Dustin Martin will win the 2017 Brownlow Medal tonight. Sorry, was that not enough foreplay for you?
This looks like the virtually certain outcome. Martin is into a price of just $1.05 for the medal, while his closest rival, Hawthorn’s Tom Mitchell, is out to $12.
If Patrick Dangerfield was still in the running then we might have a genuinely intriguing race between two modern greats of the game.
However because Dangerfield copped a one-week ban for a dangerous tackle on Matthew Kreuzer, the result is now pretty much a formality.
Personally, I suspect that Martin will score more votes than Dangerfield anyway, making his ban a moot point.
But, you can certainly expect some awkwardness if Dangerfield comes out on top and then, as the reigning champ, has to award a Brownlow that he otherwise would have won.
Martin has had a brilliant season and the win is fully deserved.
Many years ago when I’d had a Twitter account for about two weeks I scoffed at some random suggesting that he was capable of winning a Brownlow someday.
Dusty, you’ve gone and proved me wrong. Well done sir.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
With the overall result pretty much certain, let’s take a look instead at the players like to get the most votes club-by-club. Here are my predictions.
Adelaide Crows – Rory Sloane
The favourite among Crows and he should come out on top. Matt Crouch would be an outside chance I suppose but players rarely poll as well in breakout years as they should.
Brisbane Lions – Dayne Zorko
Could be a close one between the two great Daynes, but I reckon Zorko comes out on top over Beams.
Carlton Blues – Bryce Gibbs
Marc Murphy played some great footy this year and won the best and fairest, but I reckon he was more consistent whereas Gibbs was more eye-grabbing, so Gibbs for mine.
Collingwood Magpies – Adam Treloar
Probably a close race between two former Giants. I’m tipping Treloar over Taylor Adams, but it could certainly go either way.
Essendon Bombers – Zach Merrett
Hard to see anyone coming close to him, he had a brilliant year as Essendon’s standout midfielder and was All Australian for the first time.
Fremantle Dockers – Nat Fyfe
Might not be leading for the Dockers at the halfway mark but look for him to rocket up the board in the last two months or so.
Geelong Cats – Patrick Dangerfield
Danger is ineligible but certainly will record the most votes of any Cat. After him, I reckon Mitch Duncan is a real chance to pip Joel Selwood.
Gold Coast Suns – Gary Ablett junior
Missed more than a few games but still did well enough to win the Suns’ best-and-fairest and I reckon he’ll win their most votes easily too.
GWS Giants – Josh Kelly
Although players in breakout seasons don’t always get the recognition they should, he’s been such a standout this year that he’ll still do well.
Hawthorn Hawks – Tom Mitchell
Pretty much a no contest. He was far and away their best player all year long.
Melbourne Demons – Clayton Oliver
Breakout players don’t always pick up as many votes as you’d think, but he’s been head and shoulders above the rest clearly enough that he should pick up plenty.
North Melbourne Kangaroos – Ben Cunnington
A tough call between Cunnington and Shaun Higgins. Ben Brown also in the mix, but key forwards don’t tend to poll well.
Port Adelaide Power – Ollie Wines
Robbie Gray had a great year, but feel like Wines’ work in the midfield might get him more than love than a medium forward.
Richmond Tigers – Dustin Martin
In an absolute canter.
St Kilda Saints – Seb Ross
The Saints’ standout midfielder this year, you’d imagine he finishes ahead of the rest of the pack probably quite comfortably.
Sydney Swans – Lance Franklin
Should pick up the three votes in more than a few games thanks to a series of big bags this year and beat out skipper Josh P Kennedy.
West Coast Eagles – Sam Mitchell
Maybe a bit of a flyer this one, but he’s a proven vote-getter and Josh J Kennedy’s lengthy injury opens the door.
Western Bulldogs – Jackson Macrae
Bont’s had a good year and would probably be the favourite, but Macrae has had an underrated season and can finish on top.
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