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Broncos vs Panthers: The ultra-definitive NRL semi-final stats preview

14th September, 2017
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Josh McGuire of the Broncos talks to team mates during the NRL Qualifying Final match between the Sydney Roosters and the Brisbane Broncos at Allianz Stadium on September 8, 2017 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Expert
14th September, 2017
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Week 2 of the finals opens with a sudden-death clash in Brisbane, the winner being rewarded with a preliminary final away to the Melbourne Storm.

The Broncos oh-so-nearly upset the Roosters at home but were beaten by a barnstorming Latrell Mitchell. The Panthers managed to reverse results on the Sea Eagles to win through to their second away semi-final in two years.

How they score and concede

I have kept precise records of each NRL sides’ scoring in 2017. We can now get a pretty good indication of how this match will play out by comparing Brisbane’s home attack and defence against the Penrith’s away attack and defence.

To make this even more precise, we will just examine the Panthers’ scores against top-four sides away and the Broncos’ scores against top-eight sides at home.

The home side have played top-eight sides six times at home in 2017, winning three and losing three. Eight times they have led at halftime when playing at home and they’ve won seven of them.

The visitors have played top-four sides away from home three times in 2017: The Storm in Round 5, the Broncos in Round 9 and the Eels in Round 8. They lost all of them. In fact, they’ve played top-four sides five times in 2017 and lost all of them.

Broncos’ attack/Panthers’ defence

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0-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 Extra Total
Broncos’ attack 3.67 1 3 4.33 1.67 5 2.33 4.67 0 25.67
Panthers’ defence 2 8 0 6 3 3 1 7 0 30
Average 2.84 4.5 1.5 5.17 2.34 4 1.67 5.84 0 27.84

What we are looking for is where scoring and conceding match up. We can expect the Broncos to score in the first ten minutes, and probably the second ten as well, as the Panthers’ defence isn’t great then.

Again, the last ten minutes of the first half should see Brisbane score more points. This could be over at halftime – there are two more ten-minute periods in the second half where it looks good for the Broncos scoring, especially the last ten minutes.

Panthers’ attack/Broncos’ defence

0-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 Extra Total
Panthers’ attack 0 0 3 0 0 0 6 3 0 12
Broncos’ defence 2.67 6 2 3 2 2.67 3 2.67 0.17 24.17
Average 1.34 3 2.5 1.5 1 1.34 4.5 2.84 0.09 18.09

This looks grim for Penrith. Apart from the last 20 minutes, there are really no great scoring periods. While a small sample, when you add their two other matches against top-four sides, these figures actually get worse.

While their form has distinctly improved, 11 of the Penrith’s 14 wins this year were against sides who finished in the bottom eight. Other than that, they beat the Sea Eagles twice and the Cowboys once.

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If Anthony Griffin’s side are going to be a chance, they must take advantage of Brisbane’s first-half frailties.

Statistically predicted score: 28-18 Broncos

Defence

Team stats – average per game 2017

Stat Broncos Panthers Difference
Line breaks conceded 3.4 3.4 =
Missed tackles 30.2 32.5 (#1 NRL) +2.3 Panthers
Tries conceded 3.2 3.3 +0.1 Panthers
Errors 9.4 (#14 NRL) 10.6 +1.4 Panthers
Metres conceded 1405 1346 +59 Broncos
Penalties conceded 5.4 (#14 NRL) 6.8 (#4 NRL) +1.4 Panthers
Drop-outs conceded 1.8 1.8 =

Apart from metres conceded, Penrith are apparently in strife. However, what these stats don’t show is just how much their defensive stats have improved over the last ten games (with the exception of missed tackles) and how much the Broncos have fallen away.

For example, the Panthers have only conceded six points in the last 20 minutes of their last seven games combined. Further, Brisbane have averaged 35.25 missed tackles over the last four games, including a massive 47 last week. Over the same period they’ve averaged 4.25 tries a game conceded and 10.1 errors.

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Further, see below that they don’t win that many penalty counts under referee Gerard Sutton.

Considering all this, and that the Panthers weren’t that far behind them in these stats anyway, expect both sides to score points.

Player Stats

Stat Broncos Panthers
Tackles made Andrew McCullough – 50
Matt Gillett – 37
Josh McGuire – 33
Peter Wallace – 42
Trent Merrin – 31
Corey Harawira-Naera – 30
Reagan Campbell-Gillard – 29
Missed tackles Ben Hunt – 3.6
Matt Gillett – 3.3
Anthony Milford – 2.9
Kodi Nikorima – 2.6
Corey Harawira-Naera – 3.1
Bryce Cartwright – 3.0
Reagan Campbell-Gillard – 2.9
Trent Merrin – 2.7
James Fisher-Harris – 2.7
Penalties conceded Tautau Moga – 19
Adam Blair – 16
James Roberts – 12
Isaah Yeo – 15
Tyrone Peachey – 14
Waqa Blake – 12
Peter Wallace – 12
Errors Corey Oates – 25
Anthony Milford – 25
James Roberts – 21
Jordan Kahu – 18
Dallin Watene Zelezniak – 26
Nathan Cleary – 26
Matthew Moylan – 26
Waqa Blake – 22
Tyrone Peachey – 18

I’m sorry Broncos fans that I keep leaving Andrew McCullough’s tackles listed. However, those tackles – and the control he brings to the centre of defence – are just so vital, and a large part of the reason their defensive stats have been going backwards.

Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Corey Harawira-Naera both have a ten per cent-plus missed tackle ratio, as does Matt Gillett for Brisbane. Gillett and Glenn missed a massive 11 tackles between them last week – poor for back rowers.

However, the players with big targets on them will be Ben Hunt, James Fisher-Harris and Bryce Cartwright, who all have distinct defensive frailties, having missed seven, two and four respectively last week.

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Tautau Moga and Adam Blair are the worst penalty conceders here and neither even register on the Maloney Scale.

Attack

Team Stats – average per game 2017

Stat Broncos Panthers Difference
Line breaks 4.2 4.1 +0.1 Broncos
Tackle breaks 32.9 32 +0.9 Broncos
Tries scored 4.3 3.4 +0.9 Broncos
Metres made 1507 (#2 NRL) 1455 +54 Broncos
Penalties received 5.5 6.7 +1.2 Panthers
Drop-outs forced 1.7 1.6 +0.1 Broncos

While the Broncos’ defence has gone backwards and the Panthers’ defence has improved of late, it is the reverse in attack.

Over the last five rounds, Brisbane are scoring more tries (4.8 avg) and more tackle breaks (37.4 avg) than over the season as a whole.

Meanwhile, Penrith’s attacking stats have fallen slightly over the last five games (1382 metres avg, three tries scored avg, four line breaks avg).

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As we know from their win at this venue in Round 20, 2016, Penrith can rack up points away from home. They will know that they can’t hope to defend their way to victory, as will the home side. Expect some all-out attack in this game.

Player stats

Stat Broncos Panthers
Tackle breaks James Roberts – 3.9
Anthony Milford – 3.8
Tautau Moga – 3.4
Dylan Edwards – 5.7
Josh Mansour – 5.2
Tyrone May – 3.9
Tyrone Peachey – 3.3
Dallin Watene Zelezniak – 3.1
Line breaks James Roberts – 15
Corey Oates – 11
Tautau Moga – 10
Waqa Blake – 12
Corey Harawira-Naera – 12
Dallin Watene Zelezniak – 11
Metres gained Corey Oates – 156
Tautau Moga – 134
Josh McGuire – 131
James Roberts – 120
Dylan Edwards – 166
Josh Mansour – 149
Dallin Watene Zelezniak – 127
Trent Merrin – 117
Tries scored James Roberts – 17
Corey Oates – 15
Tautau Moga – 9
Jordan Kahu – 9
Nathan Cleary – 11
Dallin Watene Zelezniak – 9
Tyrone Peachey – 8
Matthew Moylan- 8
Corey Harawira-Naera – 7
Waqa Blake – 7
Try assists Anthony Milford – 17
Ben Hunt – 10
Darius Boyd – 8
Nathan Cleary – 9
Waqa Blake – 8
Matthew Moylan – 7
Dylan Edwards – 6
Line break assists Anthony Milford – 16
Darius Boyd – 9
Kodi Nikorima – 9
Matthew Moylan – 10
Dean Whare – 5
Nathan Cleary – 5
Offloads Anthony Milford – 46
Adam Blair – 42
Tevita Pangai Jnr – 29
Korbin Sims- 26
Trent Merrin – 37
Isaah Yeo – 19

Look at all that tackle-breaking power from the Mountain Men. Dylan Edwards’ successful return was a godsend, though I thought his leg might have gone on his very first run.

Neither Anthony Milford nor James Roberts had a happy time of it in defence against the Roosters last week, missing eight tackles between them. However, it is in attack where they can lead their side to the preliminary final.

Along with the soon-departing Ben Hunt, their attacking performance in this match will probably decide it. If the passes stick, and the tackles and lines are broken, they may do a number on the Panthers. However, there is no tomorrow for the loser and there is so much attacking prowess among both these teams.

The danger men

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Anthony Milford
He’ll want redemption following last week’s loss. Penrith’s massive predilection for missing tackles will be music to this pinball’s ears – few in the game can turn a half break into a try as fast as Milford can.

Ben Hunt
Similarly, Hunt will be looking for redemption – he missed seven tackles against the Roosters, which will have stung. He’ll be on the attack.

James Roberts
Tyrone Peachey can talk a bit of smack but he can’t run like Jimmy the Jet. Tyrone better bring his tackling A-game.

Trent Merrin
This stage is made for the big unit. His barnstorming runs and offloads will cause the Broncos’ defence real headaches.

Nathan Cleary
I know we are all putting too much pressure on the kid but it doesn’t seem to affect him. He is so smart and so talented for a 19-year-old. This is the sort of game where he could really announce himself. He’ll be very aware of the opposition’s defensive malaise.

Josh Mansour
He’s the best winger on the field, and this game will be decided by the best attack. Both sides will be going all out. No one goes all out like ‘Mansauce’.

The history

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Overall
This will be the 55th game between these two sides since 1988. It currently stands as the Broncos 32 wins, Panthers 21 wins, with one draw.

This will be the 27th clash in Brisbane. It currently stands at 20-6 in the home side’s favour, with Wayne Bennett’s boys winning seven of the last ten.

The last ten
Penrith have won six of the last ten games between the teams, with an average score of 22-18.

At this venue
This will be the 18th match between these sides at Lang Park. Currently it stands 11-6 to the home team, and the Broncos have won four of the last five games here by an average score of 18-15.

Nathan Cleary Penrith Panthers NRL Rugby League 2017

. (Photo by Brett Hemmings/Getty Images)

Last time they met here was in Round 9 this year, Brisbane winning 32-18.

Finals
These two sides have only met twice in finals in the 29 years they’ve been playing each other. Both games were in Sydney and the Panthers won both: 26-16 in the 1990 major preliminary final at the SFS, and 28-18 in the 2003 qualifying final at Panther Park.

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Form
Brisbane come into this game having won six of their last ten, with three of those wins on the road over the Cowboys, Titans and Knights. They were thumped at home by the Eels 52-34 in Round 25, but have won nine of 12 home games in 2017.

The Panthers have won eight of their last ten games, with their two losses against the Dragons in Round 25 and the Sea Eagle in Round 26. Their last four games on the road have had an average score of 20.5-23.5. Penrith have won six of 13 away games this season.

The Broncos’ overall record
This will be their 757th game since joining the competition in 1988, with a 61.7 per cent win ratio overall.

They have played 56 finals matches with a win ratio of 52.7 per cent.

They have only missed the finals four times in their 30-year history (1988, 1991, 2010, 2013) and have featured in eight of the last ten series.

The Panthers’ overall record
This will be Penrith’s 1204th game, with a 42.5 per cent win ratio.

This will be just their 24th finals match, for a 47.8 per cent win ratio.

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The Panthers have only been in three of the last ten series – in fact, they’ve only made the finals 11 times in their 51-year history (21.5 per cent).

They made the 2014 preliminary final only to be beaten narrowly by the Bulldogs, and were knocked out in the semis last year by the Raiders. This is the second consecutive year that they’ve won through to the semis.

The referees

Gerard Sutton, Adam Gee

2017 in partnership
This will be the fourth game this combination has done together and in all cases the away side won: the Raiders over the Sharks in Round 22, the Broncos over the Cowboys in Round 26, and the Panthers over the Sea Eagles in last week’s final.

Broncos’ 2017 record
Sutton has controlled five Broncos games in 2017, with Brisbane winning four and all three at home. However, on only two out of five times did Benny’s boys win the penalty count.

Boyd Cordner Sydney Roosters NRL Rugby League 2017

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

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Gee has handled two Broncos games as lead ref in 2017, both away games. They beat the Knights in Round 19, but the Warriors got the better of them in Round 12. On both occasions, Brisbane lost the penalty count.

Gee has also done four Broncos games in 2017 as pocket ref, Brisbane winning two from four, but only one of the penalty counts.

Broncos’ overall record
Sutton has run 41 Broncos games, the Queenslanders winning 22 overall and eight of the last ten games he has controlled for them.

Brisbane have won seven of the 12 matches Gee has handled, but they’ve only won two out of the five he controlled in Brisbane.

Panthers’ 2017 record
Sutton has controlled five Panthers games in 2017, Penrith winning just two of them: Round 2 versus the Wests Tigers, and last week’s win over the Sea Eagles. On two occasions they won the penalty count.

Gee has not run a Panthers game as lead ref in 2017 and last week’s final was his first as pocket ref for a Penrith game in 2017.

Panthers’ overall record
Sutton has run 19 Panthers games with the men from the foot of the mountains winning eight. However, four of those wins came between 2009 and 2011, right at the beginning of his association with the club.

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Of the 11 Panthers games Gee has controlled, Penrith have only won four.

Games between these sides
Sutton has refereed one game between these sides, the Broncos 32-18 win in Round 9, which is the last time these two sides met here.

Gee has never refereed a game between these sides.

Finals
This will be Sutton’s 16th finals game, the home side winning ten of them.

This will be Gee’s second final.

Who is going to win and why

This will be an all-out attack-fest for the ages – I fully expect to see 50-plus points.

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While the Panthers could get the win, I’m going with the home ground advantage to get the Broncos home.

Prediction
Broncos 1-12.

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