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These two sides were on opposite sides of very narrow results last week. The Eels denied by a very good Storm second-half resurgence, the Cowboys triumphant due in most part because they just refuse to capitulate.
» BURGIN: If you’re going to introduce fair play, go the whole hog
» Five talking points from Broncos vs Panthers
» Eels vs Cowboys preview and prediction
Whoever wins this game will probably be the popular champion of the non-aligned fans going into the preliminary finals. But who will that be?
I’ve kept all of the scores from every match this season and when they were scored, by whom, against whom. I can now properly compare both sides scoring and conceding patterns against the relevant cohorts: the Eels playing top eight sides at home, the Cowboys playing top four sides away.
Eels attack/Cowboys defence
| 0-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50 | 51-60 | 61-70 | 71-80 | Extra | Total | |
| Eels attack | 1.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| Cowboys defence | 2.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 2 | 8 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.25 | 20.75 |
| Average | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 2.5 | 1.75 | 5 | 2.75 | 1.75 | 0.13 | 18.38 |
The Cows may concede early points and again in the ten before half time. However, from the 51st to 70th minutes looks to be their biggest risk periods. The Eels scoring patterns against top eight sides at home seem to be pretty even.
Cowboys attack/Eels defence
| 0-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50 | 51-60 | 61-70 | 71-80 | Extra | Total | |
| Cowboys attack | 1.5 | 4 | 2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 2 | 0.25 | 18.25 |
| Eels defence | 5.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 |
| Average | 3.5 | 2.25 | 2 | 4.25 | 2.25 | 2 | 1.25 | 1 | 0.13 | 18.63 |
Ouch! The Eels defence at the beginning of games looks very shaky. However, it is the last ten minutes of the first half that they should be on red alert. As well, the 51st to 60th minutes look risky. That ten minutes before half time is where the Cowboys defence really seems to shine.
Statistically predicted score: 18.63 – 18.38 Cowboys
Yep, the stats say this game is on a knife’s edge, just giving it to the Cowboys. Extra time again perhaps?
Team stats – average per game 2017
| Stat | Eels | Cowboys | Difference |
| Line breaks conceded | 3.7 | 4.4 | Cowboys +0.7 |
| Missed tackles | 28.2 | 28.9 | Cowboys +0.7 |
| Tries conceded | 3.2 | 3.2 | Equal |
| Errors | 10 | 9.4 | Eels +0.6 |
| Metres conceded | 1351 | 1343 | Equal |
| Penalties conceded | 6.9 | 6 | Eels +0.9 |
| Drop outs conceded | 1.1 | 1.6 | Cowboys +0.5 |
There is nothing in these stats. Both sides’ defence is virtually the same. The Cowboys have conceded slightly more line breaks. Contrary to what my surface impressions were, both sides have pretty good defence. Both concede very low quantities of penalties too.
Player stats
| Stat | Eels | Cowboys |
| Tackles made | Cameron King – 39 Kaysa Pritchard – 38 Nathan Brown – 35 Daniel Alvaro – 31 |
Scott Bolton – 32
Jake Granville – 32 Gavin Cooper – 31 Ethan Lowe – 30 Jason Taumalolo – 28 |
| Missed tackles | Cameron King – 3.8 Mitchell Moses – 3.7 Kaysa Pritchard – 2.7 |
Ethan Lowe – 3.3
Jake Granville – 2.5 Michael Morgan – 2.4 Temaire Martin – 2.3 |
| Penalties conceded | Nathan Brown – 16 Beau Scott – 15 Kenny Edwards – 14 Suaia Matagi – 13 |
Jake Granville – 15
Kyle Feldt – 13 Coen Hess – 13 Michael Morgan – 13 |
| Errors | Semi Radradra – 29 Michael Jennings – 20 Kenny Edwards – 19 |
Kyle Feldt – 32
Lachlan Coote – 24 Michael Morgan – 24 |
It is always a very good sign for a team when they have multiple tacklers who average over 30 tackles a game. Both of these sides do. Cam King, Ethan Lowe and Jake Granville all have missed tackle ratios nearing or at ten per cent, but they are willing. Talking about willing, how good is Nathan Brown at lock?
I’m just loving his work. No show pony makes 35 tackles a game either. Jason Taumalolo will be positively aimed at Mitch Moses. Young Mitch better have been practising tackling buses on Parramatta Road this week. No really bad penalty conceders here really. Should be a clean game.
Team Stats – average per game 2017
| Stat | Eels | Cowboys | Difference |
| Line breaks | 4 | 3.5 | Eels +0.5 |
| Tackle breaks | 25.9 | 29.5 | Cowboys +3.6 |
| Tries scored | 3.5 | 3.3 | Equal |
| Metres made | 1396 | 1439 | Cowboys +45 |
| Penalties received | 5.7 | 7.8 | Cowboys +2.1 |
| Drop outs forced | 1.1 | 1.6 | Cowboys +0.5 |
The Cows come out slightly on top when these stats are examined. I reckon the extra metres and tackle breaks can be attributed to Taumalolo. The Cowboys get more penalties than any other side. Combined with the Eels one extra penalty, those three extra possessions for the Cowboys could be telling.
Player stats
| Stat | Eels | Cowboys |
| Tackle breaks | Bevan French – 3.7 Semi Radradra – 3.0 Michael Jennings – 2.9 |
Jason Taumalolo – 4.7
Michael Morgan – 3.4 Kyle Feldt – 2.9 Coen Hess – 2.6 |
| Line breaks | Semi Radradra – 24 Clinton Gutherson – 15 Michael Jennings – 11 Bevan French – 9 |
Coen Hess – 11
Kyle Feldt – 11 Michael Morgan – 9 |
| Metres gained | Semi Radradra – 136 Nathan Brown – 133 Manu Mau – 107 |
Jason Taumalolo – 190
Scott Bolton – 123 Kyle Feldt – 109 |
| Tries scored | Semi Radradra – 21 Clinton Gutherson – 11 Bevan French – 9 Michael Jennings – 9 |
Kyle Feldt – 13
Coen Hess – 12 Michael Morgan – 10 |
| Try assists | Mitchell Moses – 10 Corey Norman – 9 Brad Takairangi – 6 |
Michael Morgan – 16
Lachlan Coote – 8 Jake Granville – 8 |
| Line break assists | Mitchell Moses – 10 Corey Norman – 5 |
Lachlan Coote – 11
Michael Morgan – 7 |
| Offloads | Nathan Brown – 43 Manu Mau – 28 Brad Takairangi – 23 Semi Radradra – 22 |
Jason Taumalolo – 28
Michael Morgan – 20 John Asiata – 15 |
Both these sides are missing some wonderful talent. Justin O’Neill may have been dropped from Origin but he is a great centre. Bevan French is a livewire and a competitor too. However, the two I miss most are Johnathan Thurston and Clint Gutherson.
JT is the best player in the game and it is an honour to have watched him play. The Cows have been valiant in his absence but they’d be contenders if he was there.
While King Gutho ain’t in Thurston’s league if he was still fit I reckon the Eels would be a real chance. I’ve liked the cut of his jib since I first saw him on the wing for Manly.
Who is going to stop Taumololo? He’s got to be stopped or at least limited. It is a huge ask. It may determine the game again like it determined the Sharks game.
Can Semi Radradra fire up? If he does, who is going to stop him. He is a genuine finisher.
The battle of the playmakers is a big one. Moses may be a speed bump in defence but he’s getting braver and braver in attack, passing ever later to draw players. As long as he keeps getting up he is incredibly influential.
He is well supported by Corey Norman. Michael Morgan has stepped up really well into the void left by JT. I’m a huge fan of the man and his game. Lachlan Coote and Jake Granville give him good support.
Look at Nathan Brown’s offloads. That’s really impressive and very dangerous.
Mitchell Moses. When the mid-season buy plays well the Eels are very dangerous. He is a total liability in defence but in attack he can be stellar. How he goes may decide this game.
Nathan Brown. 35 tackles, 43 offloads and 133 metres a game. Wow. He’s got the rubbish out of his game and he is just superb. What a great signing. He is a match winner.
Semi Radradra. The big Aussie Fijian has another two gears from what he showed last week. I severely doubt he’ll finish on 21 tries for the season. If he gets on a roll it could be messy for the Cows.
Jason Taumalolo. Talking about things getting messy when a player is on a roll, the reigning Dally M Medallist is just superb. Very big, very fast, a great step and able to do 60 good minutes. The Eels forwards have got a job to do containing him.
Michael Morgan. He has stepped up into the leader of this side so well. An FNQ boy, he will not die wondering. Either setting up tries, forcing drop outs or going through the line himself, he intends to get his side into the prelim. He just might.
Jake Granville. Not only is he a great defensive hooker, he’s a clever playmaker around the ruck. If the Cows are to win this he’ll have to be at his scheming best.
Overall: This will be the 38th game between these two sides. The Eels have a slight advantage with 19 wins to the Cowboys 17. There has been one draw.
The last ten: The Eels have only won three of the last ten between these sides. Their last encounter was the Cowboys’ 32-6 win in Darwin in Round 14. Notably, Thurston was playing.
At this Venue: These two sides have only met once before at this venue. That was the 2005 Preliminary final. The Cowboys prevailed 29-0.
Finals: The above match is also the only time the two sides have met in the finals.
Form
The Cowboys have won five of their last ten games but just two of their last seven. However, only the loss to the Storm was by more than ten points.
The Eels have won eight of their last ten games. That has included two wins over the Broncos.
The Eels’ overall record
This will be the Eels 1610th game. They’ve got a winning percentage of 45.8 per cent.
This will be their 67th finals match in their 71st season. They have a 52.4 per cent winning record in finals.
They have been in just two of the last ten finals series and they haven’t been in the finals for eight seasons.
The Cowboys’ overall record
This will be the Cowboys 570th game since entering the competition in 1995, they’ve won 243 with a win ratio of 42.7 per cent. This will be the Cowboys 26th finals match, they have won 13 with a win ratio of 52 per cent.
The Cowboys have played in seven of the last ten finals series, including the last six. They have also only got past the semis when they have finished in the top four.
Referees: Matt Cecchin, Ben Cummins
This is the partnership that controlled last year’s grand final. This is the first game they’ve done together this year.
This will be Ben Cummins 27th finals game. He has controlled four grand finals.
This will be Matt Cecchin’s 19th finals game. He has done two grand finals.
Referees individual records: Matt Cecchin, over his 276 NRL games, has never refereed a game between these two sides.
Cecchin has controlled 29 Eels games with Paramatta winning 12 (41.4 per cent). However, they have won six of the last ten under him.
Cecchin has controlled 39 Cowboys games having won 20 of them (51.3 per cent). However, they’ve won 15 of the last 20 games he has controlled, including eight of the last nine.
Ben Cummins has refereed two games between these sides. Both were in 2014. The home side won both times.
Cummins has controlled 46 Cowboys games of which they’ve won 24 (52.2 per cent). He’s done four this year and the Cowboys have only lost one.
Cummins has done 31 Eels games with Parramatta winning 14 (45.2 per cent). They’ve won four of the last ten under him.
My gut tells me the Eels. Because they are at home. Because Thurston is out. Because the Eels front row is better. But the stats say too close to call. I just can’t write off the Cowboys as a result.
Prediction
Too close to call.