How has this happened? The North Queensland Cowboys have a chance to qualify for the NRL grand final when they travel south for a preliminary final against the refreshed Sydney Roosters.

At risk of being accused of underrating the Cowboys and sounding like a broken record, Paul Green’s men aren’t supposed to be here. They were never meant to make the finals without Matt Scott and Johnathan Thurston, let alone to go within 80 minutes of the big dance.

Finals experience, grit and determination does funny things to a rugby league team though. The Cowboys have a very similar squad to the one who won the 2015 grand final over the Broncos. Even missing the greatest player in the world, they have put on two epic performances to make it this far.

Of course, most of the attention heading into this match is on the Cowboys, and why wouldn’t it be after the eighth placed team knocked ove the Cronulla Sharks in extra time, then got over the Parramatta Eels with a superb performance.

Two games on the road, both against difficult opposition and a team hitting fine form have found their way through both of them.

What was so impressive about last week for the Cowboys was the way they beat the Eels. It wasn’t scrappy, it wasn’t boring and it sure was fantastic rugby league. Michael Morgan led the way as they were happy to throw it around, create scoring opportunities and stretch the Eels’ defence.

That was in stark contrast to their beating of the Sharks, when they were happy to get into the grind and hope things fell their way – which they eventually did.

Whether they can keep that level of performance up, play another 80 minutes and adapt their plan to the situation of the match is anyone’s guess.

If they can, they will be incredibly hard to beat. Particularly if the Roosters are scratchy, as they were in the first week of the finals when they got over the Broncos to book their spot in the preliminary final, earning a week off in the process.

There’s a line of thought that says a week off at this point of the season is just about the greatest thing a team could get. It’s hard to say it’s the case for the Roosters though. Their form has been inconsistent, and they have faded in and out of matches badly.

An extra elimination match against Penrith might have done them the world of good in preparing for what is going to be a physical encounter against the Cowboys, who have been on fire with their forwards leading the way.

The Roosters finished the season with a number of games which simply didn’t inspire confidence. They were finding ways to get it done but never seemed to kick into gear. Watching the qualifying final, it was almost like the Roosters knew it didn’t matter.

Like the only consequence of a loss was that they would have to play again, rather than getting a week off.

I don’t want to read too much into attitudes, but it didn’t look good. Now, in a straight elimination final, the question remains as to whether they get back into a groove they found during the middle third of the season – one which ensured they would qualify for the top four.

History

Last five meetings
2017, Round 21 – Roosters 22 defeat Cowboys 16 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney
2016, Round 23 – Roosters 22 defeat Cowboys 10 at Allainz Stadium, Sydney
2016, Round 3 – Cowboys 40 defeat Roosters 0 at 1300 Smiles Stadium, Townsville
2015, Round 1 – Roosters 28 defeat Cowboys 4 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney
2014, semi-final – Roosters 31 defeat Cowboys 30 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Team news
The Cowboys’ inspirational captain Matt Scott has been named on the reserves. It stunned the rugby league world when it was announced on Tuesday, with Scott thought to be out for the season having injured his ACL.

I don’t want to get ahead of myself, because it’s only the reserves bench, but it would be a huge boost to the Cowboys forward pack if the Queensland and Australian veteran were to play the preliminary final. When it comes to big-match experience, you can’t get much better than Scott.

The Roosters have moved Latrell Mitchell into the centres after their week off. Daniel Tupou has claimed his wing spot, which means Ryan Matterson is back to the bench. In an interesting move, Zane Tetevano is onto the bench, with Kane Evans and Joseph Manu back to the reserves.

Key players
The last two weeks, i’ve told you until I was blue in the face Jason Taumalolo was the Cowboys key player, and he is. But, it’s becoming obvious the form of Michael Morgan warrants a special mention here.

He is in career-best form. This isn’t just a purple patch, but it should be the making of Morgan. Playing without Thurston was always a question hanging over his head, but after a slow start, he has risen, answered it and punched the doubters in the face.

His short-range kicking game in particular has been phenomenal, but last week he showed his vision. He had absolutely no hesitation in trying different things, making plays out of his own half, spreading the ball early. He did it all and could shred the Roosters if he attempts similar this week.

On the other side of the coin, Luke Keary is the key man for the tri-colours. While Mitchell Pearce is seen as the lead and more experienced half – and with good reason – his form is often dependent on a halves partner playing the role beside him.

It’s no coincidence Pearce has had his best games at the same time as Keary this season. Keary’s kicking game takes a lot of pressure off Pearce, and if he can do that ten the Roosters attack will be all the better for it.

Will Matt Scott play, and what difference does it make?
As we have hinted, there is a chance Scott will make his incredible return for the Cowboys in the preliminary final. He hasn’t been sighted on the field since Round 2, making the decision of Paul Green to throw him into the fire all the more amazing.

By all accounts, he has been running again for about five weeks. Whether that makes him right to play for 80 minutes is anyone’s guess, but it’d be a worthwile punt if Green does decide to throw him in.

Scott is a big-game player. He has played in State of Origins, Test matches, a grand finals and countless other finals series matches. He has performed out of his skin on a consistent basis in most of those matches as well. If he is fit, then he is the Cowboys best option.

The Cowboys may need to sacrifice the utility value of Ben Hampton on the bench to fit him in, playing an extra forward as cover, but it’d be a worthwile risk. Jake Granville can play 80 minutes and the Cowboys tend to lose a step when he isn’t on the paddock.

The combination of Matt Scott and Jason Taumalolo is flat out scary. It could win the Cowboys the game, so Green will play him if at all possible.

Playing 80 minutes might be the difference
The difference between the Cowboys and their previous two opponents is the ability to play 80 – or 90 – minutes. In the first week of action, the Cowboys spent 90 minutes grinding and toiling their way to victory.

They backed their defence, did the little things right and the errors flowed from the Sharks.

Again, they played 80 minutes against the Eels, who fell over in a heap during the second half. Errors and penalties, poor discipline and bad decisions hampered the Eels, while the men from Townsville took full advantage of the situation presented in front of them.

The Roosters, on the other hand, have struggled to play for 80 minutes for most of the season. You only need to look back at their final few rounds to get an idea of their consistency levels from half-to-half and week-to-week.

Teams like the Titans and Tigers, who they should have easily been breezing past, they instead were scrapping over the line against. Round 26 saw them snatch victory from the jaws of defeat over the Titans, and it was the case again in their qualifying final against the Broncos.

Drift in and out of this one, and the Cowboys will make you pay.

How do the Roosters stop Jason Taumalolo?
It seems to be the golden question surrounding the Cowboys at the moment. Jason Taumalolo is a one-man wrecking ball. He runs 200 metres for fun, many of them post-contact and terrorises opposition defences.

The Kiwi lock didn’t standout last week, yet one look at the match statistics tells you he averaged 12 metres per run, making 250 of them. He is dynamic, dominant, can ball play and is impossible – or so it seems – to stop.

Taumalolo’s efficiency is what makes him so dangerous. You can count on him to do something every time he touches the ball, and there is no greater example of that than his try against the Sharks in the elimination final, when he went from a standing start and dragged four players over the line with him.

That’s pure brute strength. While the Roosters have some big forwards themselves – Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Dylan Napa must lead the charge – their defensive effort is going to have to be at the top of its arc if they are to stop him.

So, who’s going to win?
The script, logic and everything else says the Roosters should win this. They have had a week off, are facing a team who have played two physical contests and have home ground advantage.

They have found ways to get out of games this year and you don’t finish second on the ladder for no reason.

In saying that, the Cowboys were more than brave and lucky last week. They were fantastic. Their attack was innovative, they played footy and yet kept their mistakes down.

The Roosters defence isn’t on the same level as the Sharks was in the first week, and the difference here is that the Cowboys will fight and work hard for 80 minutes.

With that in mind, I’m going the Cowboys to make it a fairytale and get to the grand final, whether Scott plays or not.

Prediction: Cowboys by 6.

Key game information: Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys NRL preliminary final

Kick-off: 7:40pm (AEST)
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
TV: Live, Fox League 502 and Nine Network
Online: Live, Foxtel app, Foxtel now and NRL live pass
Betting: Roosters $1.35, Cowboys $3.30
Overall record: Played 35, Roosters 25, Cowboys 10
Last meeting: 2017, Round 21 – Roosters 22 defeat Cowboys 16 at Allianz Stadium
Last five: Roosters 4, Cowboys 1
Record in finals: Played 2, Roosters 2, Cowboys 0
Record at venue: Played 14, Roosters 11, Cowboys 3
Referees: Gerard Sutton and Adam Gee

Sydney Roosters
1. Michael Gordon
2. Daniel Tupou
3. Latrell Mitchell
4. Mitchell Aubusson
5. Blake Ferguson
6. Luke Keary
7. Mitchell Pearce
8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves
9. Jake Friend
10. Dylan Napa
11. Boyd Cordner
12. Aidan Guerra
13. Isaac Liu
Interchange
14. Ryan Matterson
15. Sio Siua Taukeiaho
16. Zane Tetevano
17. Connor Watson
Reserves
18. Kane Evans
19. Victor Radley
20. Joseph Manu
21. Mitchell Cornish

North Queensland Cowboys
1. Lachlan Coote
2. Kyle Feldt
3. Justin O’Neill
4. Kane Linnett
5. Antonio Winterstein
6. Te Maire Martin
7. Michael Morgan
8. John Asiata
9. Jake Granville
10. Scott Bolton
11. Gavin Cooper
12. Ethan Lowe
13. Jason Taumalolo
Interchange
14. Ben Hampton
15. Coen Hess
16. Corey Jensen
17. Shaun Fensom
Reserves
18. Ray Thompson
19. Javid Bowen
20. Braeden Uele
21. Matthew Scott

Don’t forget The Roar will carry live coverage and highlights of every NRL finals match.