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Can the Cowboys’ fairy tale continue? They found a way not to lose against the Sharks and then fair and square beat the Eels, whose only tries – apart from Michael Jennings’ 80th-minute consolation – were against the run of play. Now Justin O’Neill is back, and maybe even Matt Scott.
But even then, what chance do they have against the Roosters – with all their finals experience – on their home soil?
How they score and concede
I’ve kept all of the scores from every match this season and when they were scored, by whom, against whom. I can now properly compare both sides scoring and conceding patterns against the relevant cohorts: the Roosters playing top-eight sides at home, the Cowboys playing top-four sides away.
Roosters attack/Cowboys defence
| 0-10 | Nov-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50 | 51-60 | 61-70 | 71-80 | extra | total | |
| Roosters attack | 3 | 4.33 | 1.33 | 3 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 3.67 | 4 | 0.17 | 22.83 |
| Cowboys defence | 2.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 1 | 7.5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.25 | 17.75 |
| Average | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 20.3 |
The Roosters may get some early points, and the last ten minutes of the first half also looks promising. While their attack isn’t that great at that stage, the Cowboys’ defence between the 51st and 60th minutes needs to be exploited. The following ten also looks good for tricolours points.
Cowboys attack/Roosters defence
| 0-10 | Nov-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50 | 51-60 | 61-70 | 71-80 | extra | total | |
| Cowboys attack | 3 | 3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | 22.75 |
| Roosters defence | 0.33 | 3.33 | 5 | 2 | 0.67 | 2.67 | 3.67 | 3.67 | 0 | 21.33 |
| Average | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 0.1 | 22 |
If North Queensland are to win, they must score the first half points this comparison suggests. Although the Roosters’ defence isn’t good in the final 20 minutes of the game, the Cowboys don’t usually finish with a flurry of points. Away from home this season Paul Green’s men have led nine times and lost three of them, highlighting this issue.
The Roosters are yet to lose a match at home in 2017 when they’ve been leading at halftime.
Statistically predicted score: 22.00 – 20.3 Cowboys.
Wow… Maybe the fairy tale will continue?
Roosters attack versus Cowboys defence
Team stats – average per game 2017
| Stat | Roosters | Stat | Cowboys | Average |
| Line breaks made | 4.2 | Line breaks conceded | 4.3 | 4.25 |
| Tackle breaks | 28.1 | Missed tackles | 29 | 28.5 |
| Tries scored | 3.6 | Tries conceded | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| Errors forced | 10.1 | Errors | 9.5 | 9.8 |
| Metres made | 1439 | Metres conceded | 1349 | 1394 |
| Penalties awarded | 5.5 | Penalties conceded | 5.9 | 5.7 |
| Drop outs forced | 1.6 | Drop-outs conceded | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Cowboys attack versus Roosters defence
Team stats – average per game 2017
| Stat | Cowboys | Stat | Roosters | Average |
| Line breaks made | 3.5 | Line breaks conceded | 4.3 | 3.9 |
| Tackle breaks | 29.7 | Missed tackles | 24.8 | 27.25 |
| Tries scored | 3.3 | Tries conceded | 3 | 3.15 |
| Errors forced | 11.1 | Errors | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| Metres made | 1444 | Metres conceded | 1431 | 1437 |
| Penalties awarded | 7.6 | Penalties conceded | 6.3 | 7 |
| Drop-outs forced | 2.1 | Drop-outs conceded | 1.6 | 1.85 |
The Roosters:
The Cowboys:
The only real difference here is that North Queensland will get an extra three possessions, which could be enough to separate the sides too.
Player stats defence
| Stat | Roosters | Cowboys |
| Tackles made | Jake Friend – 52 Aidan Guerra – 32 Jared Waerea-Hargreaves – 32 Boyd Cordner – 31 |
Scott Bolton – 32 Jake Granville – 32 Gavin Cooper – 31 Ethan Lowe – 30 Jason Taumalolo – 28 |
| Missed tackles | Dylan Napa – 2.6 Jake Friend – 2.5 Luke Keary – 2.3 Mitchell Pearce – 2.0 |
Ethan Lowe – 3.3 Jake Granville – 2.5 Michael Morgan – 2.5 Te Maire Martin – 2.2 |
| Penalties conceded | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves – 29 Mitchell Pearce – 15 Jake Friend – 12 Latrell Mitchell – 11 |
Jake Granville – 17 Kyle Feldt – 13 Coen Hess – 13 Michael Morgan – 14 Kane Linnett – 12 |
| Errors | Latrell Mitchell – 32 Luke Keary – 28 Blake Ferguson – 26 Daniel Tupou – 23 Mitchell Pearce – 24 Daniel Tupou – 23 |
Kyle Feldt – 33 Lachlan Coote – 26 Lachlan Coote – 26 |
There are some very good defenders here. Jake Friend’s massive 52 a game leads the way; however, the Cowboys have five tacklers with big numbers, with only Ethan Lowe suspect among them.
There is nothing suspect whatsoever about the Sydenysiders’ main tacklers. Dylan Napa can miss a few, and while their halves’ missed tackle rates aren’t as good as Cooper Cronk’s, they are still pretty good. Although the same can be said of Morgan and Te Maire Martin.
There are no turnstiles in this game.
There is a bad penalty-conceder, though. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves is all but guaranteed to give away a penalty, maybe two. He registers an eight on the Maloney Scale, which could be a deciding factor.
Kyle Feldt can sure score some pressure tries, but he also drops a fair bit of ball. Latrell Mitchell smashed over the top of Jimmy Roberts to get his side into this prelim; however, he’s got a lot of errors in him. A very large man-child, he doesn’t quite yet have the composure to control his incredible talent, and his performance could well be the key.
Player stats attack
| Stat | Roosters | Cowboys |
| Tackle breaks | Latrell Mitchell – 4.0 Blake Ferguson – 3.2 Michael Gordon – 2.7 Daniel Tupou – 2.6 |
Jason Taumalolo – 4.7 Michael Morgan – 3.4 Kyle Feldt – 3.0 Coen Hess – 2.6 |
| Line breaks | Latrell Mitchell – 16 Daniel Tupou – 12 Blake Ferguson – 12 |
Coen Hess – 12 Kyle Feldt – 11 Michael Morgan – 10 |
| Metres gained | Boyd Cordner – 142 Daniel Tupou – 133 Blake Ferguson – 129 Jared Waerea-Hargreaves – 125 |
Jason Taumalolo – 191 Scott Bolton – 124 Matt Scott – 123 Kyle Feldt – 109 |
| Tries scored | Latrell Mitchell – 14 Daniel Tupou – 11 Blake Ferguson – 10 Luke Keary – 8 |
Kyle Feldt – 14 Coen Hess – 13 Michael Morgan – 11 |
| Try assists | Mitchell Pearce – 14 Luke Keary – 13 Latrell Mitchell – 7 |
Michael Morgan – 16 Lachlan Coote – 8 Jake Granville – 8 |
| Line break assists | Luke Keary – 17 Mitchell Pearce – 15 Latrell Mitchell – 9 |
Lachlan Coote – 12 Michael Morgan – 9 |
| Offloads | Daniel Tupou – 33 Mitchell Pearce – 25 Jared Waerea-Hargreaves – 23 Latrell Mitchell – 20 |
Jason Taumalolo – 29 Michael Morgan – 20 John Asiata – 15 |
Here we see the positive side of Mitchell: lots of tackle breaks, lots of line breaks, lots of tries. The Cowboys need to pressure him into error and put him off his game because if he gets on a roll, the game could be gone.
Speaking of dangerous rolls, is there anything more dangerous in the NRL than a rampaging Jason Taumololo? Those tackle breaks and metres gained are key. He must rampage.
Let’s take a moment to laud Boyd Cordner. I wasn’t sure about him being club captain, let alone the captain of his state. Well, hasn’t the big unit proven me wrong. Not only has he really grown as skipper this year, his stats of 142 metres a match along with 31 tackles are superb. Cordner is superb.
Luke Keary and Mitchell Pearce must be at their creative best. On the other side, Morgan is chief playmaker, but Jake Granville and Lachlan Coote must give him good support.
The danger men
Latrell Mitchell. This guy is a star and a liability all rolled into one. Which side of him dominates here may well determine the result.
Mitchell Pearce. Put up or shut up time, Mitchell. You’ve got to guide your team to victory. Can you?
Blake Ferguson. Rocks or diamonds is what Ferguson serves up. When he’s on he is wonderful, when he’s off he’s quite bad. In the first final, against the Broncos, he showed us his best and his worst.
Michael Morgan. I admit it: I’m a fawning fan of this bloke. His game is sublime, he gives a great interview and his boyish good looks are dreamy. I want Morgan to succeed, but can he? This week’s opposition are very good and they’ll really put the blowtorch on the boy from Ignatius Park College.
Jason Taumololo. The Roosters must blunt him or they’ll struggle. He is worth the price of admission.
Jake Granville. A very handy ball player, he’ll keep the defence on their toes.
The history
This will be the 36th game between these two sides dating back to 1995. The Roosters have won 25, the Cowboys 10.
The Roosters have won six of the last ten between the sides, including four of the last five.
There have been 14 games between these sides at Allianz Stadium. The home side have won all but three; the Queenslanders have failed to beat them here since 2010.
The Roosters have won both finals between these two: 19-16 in the 2004 preliminary final and 31-30 in the 2014 semi-final.
Trent Robinson’s men have won seven of their last ten games, with an aggregate score of 189-198 during that period, and succeeded in the last four straight.
The Cowboys have won five of the last ten. Before their two finals wins, their other three victories were over the Wests Tigers, the Warriors and the Rabbitohs, while they lost to the Roosters, Storm, Panthers, Sharks and Broncos for an aggregate score of 174-184 during that period.
The Roosters’ overall record
This will be the Rooster’s 2176th game since 1908. They have a 52.6 per cent win ratio overall.
They have played 102 finals games with a win ratio of 50.6 per cent and featured in six of the last ten finals series.
The Cowboys’ overall record
This will be the Cowboys 571st game since entering the competition in 1995, they’ve won 244 with a win ratio of 42.75 per cent. Their 27th finals match, they have won 14 with a win ratio of 53.8 per cent.
North Queensland have played in seven of the last ten finals series, including the last six. Before this series, they have also only got past the semis when they have finished in the top four.
Referees: Gerard Sutton, Adam Gee
This will be the fifth game these two have done together this year, with three of the four thus far seeing the away side win. No player has been sinned binned by this team, and they award 12.5 penalties a game – spot on the 2017 NRL average.
This will be Sutton’s 17th finals game. The home side has won 11 times.
This will be Adam Gee’s third finals game, all three having been in 2017.
Sutton has controlled three Roosters finals, the Sydney side winning only one. He has done six Cowboys finals, with them winning four.
Gee has never run a finals game involving either of these sides.
Sutton has only controlled one game between these sides: the Cowboys’ 40-0 win in Round 3 of 2016.
Of the 42 North Queensland games Sutton has controlled, they have only won 19 (42.2 per cent), and lost the last four games he has controlled.
Sutton has controlled 26 Roosters games and the Bondi boys have won 15 of those (57.7 per cent).
Gee has also only done one game between these sides: North Queensland’s 42-10 win in Round 10, 2014.
Gee has controlled seven Roosters games, of which they have won four. He has controlled 14 Cowboys games with the boys from FNQ winning eight.
Who is going to win and why
I want to say the Roosters. They are at home, their side is strong and they’ve been consistent. But the stats keep saying the Cowboys and this is, after all, a statistical preview.
With all their danger men, there is a question over whether the Sydneysiders will perform and I don’t have the same question marks over North Queensland’s key players.
The Cowboys are going to win because they’ve never capitulated this season – no matter how bad things got, they always fought each game out. Now they’ve got momentum, self-belief and a few returning players at a crucial time.
The Roosters have been competitive this season without ever being truly convincing.
Damn it, I’m going with what the numbers say.
Prediction: Cowboys by 2