The Roar
The Roar

Advertisement

A month to go: NRC questions that need answers on the run home

4th October, 2017
Advertisement
(Image: Kevin Juggins)
Expert
4th October, 2017
63
1445 Reads

Four rounds of the National Rugby Championship left to play means that we’re edging closer to the pointy end of the season. This is the weekend in which some finals aspirations will be severely dented in some cases, and completely extinguished in others.

Six wins has been about the standard to reach NRC Finals Series in seasons past, in both seven and eight-game seasons, and I still think that will be the case in the nine-game schedule this year.

I do concede, however, that five wins and bonus points might be enough to scrape in if teams keep taking points off each other like they are.

That sounds contradictory, I realise, but I maintain both points are true this year. It’s just been that sort of season. And that means most teams have questions that need answers over the remaining four rounds.

Are Queensland Country finals bound?
Almost certainly, yes. First after five rounds, and with a game in hand over all three of their top four counterparts on 15 points currently.

I can see wins over NSW Country and Greater Sydney in the next fortnight, but the Drua in Fiji will be a big test, and a final home game against Perth could be too, depending on who the Spirit are left with after Alan Jones and his Barbarians finish their Western Force-focussed selection for the match against the Wallabies.

They are the big improvers of the NRC, though, and it’s easy to see in their defence and their work ethic why there’s so much attraction around Brad Thorn coaching the Reds next season.

Which Canberra side will play out the last month?
Will it be the solid-but-unspectacular side that won the first two games? The one who scraped past Brisbane City, but couldn’t against NSW Country? Or will it be the side who tore the Fijian Drua to shreds last Friday night?

Advertisement

I don’t know the answer to this. All three answers are possible. If it’s the first team, they might – and only ‘might’ – make the finals. If it’s the second, they won’t. And if it’s the third, they’ll lift the NRC Toast Rack trophy on November 11. That’s how good that performance was.

Are Perth the sneaky competition favourites?
Yep, I think they are. And probably not that sneaky, either. If they finished with three wins from their last three games – they have the bye this weekend – they’ll qualify top two and take a lot of beating from there.

Richard Hardwick Perth Spirit NRC Rugby Union 2017

(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

The aforementioned last game against Queensland Country will be crucial, but as they showed last year, the Spirit won’t be afraid of travelling east both weekend of the finals. I think they’re sitting very nicely, indeed.

Are the Fijian Drua their own worst enemy?
Probably. Discipline was always going to be their undoing, and the judiciary hearing tonight in Sydney could remove two of their best players for the rest of their campaign, with inside centre Eroni Vasiteri and goalkicking fullback Apisalome Waqatabu cited for an alleged eye gouge on Canberra hooker Folau Fainga’a last Friday night.

Fourteen yellow cards have been handed out in the first five rounds, and three of them have been to Drua players. But the Fijians have been the only team to sit down in front of judiciary panels, and all of them have been for rather nasty incidents.

If they can keep their discipline, they’ve already proved they’re one of the best teams in the comp. Their points differential copped a hammering in Canberra last week, but their three opposition teams to come know exactly how dangerous they can be. They can play finals this season, quite easily, if they want to. But it’s up to them.

Advertisement

Greater Sydney Rams: Overachieving or underachieving?
Two wins and two losses might suggest they’re about on par, but given the two wins have been against the NSW-based sides, and the two losses against sides benefitting from Super Rugby programs (if not actual playing experience, in Melbourne’s case), then you might have a different view.

I had concerns about them going into the season, just on the strength of their list, so in many respects, they’re going better than I thought they would. They’re playing good rugby though, and have plenty of attacking strike power when they can create opportunities. My suspicion is this weekend’s ‘Pasifika Day’ at TG Milliner will answer this question.

Paul Asquith Greater Sydney Rams NRC Rugby Union 2016

(Photo by Brett Hemmings/Getty Images)

Are NSW Country on the way back?
I think they might be. They’re a long way from their best, where this time last year they only dropped their first game in Round 6, and they’re the first to admit that.

But they will take a lot out of a scrappy, defence-led win like Monday’s over the Rays in Goulburn. That’s the sort of win that they can use as a benchmark, and if they can light a spark under their attack, they could be the side to upset the top four apple cart. Keep an eye on them.

Are Brisbane City done for 2017?
Nope, not yet. The loss to a pretty hot Perth Spirit side will sting, no doubt, but with a game in hand, they can still finish on nearly as many points as the teams currently in the top four.

City have games against the three NSW sides and Melbourne to come, and with Quade Cooper steering the ship and Karmichael Hunt still rumoured to return, they could win all four of them. Lose this weekend, and they could be done; win, and keep winning, and they could the team approaching in the top four’s rear view in a real hurry.

Advertisement

What of the Sydney Rays and Melbourne?
They’re done. Well, to clarify, Melbourne are definitely done, but the Rays do have a game in hand, and could still get to five wins and 25 points, which might be enough. But there’s a whole lot of coulds and mights in all that, and once you’re talking about mathematical chances, those chances really aren’t that great, are they.

The young Rising side were probably always up against it, given their experience level, but they’ve shown plenty of guts and promise and should learn a lot from their NRC experience, considering I was watching plenty of them in the Super Under-20s back in March and April.

The Rays have endured an injury toll from hell this NRC, and it got worse again on the weekend, with flyhalf Angus Sinclair getting onto the bus in Goulburn wearing a moonboot. They’re a better side than their results show, however, and they could a real danger team over the remaining round for opposing teams.

Round 6 – Pasifika Round
SATURDAY
12pm AEST/1pm AEST: Queensland Country v NSW Country Eagles; Bond University, Gold Coast – Live streamed
3pm AEST: Greater Sydney Rams v Fijian Drua; TG Milliner Oval, Sydney – LIVE on Fox Sports 501

SUNDAY
1pm AEDT: Melbourne Rising v Canberra Vikings; Frankston Park, Melbourne – Live streamed
3pm AEDT: Sydney Rays v Brisbane City; Pittwater Rugby Park – LIVE on Fox Sports 501

Perth Spirit have the bye.

NRC ladder
Queensland Country 15, Canberra 15, Perth 15, Fiji 15;
Greater Sydney 9, NSW Country 8, Brisbane City 8, Sydney 5, Melbourne 4.

Advertisement
Queensland Country play North Harbour Rays

Tips
Rocks or diamonds. One correct or three correct. Three again last week, and I’m still waiting for Fiji to show me the “too many points” they were going to have for Canberra!

Saturday should see Queensland Country overcome their southern cousins, and while I’m sticking with Fiji over the Rams, I do it with no confidence whatsoever. Canberra and Brisbane City look to strong on Sunday.

But remember, I’ve gone 3-1-3-1-3 so far, which means I’m due to get…?

I don’t know, either. Enjoy your NRC rugby this weekend.

close