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Well, here we are. Three games to go, and the next two tell us who plays in the big dance. There are clear favourites, but if the finals have told us anything, it’s that upsets are going to happen.
Here’s The Roar’s NRL expert tipping panel to give you their view.
It’s almost sad when you reach this point of the season, knowing there are three games to go – almost. They are the three biggest games, and with the Rugby League World Cup just around the corner, our great game won’t be far away from the platter of sport anyway.
Anyway, back to the action and we are faced with the question – how are the North Queensland Cowboys still kicking?
They weren’t supposed to make the finals – but they did that.
Then they were supposed to be cannon fodder for the Sharks – but what do you know, they were anything but, winning in extra time.
Surely the Eels would let the Cowboys know their time in the sun without Johnathan Thurston was up? Nope. Absolutely not. The Cowboys machine just keeps on kicking.
They will face the Sydney Roosters on Saturday night for a spot in the grand final. For a team that snuck into the finals when they weren’t supposed to be there because of injuries, that’s damn impressive.
In more positive news for the Cowboys, Queensland and Australian enforcer Matt Scott has been named in the reserves as a long shot at playing, just six months after picking up a serious ACL injury.
The Roosters have just had a week off, and will have home ground advantage. The script says they are supposed to win, but as we full well know, things don’t go to script.
Their last performance, the one that earned them a week off, was scrappy as they got over Brisbane. It won the match, but it won’t be good enough on repeat if the Cowboys turn up to play.
Like the Roosters, the Melbourne Storm juggernaut also had a week off after their narrow win over the Eels in the qualifying finals. It wasn’t their most impressive performance but should serve as a wake-up call for the runaway premiership favourites.
They will host the Broncos on Friday. As mentioned, the Broncos were scrappy at best against the Roosters, but stronger against the Panthers last week.
Still, beating the Panthers at home in front of 40,000, compared to making a trip south and beating the Storm – very different challenges.
Last week, everyone got one – apart from yours truly, because yep, I was foolish (or brave) enough to tip the Cowboys.
Don’t forget that on the form below, you can put your own tips in on behalf of The Crowd. We will have the results at 4pm (AEST) on Friday, so be sure to have them in before then. Who knows, The Crowd might prove themselves to be better than the experts.
Tips: Storm, Roosters
1st preliminary final: Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos
Storm. Broncos just got away with it against the Panthers. They are beaten up, have a makeshift hooker and a captain with a dodgy hamstring. Add to that, they are up against a full strength, rested, purple horde who are playing at home. The Broncos have reached the end of the line.
2nd preliminary final: Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys
Roosters. I’m loathe to tip against the Cowboys because they keep finding a way to win, or at least not lose. And the Roosters really know how to keep games close. But, I dare say, the dream ends here for the boys from Townsville.
Tips:Storm, Roosters
1st preliminary final: Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos
Storm. Little chance of an upset here. Darius Boyd back from injury is a big in for the Broncos, but it won’t be enough. The Storm have had the Broncos’ measure in recent years and with all of their stars on deck and playing at home it’s going to be too much for the opposition to handle.
The Storm may have only just beaten the Eels in week one of the finals, but the closeness of the result will have been good for them because it will have alerted them to a few things they needed to work on. The Broncos didn’t have an awful lot to spare in beating the Panthers last week. They hang in there, but they won’t stop the Storm from racking up a decent tally. The Storm’s defence will do the rest.
2nd preliminary final: Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys
Roosters. They had better be on their game, but they’ll know that because coach Trent Robinson will have made a point of how the Cowboys are playing a disciplined and structured game and remaining committed throughout.
It’s the Roosters who have been drifting in and out of games. More often than not they get away with it because they’ve got enough firepower to score points in a hurry, but there have been times when they have butchered games. They nearly did it again in week one of the finals against the Broncos.
If the Roosters are switched on and don’t go to sleep at a critical stage of the game they will win. But if they nod off the Cowboys will pounce and then it will be game on.
Tips: Storm, Cowboys
1st preliminary final: Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos
Storm. So many people have called the Cowboys brave, but the Broncos were too – down to one man on the bench last week. Rumour has it Darius Boyd and Tevita Pantai Junior are back this week which will boost the Broncos, but we know that the Storm are the in-form team in the competition. I see the Storm winning this game but it will be closer than what people think.
2nd preliminary final: Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys
Cowboys. I’m tipping an upset here and also because it makes my pain easier to swallow if the Eels are beaten by a team that makes the Grand Final.
We talk about how brave the Cowboys have been but Michael Morgan is in the best form of his career, Jason Taumololo is one of the best forwards in the world and along with Ethan Lowe, Kyle Feldt and Lachlan Coote the Cowboys are a force. Matt Scott is potentially set to make his return this week too. Game on.
Tips: Storm, Cowboys
1st preliminary final: Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos
Storm. Stopping this juggernaut at home? Yeah, good luck. Melbourne are living out what you would have to describe as a fairy-tale for their departing hero Cooper Cronk.
They have barely looked challenged all year. Let’s be honest, the Eels took the fight to them, but were never getting over the line in Melbourne. It’s the impossible task in rugby league to end all impossible tasks.
Fresh off a week off, facing a Broncos side who really haven’t done a great deal of good so far in the finals, even with their win over Penrith last week, it could get a little ugly in the second half – especially if the Broncos’ defence collapses again as it tends to do.
Watch for Cronk and Cameron Munster to combine for a blinder in the halves, while Billy Slater proves his match-winning ability – again.
2nd preliminary final: Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys
Cowboys. Go on, call me a bandwagoner. The story of the season isn’t Cronk. It’ll be the Cowboys if they manage to get over the Roosters in Sydney, winning again when everyone has all but written them off.
I was guilty of it heading into the finals. I was certain they were making up the numbers. No one gave them the script about not winning without Thurston though. Michael Morgan has been phenomenal, the other JT has ran for more metres than some front row combinations combined, and Lachlan Coote has picked up his game.
Their grit and determination in defence, as well as an ability to play 80 minutes, is second to none.
The Roosters, on the other hand, have faded in and out of games badly. They might be coming off a week off, but I’m not sure that will do them a great deal of good. It might take them a while to click, and if their defence isn’t at the same level as the Sharks was in the first week, they won’t win.
It’s not either. I’m tipping the Cowboys. Here’s to hoping Papua New Guinea get up in the Queensland Cup and we have two absolute stories to yarn about on grand final day!
| Finals Wk 3 | Tim | Greg | Mary | Scott | The Crowd |
| STO v BRO | STO | STO | STO | STO | STO |
| ROO v COW | ROO | ROO | COW | COW | COW |
| Last week | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Total | 110 | 128 | 120 | 122 | 133 |
Now it’s your turn to try and beat the experts. Using the form below, select your tips for the weekend ahead and we will have the results at 4pm (AEST) on Friday afternoon.