Group 1 Golden Rose: Preview and tips

Cameron Rose Columnist

By Cameron Rose, Cameron Rose is a Roar Expert

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    The Golden Rose has become the marquee race of the Sydney spring carnival, which is quite the achievement given it has been a Group 1 for less than a decade.

    None of the last four winners were seen after their three-year-old season, as they were all whisked off to stud. Zoustar went on to win the Coolmore Stud Stakes and Hallowed Crown the Randwick Guineas, while Exosphere and Astern came to VRC Derby day as hot favourites but flopped (not unusual for Godolphin horses in Melbourne).

    Menari is the powerfully built boom colt of the season, and will take his place as hot favourite accordingly.

    He dominated the Run to the Rose camped behind the leader Perast, and gave nothing else a chance in recording a comfortable win. He looks twice as big as any other horse in his races, and his lovely strong action is always going to take some beating.

    Pariah ran second to Menari on that day, but if you switch the runs you probably swap results. The two colts ran almost identical sectionals for the last 200m, 400m and 600m, and position in running was the deciding factor on the day.

    Given Menari has drawn 11 and Pariah has drawn 12, it will be fascinating to see what actions Josh Parr and Blake Shinn take in the early stages. These two do look the standouts, at least of the Sydney colts form, and it’s hard to see any that finished behind them in the Run to the Rose beating both.

    The Stan Fox Stakes, won by Gold Standard, is the other key lead up to the Golden Rose. While the Run to the Rose was over 1200m, the Stan Fox is over 1500m, so the runners in it have had good grounding for this 1400m race.

    Similar to Menari on the same day, Gold Standard sat on the speed behind The Mission, who made an early race move to take the lead, and was simply too good for his rivals. He’s already had four runs this prep, and there will be no fitter horse in the race. Tommy Berry will certainly push forward from barrier ten on him.

    Dracarys beat Gold Standard in the Up andamp; Coming Stakes a month ago, and hasn’t been seen since. He won fair and square that day, in a battle down the straight, and the two of them cleared away from the others. He can settle in a midfield position and will need to get a clean run at them from barrier one.

    Assimilate claimed the scalp of Dracarys back in July, and is another that looks a nice each-way play as the value of the race. He’ll go back to the tail and have the last crack at them, and if the two favourites get unlucky or caught in a speed battle, he will be the one coming over the top.

    Two fillies are in the race, Formality and Champagne Cuddles. They’ve met twice this prep with Formality holding a 2-0 lead, albeit by only a combined half length.

    Formality will go forward from a wide barrier, while Champagne Cuddles is best ridden colder from a middle gate. Both can provide more than nuisance value if things go their way.

    Merchant Navy isn’t the lone Victorian in the field, given Formality is trained out of Euroa by team Hayes, but he is the only horse to have done his racing in Melbourne in the lead up.

    He hasn’t done a thing wrong in his career to date, winning four from four, but the query remains about the quality of horse he’s been beating. He’s versatile, and should have no excuses from an inside draw, with Mark Zahra in hot enough form to give him every chance.

    There are a handful of horses that can be prominent, and there is a clear case for a hot early tempo. Whichever horse wins this race, the jockey will have ridden a peach to get his mount across the line first.

    Selections: 1.Pariah 2.Menari 3.Assimilate 4.Champagne Cuddles

    The Golden Pendant is the main support race on the Golden Rose card, with Sydney’s best sprinter-miler mares taking each other on over 1400m.

    Seven of the 11 runners come through the Sheraco, which was won by a horse that isn’t here, Ravi.

    About a length covered five of the mares that ran in that race and are in this event – Daysee Doom, Magic Alibi, Bonny O’Reilly, Omei Sword, and Danish Twist.

    Omei Sword is always in the market and usually favourite, but hasn’t won for over a year. It’s time for her to deliver without excuses.

    Daysee Doom was the obvious eye-catcher from the Sheraco from quieter ride than usual. She may do the same again from a wide barrier and hope for a genuine tempo.

    Bonny O’Reilly is a good horse with a superior winning record, and she should enjoy a much softer time of it this time around from a cosy barrier. Her honesty will ensure she’s right there when the race is being won.

    Danish Twist is a long time between drinks for a horse in single figures, and her record at Rosehill doesn’t inspire confidence.

    Dixie Blossoms is the best horse in the race, and is most suited under the set weights penalties format. She has shown her versatility in the past, and can sit anywhere in the run, but if ridden with cover can unleash a devastating sprint.

    This will be another race where early tactics are key, and a horse like Sweet Redemption could sneak away with the race if she’s allowed to dictate in front.

    Selections: 1.Daysee Doom 2.Dixie Blossoms 3.Omei Sword 4.Bonny O’Reilly

    Cameron Rose
    Cameron Rose

    Cameron Rose is a born and bred Melbournian, raised on a regime of AFL, cricket and horse racing. He likes people who agree with him but loves those that don't, for there's nothing better than a roaring debate. He tweets from @camtherose.

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    The Crowd Says (25)

    • September 22nd 2017 @ 9:06am
      Addington said | September 22nd 2017 @ 9:06am | ! Report

      Cameron how on earth are you tipping Pariah to turn the tables on the big boy ?
      He came off Menari’s back last time and was calling for his mother with 100mtrs ….it just aint happening as Menari will eat 1400 mtrs.
      Happy punting.

      • Columnist

        September 22nd 2017 @ 9:55am
        Cameron Rose said | September 22nd 2017 @ 9:55am | ! Report

        I’m just not someone that can step into $2, and would prefer to put value on top. And I don’t see that much between them based on last run. That said, I reckon I’ll be backing Assimilate the more I think about it, would rather chase some value.

        • September 22nd 2017 @ 11:14am
          TonyR said | September 22nd 2017 @ 11:14am | ! Report

          Cameron, I to am a Assimilate fan but no one I talk to will back me. They think he has no show, but to me he has plenty of upside. Like you say he will be finishing over the top as a assume the pace will be on?

          • Columnist

            September 22nd 2017 @ 1:24pm
            Cameron Rose said | September 22nd 2017 @ 1:24pm | ! Report

            I’m with you Tony. The more I look at it, the more pace I see. These big races are usually high pressure, and a lot of Golden Rose winners come from the back. With the two favourites drawn so badly, I have to look for value, and Assimilate ticks the boxes.

            • September 22nd 2017 @ 4:24pm
              Haradasun said | September 22nd 2017 @ 4:24pm | ! Report

              Love your enthusiasm for Pariah. But there are lengths between menari and Pariah. Only luck in the running can turn the tables here. Menari is a $1.50 chance so he is still value for mine!

              • Columnist

                September 22nd 2017 @ 9:43pm
                Cameron Rose said | September 22nd 2017 @ 9:43pm | ! Report

                That’s the spirit!

        • September 22nd 2017 @ 11:57am
          Razzar said | September 22nd 2017 @ 11:57am | ! Report

          Yes Cam, Menari is pretty much screwed down now. But probly will improve off his last win.
          I noticed Racenet tipsters haven’t got him in their first four… and the world must be flat as well.

          Caufield looks a day of competitive racing.

          The 2000 metre Foundation Cup, looks a race where the map here, hits you in the face.

          Gallante looks to lead, with Stampede settling handy, and Tally should get lovely sit.

          Stampede just looks to get a lovely run, is in prime form, off the Caufield bends should be very hard to run down. $3 rating

          Tally should be fit now, gets a very likely soft run, this is his right class, likely handy stalker here. $6 rating

          Big Duke will get back, often that’s never that good at this track, luck in running required. $9 rating

          Amelie’s Star should’ve won last start. Well her race pattern rarely helps her cause, settling back, clear air and a spot of luck is often required. She’s going beautifully, $7 rating.

          Good luck punters.

          • Columnist

            September 22nd 2017 @ 1:26pm
            Cameron Rose said | September 22nd 2017 @ 1:26pm | ! Report

            Haha, nice line about Racenet.

            Lots of good chances in the Naturalism. I’m going with Harlem at around the $10 mark. Unfortunately has both barrier one and Dunn on board, but I’d rather be on a run too early than a run too late. Hoping he has little luck again, and I can have a real go in something like the Herbert Power, or the Bart Cummings.

            • September 24th 2017 @ 6:34pm
              Razzar said | September 24th 2017 @ 6:34pm | ! Report

              You got on that run early Cam, well done on Hardern. Not to mention the tri in the Mares race in Sydney. Nice to be cashed up going forward. Well done. Things now really start to warm up, well racing wise, in Melb. Will await your wise prognostications next week.

        • September 22nd 2017 @ 7:06pm
          Kangajets said | September 22nd 2017 @ 7:06pm | ! Report

          Cameron

          If menari doesn’t win , does that make his trainer the worst in the comp eg yr afl articles lately
          Or if u get yr tips wrong , does that make u the worst racing journo in the media ???

          Bet u don’t answer

          • Columnist

            September 22nd 2017 @ 9:38pm
            Cameron Rose said | September 22nd 2017 @ 9:38pm | ! Report

            Nice to see you again Kanga.

            Sorry, I just need some clarification. Do you mean worst in Australia, or globally? And are we talking historically, or just present day?

            • September 23rd 2017 @ 6:31am
              monday QB said | September 23rd 2017 @ 6:31am | ! Report

              love it!

            • September 23rd 2017 @ 7:19am
              Kangajets said | September 23rd 2017 @ 7:19am | ! Report

              All of the above

    • Roar Guru

      September 22nd 2017 @ 1:42pm
      kv joef said | September 22nd 2017 @ 1:42pm | ! Report

      i can see your reasoning Cam and its valid. Another question is – will this Snitzel x General Nediym cross cope with a v.quick, pressured, 1400m?

      There didn’t look a lot left in the Menari’s tank but as Razzar suggests he may improve but with the main dangers coming from elite stables, they probably improve too.

      i’ve kept Gold Standard in my mix. Really like this bloke. Gets better each time he steps out. thought both Chauffeur and Shogun Sun had good hit-outs behind Menari, at least, for the type of speed this race will produce.

      in short, agree that a Menari at $2 is unders.

      • Columnist

        September 22nd 2017 @ 3:34pm
        Cameron Rose said | September 22nd 2017 @ 3:34pm | ! Report

        I think the market will correct on Menari, and we might even be looking at $2.50 on the day.

        There is more certainty about what Gold Standard will do, which can help, but I’m leaning towards a swooper’s race. But if the jocks also read that, and some of them don’t ride their horses to take a position, the pace could be slack in the first half and then it’s possibly Gold Standard’s to lose. What a race!

        • September 22nd 2017 @ 6:50pm
          Razzar said | September 22nd 2017 @ 6:50pm | ! Report

          It’s interesting we talk of pre race day selections, then race day we absorb the afternoon of how races are panning out. So Cam the bookies aren’t silly, if it’s not playing just right Menari may ease.

          I’m all over Gold Standard, I hope I’ve learnt my lesson not having at least a saver on Humidor last week.

          But Gold Standard reminds me of Fawkner; able to muster a forward position, then have plenty left, on straightening.
          But I do think the tempo will be very good, possibly most in pairs right back to rear. That should set up, your “What a Race” Senario.

        • Roar Guru

          September 22nd 2017 @ 7:37pm
          kv joef said | September 22nd 2017 @ 7:37pm | ! Report

          The NSW handicaping panel seem to think Gold standard is OK … they have bumped him 18pts from his last 2 starts. Menari went up 12pts from his last two wins. Interestingly, Merchant Navy has jumped 15pts so the OHR figure suggests he will measure up.

          Good speed near the rails – Formality out in the carpark and Menari drawn on the outside of G.Standard and a couple of hundred metres to the first turn — wonder how Tommy Berry will play it? i doubt whether he will give Josh any easy yards 🙂 . What do our AFL fans call it … ‘tagging’ …

          And after the pace is sorted, then watch the flotilla storming from the back.

          Yep … what a race!

          • Roar Guru

            September 23rd 2017 @ 8:57am
            Nathan Absalom said | September 23rd 2017 @ 8:57am | ! Report

            I do love a Waterhouse horse dropping back in distance as well, particularly as she likes to have them ridden forward on the speed when she does drop them back. I think at the price Gold Standard is definitely worth a go, she’ll have him rock-hard fit for the run. It’s a bit different this year with the Golden Rose pushed back later into the year after the Stan Fox, but if anything I think it makes for a better race and should be another cracker this year.

            While I’m on Waterhouse horses, I see she’s given Dark eyes three trials leading into this. First-up form is OK, needs to be at his best to be in it really but $23 each-way is worth a small wager.

            Finally, something at odds at Caulfield is Legless Veuve. In her two genuine first-up runs (here’s a tip, when doing first-up form ignore the run on debut, it’s really deceiving and negatively influences the price) she’s beaten some really good horses such as Hey Doc and Derryn and also decent horses like Morton’s Fork and Classic Diva. Have a quinella with the flying Missrock as well, and good luck all for a great day’s racing!

    • September 22nd 2017 @ 7:23pm
      michael steel said | September 22nd 2017 @ 7:23pm | ! Report

      As a tipster, I stink. However in Brisbane ( Ipswich) Race 7 , I am making a selection. Just to put the kiss of death on this horse.
      MY MAISIE no.2 and drawn barrier 9.
      The race is 1200 metres and 1200 is as far as MY MAYSIE will go.
      He will lead and will be leading around the home turn
      Tiffany Brooker is the jockey and she is only second to Jeff Lloyd this year.
      He won his last start in Toowoomba.
      Is currently 25/1 but is also the 100 rater in the Courier Mail.
      I’ll be happy with him running a place at $7.00

      • September 25th 2017 @ 8:24am
        michael steel said | September 25th 2017 @ 8:24am | ! Report

        Well, he lead around the home turn. Unfortunately he took awhile to cross and hit the lead. BUT, the one thing about leaders is that you always know where they will be and next start he will be good odds.

    • September 22nd 2017 @ 9:04pm
      Johnybulldog said | September 22nd 2017 @ 9:04pm | ! Report

      Great coments,banter gents good luck to all.

    • September 22nd 2017 @ 9:24pm
      no one in particular said | September 22nd 2017 @ 9:24pm | ! Report

      Can’t take 5/4 on a horse that has never placed in a G1, but can’t find anything to beat it

      • September 24th 2017 @ 11:04am
        Addington said | September 24th 2017 @ 11:04am | ! Report

        Well well well …..none of us found the Golden Rose winner so that makes us all terrible judges Cam not just you hahaha!
        The crowning glory for the weekend was that Sportsbet gave us $6.00 Gingernuts in the Hastings Group 1 mile and he started $2.80 !! …..you have to love Sportsbet ….champion bookmakers.

        • September 24th 2017 @ 3:00pm
          no one in particular said | September 24th 2017 @ 3:00pm | ! Report

          Sportsbet are putting up dodgy prices as the TAB are now copying their openers. Once the TAB opens the Sportsbet bookies are all jumping on, then turning their price to what it should be. It’s why there has been so many (relative) “plunges” the past 6-8 weeks

    • Roar Rookie

      September 24th 2017 @ 5:15pm
      Tomas Kelly said | September 24th 2017 @ 5:15pm | ! Report

      Well done on the trifecta in the Golden Pendant mate.. in order too if you don’t mind!!

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