Any thoughts of a one-sided elimination final should be thrown out the window when the North Queensland Cowboys make the trip to Sydney in an attempt to upset the Cronulla Sharks.
This is the third time in as many seasons these sides have met in the finals. It’s hardly a surprise either, given they are the last two premiers – the Cowboys winning a famous golden-point classic in 2015, and the Sharks unseating the Storm last year.
However, meeting in the first round of the finals presents a whole new set of circumstances for sides used to being in the top four.
After a semi-final and preliminary final in the last two years, they now meet in an elimination first week final, after both sides missed the double chance.
North Queensland were lucky to scrape into the eighth spot. In fact, it wasn’t in their hands last Sunday, but the Dragons found a way to lose to the Bulldogs, extending the Cowboys’ season by at least a week.
Paul Green’s men have had their backs to the wall for most of the season. Matt Scott has missed every game and Johnathan Thurston hasn’t been sighted in club footy since before Origin, the best player in the game injuring his shoulder.
They have had other horrible injury runs through the season as well, with the remainder of their spine – Michael Morgan, Jake Granville and Lachlan Coote – not able to spend a great deal of time on the field together. Other players who have been struck down include Justin O’Neill, Antonio Winterstein, Gavin Cooper and John Asiata.
While their form coming into the finals isn’t great, the fact they are here shows their fighting spirit and incredible depth, and could inspire them to something great against a Cronulla side who have lacked consistency this season.
(AAP Image/Michael Chambers)
The Sharks were winning without playing well throughout the first half of the season, and even then, sitting in second place, it looked like we were destined for another Sharks-Storm final.
While that may not be out of the question, it’s moved further and further away from reality during the second half of the season, as Cronulla’s wins dried up.
Their defence lacked structure and they looked flat, fatigued and like a side who had run their race. It all came to a head in Round 23 when they were pumped 32-10 by the Broncos.
They hit back against the Cowboys the following week, and the first half was possibly their best 40 minutes of the season to date.
The Sharks then suffered a controversial loss to the Roosters in the Shire, before they got the better of the Newcastle Knights in the final round, with a performance which should have them primed for an assault on the finals.
Whether their creative players can keep things cool enough to grind out results over the next month remains to be seen, but their defence, discipline and error count have all improved over the last month.
History
Last five meetings
2017, Round 24 – Cowboys 16 defeated by Sharks 26 at 1300 Smiles Stadium, Townsville
2017, Round 11 – Sharks 18 defeat Cowboys 14 at Southern Cross Group Stadium, Cronulla
2016, Preliminary Final – Sharks 32 defeat Cowboys 20 at Allianz Stadium
2016, Round 14 – Sharks 13 defeat Cowboys 10 at Southern Cross Group Stadium, Cronulla
2016, Round 1 – Cowboys 20 defeat Sharks at 1300 Smiles Stadium, Townsville
Team news
The Sharks welcome back Brisbane-bound centre Jack Bird and club stalwart Wade Graham into the second row, seeing Jesse Ramien and Kurt Capewell, who has been in good form, drop to the reserves.
The Cowboys, on the other hand, are in the rare position of not having to make a change. Coote, Morgan and Granville have all been named in their positions, with mid-season recruit Te Maire Martin completing the spine.
Key players
Any number of Sharks players could hold the key, but it’s hard to look past fullback Valentine Holmes. While the forwards and James Maloney control what he can actually do to a large extent, Holmes will make the most of every opportunity. His runs from the back are strong, and he can flip the game on its head in a matter of minutes with his pace, agility and skill.
As for the Cowboys, one JT might be out, but their ten-year man isn’t. Jason Taumalolo hasn’t received the same level of credit he did last year, but that’s because his performances are just part and parcel of the Cowboys now. He has run for a staggering average of 203 metres per game, and if the Sharks can’t shut him down, a win will be hard to come by.
(AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)
The Cowboys have had their backs to the wall for so long and have fought so hard – can they keep it up?
Despite struggling to keep a regularly fit 17 on the park, North Queensland have found their way into the eight with some inspirational performances. Don’t be fooled for a second, this isn’t a side who are just here to make up the numbers.
They have proven more than a few times they can score points without Thurston, and the combination of Morgan, Granville and Coote with a bit of structure has the potential to be every bit as deadly as it reads on paper.
In Round 25, the Cowboys ran in three tries in less than ten minutes against, albeit against the Tigers, but it was a much-needed confidence boost, not to mention a win which gave them the crucial two points which ended up seeing them qualify for the finals.
If they can find a way to win, it will be one of the club’s greatest stories. Without their two best players, it’s a side against the odds – but the Cowboys playing against the odds are dangerous.
The Sharks still aren’t playing well – will we see a new-look side?
The Sharks have improved a hell of a lot over the last month, but there is still a ways to go before their form can be considered among the top sides.
We’ve seen glimpses in 2017, and Cronulla have stood up under pressure when they needed to, but they could have made the season a great deal easier by playing consistently and patiently.
Too often they have tried to make the miracle inside-ball work, or force a play that wasn’t on. Then there is their defensive discipline, Cronulla the most penalised side in the competition.
There is plenty for the Sharks to work on, but you have a feeling coach Shane Flanagan will have his troops primed for the finals – he certainly did last year.
It’ll take a turnaround, but if there’s any side who can do it, it’s Cronulla.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Will Andrew Fifita aim up?
I can only imagine the big Cronulla prop is not all that fun to coach. He has the size, strength and talent to be the best front rower in the competition, but you can’t be the best at anything if you’re not consistent.
On his day – remember Origin 1, when Queensland couldn’t stop him? – Fifita is the best prop in the game. But if he isn’t on his game, then he is wasting a spot in the 17. He runs sideways or tries miracle offloads – it must just about make a coach want to rip their hair out, knowing the potential he has.
If the right version of Fifita shows up then, firstly what a battle it’ll be between him and Taumalolo, and secondly, the Sharks are suddenly premiership contenders again.
So, who wins it?
Despite the Sharks’ noted issues throughout the 2017 season, they have improved plenty in the last month, and will look to continue that over the next.
The Cowboys are fatigued, still down on troops, and simply won’t have the talent to match Paul Gallen and his troops.
Prediction: Sharks by 10.
Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys: Key match information
Kick-off: 4:10pm (AEST)
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Moore Park, Sydney
TV: Live, Fox League and Nine Network
Online: Live, Foxtel app and NRL digital pass
Betting: Sharks $1.34, Cowboys $3.30
Overall record: Played 43, Sharks 27, Panthers 16
Record in finals: Played 3, Sharks 2, Cowboys 1
Last meeting: Round 24 – Cowboys 16 defeated by Sharks 26
Last five: Sharks 4, Cowboys 1
Record at venue: Played 2, Sharks 2, Cowboys 0
Referees: Ashley Klein and Gavin BadgerCronulla Sharks
1. Valentine Holmes
2. Sosaia Feki
3. Jack Bird
4. Ricky Leutele
5. Gerard Beale
6. James Maloney
7. Chad Townsend
8. Andrew Fifita
9. Jayden Brailey
10. Matt Prior
11. Luke Lewis
12. Wade Graham
13. Paul Gallen
Interchange
14. Jayson Bukuya
15. Chris Heighington
16. Jeremy Latimore
17. James Segeyaro
Reserves
18. Kurt Capewell
19. Fa’amanu Brown
20. Jesse Ramien
21. Joseph PauloNorth Queensland Cowboys
1. Lachlan Coote
2. Kyle Feldt
3. Javid Bowen
4. Kane Linnett
5. Antonio Winterstein
6. Te Maire Martin
7. Michael Morgan
8. John Asiata
9. Jake Granville
10. Scott Bolton
11. Gavin Cooper
12. Ethan Lowe
13. Jason Taumalolo
Interchange
14. Ben Hampton
15. Coen Hess
16. Corey Jensen
17. Shaun Fensom
Reserves
18. Ray Thompson
19. Kyle Laybutt
20. Braeden Uele
21. Enari Tuala
Don’t forget The Roar will carry live coverage of every NRL finals match.
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