And then there were four.

The Storm and Broncos face off in the first preliminary final with the Purple Horde massive favourites. They’re at home and in form, it’s Cooper Cronk’s last game in front of the Purple People, and maybe Billy Slater’s too.

Coming to try and spoil the party are the battered and bruised Broncos. Captain Darius Boyd returns with a hamstring which has great question marks on it. Corey Oates has somehow cleared his concussion test and Tevita Pangai Junior returns to add some drive to the pack.

But there is no Korbin Sims and no Andrew McCullough. Is the Broncos pack up to the task?

This will be the Storm’s ninth preliminary final from the last 12 seasons. They’ve won six of them. The Broncos have played four preliminary finals over the same period, winning two (2006, 2015).

How they score and concede

I’ve kept all of the scores from every match this season and when they were scored, by whom, against whom. I can now properly compare both sides scoring and conceding patterns against the relevant cohorts: the Storm and the Broncos playing top four sides.

Storm attack/Broncos defence

Houston, we have a problem. And by Houston, I mean Brisbane, and by we, I mean the Broncos.

From the 11th to the 30th minute, the Storm could cut loose. The Broncos defence in the second ten-minute period has been poor this season, and from the 21st to the 30th minute is when the Storm’s attack is at its most dangerous. The last ten minutes of the game should also see the Storm put on some points.

Broncos attack/Storm defence

The Storm’s most vulnerable period is from the 21st to the 30th minute, but it still isn’t really that vulnerable. The Broncos like to start the match with points and they’ll need to if they want to be in this. If they are still in it at that stage, in the last ten minutes they could come home with a wet sail.

Statistically predicted score: 23.7–18.4 Storm

Storm by only five seems a little close but the stats are what they are!

Team averages per game 2017

So this week we are going to start comparing sides’ attacking characteristics directly against their opponents’ corresponding defensive characteristics. This should give us a better idea of where the advantages are.

Storm attack versus Broncos defence

Broncos attack versus Storm defence

How the team stats compare:
• The Storm average one more line break.
• The Broncos are likely to miss one more tackle than the Storm.
• The Storm score 0.6 more tries per game than the Broncos.
• The Broncos should make 0.65 more errors than the Storm.
• Both sides will make almost exactly the same metres, get the same penalties and force the same amount of drop-outs.

The upshot:
Basically, there is bugger all between these two sides when the team stats are compared. This may be the reason the predicted score has the Storm only winning by five.

Player stats: defence

The Storm have four players who make 30+ tackles a game. The Broncos, in the absence of Korbin Sims and Andrew McCullough, only have two: Matt Gillet and Josh McGuire. 30+ tacklers are what holds defensive lines together.

The Storm’s worst missed tackler is Tohu Harris with an average of 2.3 misses a game (and a missed tackle ratio of 7.4 per cent).

Conversely, the Broncos have three players averaging over three missed tackles a game. Gillett has a missed tackle ratio of ten per cent – possibly because he’s trying to cover for the defensive inadequacies of Ben Hunt, Anthony Milford and Kodi Nikorima. Hunt misses 15 per cent of the tackles he attempts.

At hooker, against the Storm, that is a massive liability. Massive.

Both Tautau Moga and Nelson Asofa-Solomona get a bit of rage and concede penalties but they are the worst in this game and both only slightly move the needle on the Maloney Scale.

Look at the comparative errors. Mostly they are the outside backs who a) make mistakes under the high ball or b) make errors in the motion of trying to score or break the line.

Then there are the playmakers who make lots of errors by virtue of handling the ball lots. Milford is the third worst for errors in this game. Now, look at Cronk. Not only are his missed tackles the best of any half in the NRL this year, his errors are paltry. The Storm will really miss their crooked-nosed half next year. He’s a gun.

Player stats: attack

You know what surprises me here? Will Chambers doesn’t feature at all in the Storm’s best attacking stats. For mine, he has been the best centre in the game this year, in attack and defence. The stats don’t support that though.

And while we’re on oddities: Cameron Munster has only scored one try in 2017. Weird, huh?

What he does do is put players away. 11 try assists and 17 line break assists are sensational stats.

(AAP Image/David Mariuz)

What these stats do show is that 37.4 per cent of the Storm’s tries are scored by their wingers. Suliasi Vunivalu and Josh Addo-Carr have been superb this season on opposite sides of the field. Similarly, James Roberts and Corey Oates have been getting good results try-wise for the Broncos on opposing flanks.

The Storm have four great creators: Cronk, Munster, Billy Slater and Cameron Smith. While the Broncos also have four creators, Milford is clearly the go-to man. You can bet Craig Bellamy has plans in place to target ‘Milf.’ If the Broncos are to win, Milford must be at the top of his game and so must Hunt.

Basically, the Broncos have some awesome attacking talent. The Storm just have more.

And on Corey Oates, if he plays and scores a try he will be the first player since the great Bob McCarty in 1976 to score a try in seven consecutive finals.

The danger men

Cameron Munster: This kid has a real look in his eye. He is very good and he knows it. He’s got some lip too, but he’s got strength and fire to back it up. He follows in the well-worn Storm tradition of having his own distinct name. Within the confines of Bellamy Ball, this bloke wants to announce himself as the future of the Storm’s attack.

Vunivalu and Addo-Carr: The form of the Storm wingers is irrepressible. If you want to beat Melbourne, they must be stopped. Good luck with that.

Billy Slater: Does this guy know he’s 34 and meant to be past it? I doubt it. Billy the Kid is as good as ever. He wants to win another grand final badly. How do you stop him?

Anthony Milford: Gee, there is a lot of pressure on this bloke. He really carries the weight of his side’s hopes on his shoulders. Melbourne will target absolute hellfire at him. However, there is real talent in him and this might just be his moment to really announce himself.

Darius Boyd: No-one doubts Boyd’s attacking talent and he’s great at the back to. His return – if he really is fit – is a real shot in the arm for Brisbane.

Ben Hunt: Yeah, you heard me. Ben Hunt. Miles out of position at hooker, having to tackle in the middle at the business end of the season, the Dragons-bound half doesn’t have time to think too much. He’s just got to rely on instincts. While his tackling might be suspect, his instincts are very good. A bit of luck goes his way and anything is possible.

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

The History

Overall
This will be the 43rd game between these two sides since Melbourne entered the league in 1998. The Storm have played the Broncos more than any other side in their history.

The record currently stands as follows: Storm 28 wins, Broncos 13 wins, one draw. That means Melbourne win two-thirds of the time. That’s been done with an average score of 24.6–16.5.

Of the last 30 games played between the sides – back to the qualifying final in 2004 – the Storm have won 24 of them (80 per cent). That match is particularly significant as it was the first game against the Broncos that all three of Cronk, Slater and Smith featured together.

The last ten
Continuing with the 80 per cent theme, the Storm have won eight of the last ten between the two sides.

At this venue
Melbourne have won five of the eight games between the sides at this ground. However, the Broncos have won two of the last three games at AAMI Park, so there is some hope for the Brisbane faithful there.

Finals
This will be the eighth final between these sides but the Storm have only won five (62.5 per cent) this time. However, the last time the Broncos beat the Storm in a final was in the final game of the 2006 season.

Fun fact: they haven’t met in a final since 2009. That was also one of the two occasions that they met in preliminary finals (the other was the Storm’s inaugural season in 1998).

Sam Thaiday and Alex Glenn are the Broncos who remain from that 2009 prelim. For the Storm, Slater, Chambers, Cronk and Smith are backing up. The Storm won 40-10.

Form
The Storm are on an eight-game winning streak, the biggest of 2017 to date. Their last loss was to the Eels during Origin period and Smith, Cronk, Glasby, Chambers and Slater were out.

In those eight games, they have scored 260 points and conceded just 81. That’s an average score of 26-10. At home, that average score is 34-9. That’s some seriously good form.

It’s worth noting, though, that four of those eight wins came against sides who did not finish in the top eight. But their average score against top eight sides in that run of wins was 25-8.6 – so still pretty convincing.

The Broncos have won seven of their last ten games. However, four of those wins came over sides who didn’t finish in the top eight. Over those ten games, they have scored 289 points and conceded 176 (28.9-17.6 avg score). Away from home, it is 28.8-16.8, but the matches against the Titans and Knights are included in that group.

The Storm’s overall record
This will be Melbourne’s 526th game in the NRL. They’ve got a winning percentage of 64.4 per cent.

It will be their 42nd final in their 20 seasons. They have a 62 per cent winning record in finals.

They have been in nine of the last ten finals series. The only one they missed was 2010 following the salary cap scandal.

The Broncos’ overall record
This will be Brisbane’s 758th game since joining the competition in 1988. They have a 61.75 per cent overall win ratio overall.

They’ve played 57 finals matches with a winning ratio of 55.3 per cent.

They have only missed the finals four times in their 30-year history (1988, 1991, 2010, 2013). They have featured in eight of the last ten finals series.

Referees

Matt Cecchin, Ben Cummins

In partnership
This is the second game these two have done together this year. Last week’s Eels-Cowboys game was the first. The 4-2 penalty count was the lowest either have been involved in this year.

Cecchin’s average of 14.6 penalties awarded per game in 2017 has plummeted in the finals to just seven, less than 50 per cent of his usual. This may be partially – but not completely – due to the influence of Ben Cummins, whose average penalties per game in 2017 is 11.8.

These two ran the 2016 grand final together. The penalty count was 5-3, so don’t expect too many penalties in this game.

Cecchin and Cummins did the 2015 preliminary final between the Storm and the Cowboys when the Storm got flogged. This will be the fourth final these two have done together.

(AAP Image/David Moir)

Finals
Matt Cecchin has done 20 finals matches in total. The home side has won 12 (60 per cent).

There have been five Storm games, of which Melbourne has won just two. He’s done three Broncos finals and the lads from Brisbane have won just one.

Ben Cummins has done 28 finals games. The home sides have won 16 (57 per cent). His six Storm finals have been split 3-3.

Cummins has done four Brisbane finals with the games again evenly split at two apiece.

Individual records
This is only the second time Matt Cecchin has run a match between these sides. The first was in Round 24 in 2012 at Suncorp Stadium, which the Storm won 19-18. It’s the fifth Storm game he’s run this season – the Storm have won three of four so far.

Cecchin has run 45 Storm games in total. The Storm have won 26 (57.8 per cent).

It’s the fifth Broncos game Cecchin has run in 2017. The Broncos have only won two: against the Sharks away and the Dragons at home.

Cecchin has run 42 Broncos games in total. The Broncos have won 22 (52.4 per cent).

This will be the fourth game between these two sides that Cummins has done, with the Storm winning the last two in 40+ blowouts in 2009 and 2016.

This will be the 45th Storm game Cummins has done. The Storm have won 31 (70.4 per cent). It will be his 44th Broncos game, of which Brisbane have won 26 (60.5 per cent).

Who is going to win and why

The Storm are going to win because their defence is the best in the comp and their attack is the best in the comp. They’re at home and really want to make amends for last year’s grand final loss.

Trying to stop them is a side that arrives beaten up and makeshift. I just can’t see the Broncos getting close with so much defensive frailty for the Storm to prey on. If the Storm get a few tries early, this could be a blowout.

Prediction: Storm 13+