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Parramatta Eels vs North Queensland Cowboys: NRL semi-final preview and prediction

15th September, 2017
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Antonio Winterstein and the Cowboys celebrate after the NRL elimination final between the Cronulla Sutherland Sharks and the North Queensland Cowboys at Allianz Stadium in Sydney, Sunday, September 10, 2017. (AAP Image/Craig Golding)
Expert
15th September, 2017
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1311 Reads

The Parramatta Eels might have lost their qualifying final last weekend, but they will still enter the second week of the finals to record a victory over the brave and determined North Queensland Cowboys in their semi-final.

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Despite the Cowboys struggles with injuries and form over the second half of the season, they have fought all the way to the line and this poses as a danger game for the Eels.

Brad Arthur’s men had a great finish to the regular season and snuck into the top four. It proved to be invaluable last week when they were tasked with travelling to Melbourne. Far from disgracing themselves, the Eels led 10-4 at the break, shocking most onlookers.

The second half, controversial or not saw the Eels lose their way. They made silly errors, their defensive intensity wasn’t quite what it was, and the Storm made them pay.

The Storm are the best team in the competition and Parramatta learnt that the hard way. While the wheels did fall off, they recovered at the back end of the second half to stay in the contest, eventually dropping to an 18-16 loss, which by no means is poor.

Parramatta will need to improve if they were to again come up against Melbourne on grand final day, but they can’t afford to get ahead of themselves, despite showing good signs. They need to get over the Cowboys, which will be easier said than done, and then work their way past the Sydney Roosters at Allianz Stadium next weekend in a preliminary final.

Parramatta Eels NRL Rugby League Finals 2017

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

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While no one expected the Cowboys to be here in the second week of the finals, they pulled off one of the upsets of the season to edge out Cronulla in extra time last weekend.

North Queensland should have been out of the contest by halftime. While Cronulla errors kept them in the contest as they controlled things in the first half, full credit must go to the gritty and determined North Queensland defence.

Going to halftime with only a penalty goal to their name and looking fatigued, they came out of halftime and found their way over the line twice through Kyle Feldt and Jason Taumalolo to tie things up and send the game to extra time.

Michael Morgan then calmly slotted a field goal, while the Sharks went from one disaster to the next in the face of good defensive pressure, and Paul Green’s side unexpectedly advanced to the semi-finals.

Intriguingly, there have only been two of the last five won by the home team in this match-up. With the Eels playing at their 2017 home ground of Homebush in this semi-final, it offers some food for thought.

History

Last five meetings
2017, Round 14 – Eels 6 defeated by Cowboys 32 at TIO Stadium, Darwin
2017, Round 9 – Cowboys 26 defeat Eels 6 at 1300 Smiles Stadium, Townsville
2016, Round 8 – Cowboys 16 defeated by Eels 32 at 1300 Smiles Stadium, Townsville
2016, Round 2 – Eels 16 defeated by Cowboys 20 at Parramatta Stadium
2015, Round 20 – Cowboys 46 defeat Eels 4 at 1300 Smiles Stadium, Townsville
Cowboys 3 – Eels 2

Team news
No changes for either team. Queensland State of Origin centre Justin O’Neill has been added to the Cowboys reserves list, so is an outside at making his return from a long-term arm injury.

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Antonio Winterstein has been named on the wing, despite appearing to be on one leg last week. He could well be replaced by O’Neill if he is fit.

Key players
If there’s one man who won the game for the Cowboys against the Sharks last week, then it’s Jason Taumalolo. If you haven’t seen his numbers yet, allow me to fill you in. 72 minutes, 252 metres from 22 runs, a try, a few line breaks, a whole stack of post contact metres and 37 tackles.

If that doesn’t leave the Eels shaking in their boots, nothing will. The ‘other JT’ hasn’t quite got the recognition he deserves in 2017, but it’s because he is expected to make superhuman efforts every week after last season. It’s a cruel world, but Taumalolo is still the best lock in the competition.

Jason Taumalolo

(AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)

On the other side of the coin, it’s sticking with the forwards. We know what Corey Norman and Mitchell Moses are capable of – and more on them shortly – but it’s Nathan Brown. The Eels’ lock is having a career-best season, averaging over 150 metres per game and looking dangerous every time he gets his hands on the steeden.

He is critical in leading the Eels pack and laying a platform for Norman and Moses. Without him, there is no attacking game for Parramatta, much the same way the Cowboys rely on Taumalolo for metres up the middle to lay a platform.

Just how good is the Mitchell Moses and Corey Norman connection?
There’s no denying that Moses and Norman have made one of the best half combinations in the game since Moses made the switch from the Wests Tigers to the Eels mid-season.

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Moses has ten try assists in his short time at the Eels, while Norman also has ten for the season. Their kicking game, whether clearing or attacking has been nothing short of phenomenal and they have combined in the middle third of the field well.

Playing on the back of their forwards, they have looked dangerous.

They find themselves in a similar position to the Cowboys, in that they should find scoring points easier this weekend. Melbourne’s defensive structure is second to none, so Moses and Norman should not only enjoy, but be able to use the extra space on offer and rack up some points.

Michael Morgan needs to inspire more points, but he must receive help to do it
There’s no question the Cowboys struggled on the attack last week. They scored two tries, one which came from penalties, then a defensive misread and still took a cracking cut-out ball for Kyle Feldt to score.

The second was Taumalolo’s barge over effort from five metres out, where he dragged 400 kilograms worth of defenders to the try line from a standing start.

So, it’s fair to say the Cowboys need to improve in the attacking department. Full credit to the Sharks, their goal line defence was sensational, but what we learned last week is Michael Morgan can’t do it all.

Every time the Cowboys went on the attack, it felt predictable. Give the ball to Morgan and see what he can produce, seemed to be the mantra. That’s not going to cut it without a lot of luck, and stretching the Eels’ defence will be key to winning.

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For that reason, Lachlan Coote, Te Maire Martin and Jake Granville must get involved. Granville is an explosive dummy half, but seemed to lack confidence last week, making simple errors. Martin meanwhile, looks to be struggling with a leg injury and failed to have enough involvement, while Coote was very quiet during the first half before helping with the kicking game during the second.

If the trio doesn’t become heavily involved, the Cowboys don’t stand a chance.

Michael Morgan North Queensland Cowboys NRL Rugby League 2017

(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)

Does playing 90 minutes help or hinder the Cowboys?
While you’d normally argue playing the extra ten minutes leaves a team fatigued and not able to get back up last week, it might work in the complete opposite way for the Cowboys.

The field goal in golden point, the unexpected nature of the win and their fighting spirit throughout may well actually give the Cowboys a much-needed confidence boost. They looked a team down on backing themselves coming into the finals, but if they can take last week’s win and run with it, they will be much more dangerous in attack.

On the other hand, the Eels may actually lose some momentum. They played well in Melbourne, but a loss does funny things to a footy team at this stage of the season.

So, who’s going to win?
Call me crazy, but I can see an upset here. The Cowboys just fight, fight and then fight some more. They were written off from all quarters last week, but found a way to drag themselves across the line in golden point.

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If that doesn’t give a team confidence then nothing will. They won’t have quite as much trouble breaking the Eels’ line, and that might be the difference here.

Parramatta are a good footy team, don’t get me wrong, but they could well crack against a team with plenty of finals experience over the last couple of seasons, even if they are without their best two players.

I tipped the Eels to bounce out in straight sets, originally thinking they would be up against the Sharks. Based on the evidence the Cowboys’ presented last week, they can play a similar game, so I’m not changing my line of thinking.

Prediction: Cowboys by 2.

Key game information: Parramatta Eels vs North Queensland Cowboys NRL semi-final

Kick-off: 7:40pm (AEST)
Venue: ANZ Stadium, Sydney
TV: Live, Fox League 502 and Nine Network
Online: Live, Foxtel app, Foxtel now and NRL live pass
Betting: Eels $1.26, Cowboys $3.25
Overall record: Played 37, Cowboys 19, Eels 17, drawn 1
Last meeting: 2017, Round 14 – Cowboys 32 defeat Eels 6
Last five: Cowboys 3, Eels 2
Record in finals: Played 1, Cowbos 1, Eels 0
Record at venue: Played 1, Cowboys 1, Eels 0
Referees: Matt Cecchin and Ben Cummins

Parramatta Eels
1. Will Smith
2. Semi Radradra
3. Michael Jennings
4. Brad Takairangi
5. Kirisome Auva’a
6. Corey Norman
7. Mitchell Moses
8. Daniel Alvaro
9. Cameron King
10. Tim Mannah
11. Manu Ma’u
12. Tepai Moeroa
13. Nathan Brown
Interchange
14. Beau Scott
15. Kenny Edwards
16. Siosaia Vave
17. Suaia Matagi
Reserves
18. Kaysa Pritchard
19. Peni Terepo
20. David Gower
21. Josh Hoffman

North Queensland Cowboys
1. Lachlan Coote
2. Kyle Feldt
3. Javid Bowen
4. Kane Linnett
5. Antonio Winterstein
6. Te Maire Martin
7. Michael Morgan
8. John Asiata
9. Jake Granville
10. Scott Bolton
11. Gavin Cooper
12. Ethan Lowe
13. Jason Taumalolo
Interchange
14. Ben Hampton
15. Coen Hess
16. Corey Jensen
17. Shaun Fensom
Reserves
18. Ray Thompson
19. Justin O’Neill
20. Braeden Uele
21. Patrick Mago

Don’t forget The Roar will carry live coverage and highlights of every NRL finals match.

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