per game – second only to the Adelaide Crows who do everything well.
But like their margin, the difference between Port’s press performance against finalists and non-finalists is stark.
Against the bottom 10, Port Adelaide has recorded a staggering +19.3 inside 50 differential per game. Against the top eight, their differential collapses to -7.3 per game. But there’s devil in the detail.
Port Adelaide recorded an inside 50 differential of -50 against the Adelaide Crows in Round 20, which skews their top eight number significantly.
However on the other side, the Power recorded two substantially positive inside 50 differentials against the Eagles in their two games this season, of +29 (Round Seven) and +18 (Round 16) respectively. Lies, damn lies and all that.
The first game between the two sides was the infamous game of kick to kick in West Coast’s defensive 50. The Eagles parked the bus, so to speak, and absorbed an abundance of Port Adelaide pressure.
West Coast rolled the dice to slice their way through the Power’s press, and created enough scoring opportunities while muddying up Port Adelaide’s forward line to eventually win out.
This is West Coast’s path to victory this evening. The Eagles will have to replicate the game plan that has served them well against Port Adelaide in the past.
Otherwise, Port Adelaide’s press will suffocate them, because their midfield will not be up to generating the territory required to put up a winning score.
Unlike the other games this round, it is that simple for the Eagles. If Port Adelaide are committed to their scheme and bring some inside heat, West Coast will fold.
(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)
The Eagles have gone in with an unchanged line up from their last start, although there is plenty of noise about that Sharrod Wellingham could be a late in to help bolster the defensive end of the ground – there is no irony intended in that statement.
Port Adelaide has made one change, with Jarman Impey making his way into the line up, with youngster Aidyn Johnson left out.
West Coast has three tall defenders in their back six, and Brad Sheppard and Shannon Hurn playing as mid sized stoppers with a bias to aerial play. Adding Wellingham to the mix would result in a defensive unit lacking much by way of ground ball play, making the Eagles’ intentions abundantly clear.
Will it work? Port Adelaide will know what’s coming, and will plan appropriately. Robbie Gray and Chad Wingard should spend plenty of time inside the forward 50 arc, and the Power can overcome West Coast’s defence first mindset by resisting the temptation to kick long to their tall forwards.
Like today’s early game, there seems to be a lot of talk about how West Coast can win it, rather than genuine assessments of whether this is possible. Lightning won’t strike twice – Port coach Ken Hinkley won’t allow it.
Port Adelaide will win this evening, by around four goals. That’s my AFL Finals forecast, what’s yours?
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