UFC 216, Ferguson versus Lee, is upon us and there are a number of exciting fights. Let’s get into the main card preview and predictions.
First up is the lightweight fight between Beneil Dariush (14 wins, three losses) and Evan Dunham (18, 6). Dunham is coming off a four-fight winning streak, somewhat of a career resurgence after losing three in a row. Dariush is coming off a knockout loss to Edson Barboza, but despite this is still the firm favourite to win.
Both are good grapplers, but Dariush is probably the more well-rounded fighter with only three losses to his name, with Dunham not known for his striking. It is hard to see this fight being an all-out brawl, with both fighters relying on a solid ground game. I expect this fight to go the distance with Dariush winning by decision.
On the original UFC 216 card, Paige VanZant was expected to face Jessica Eye, but with VanZant pulling out due to a back injury, the fight was replaced by a women’s flyweight bout between Kalindra Faria (18, 5) vs. Mara Romero Borella (11, 4).
Both are making their UFC debuts and are relatively unknown, making this fight possibly the hardest to predict. The Brazilian Faria is certainly the more anticipated fighter. She was at first expected to face Andrea Lee on this card, but Lee was disallowed, having not been subject to USADA drug testing. Borella stepped up to take the fight on short notice.
Faria is coming off a three-fight winning streak, while Borella has been undefeated for her last five (one no-contest). However, the odds are with Faria. Her vicious striking and greater experience will be the difference between the two. Faria by stoppage in the second.
The following match is an exciting heavyweight bout between Fabrício Werdum (21, 7, 1 draw) vs. Derrick Lewis (18, 5, 1 n/c). Here we see the knockout power of Lewis matched up against the technique of the great Werdum.
Both fighters are coming off losses, Lewis having been knocked out by Mark Hunt and Werdum losing a decision to Alastair Overeem. However, of the two Lewis had the better previous run, winning six in a row. Combined with his incredible knockout and the age difference, Lewis has a real chance if he clips the Brazilian early.
That said, Werdum is the more skilled all-around fighter, and if the fight goes to the ground or into the later rounds, it is hard to see Lewis being able to hold up. Werdum by submission in the second.
(AP Photo/Christian Palma)
The co-main event for UFC 216 is the flyweight championship between Demetrious Johnson (26, 2, 1) and Ray Borg (11, 2). In this fight “Mighty Mouse” Johnson is looking to break Anderson Silva’s UFC record by completing 11 title defences. Johnson, possibly the most skilled pound-for-pound fighter in the world, is an overwhelming favourite, and it is hard to see where Borg wins this fight.
Borg is an excellent grappler, but against the skill of Mighty Mouse, this is not a great matchup for him. Baring some miracle, Johnson should win and win easily, probably by decision.
The final fight of the night is the much anticipated lightweight interim championship between Tony Ferguson (22, 3) and Kevin Lee (16, 2). Ferguson has struggled to find opponents this year, with Khabib Nurmagomedov notoriously failing to make weight. However, he has finally found an opponent in the exciting Kevin Lee.
Lee is a real force. Brendan Schaub has suggested that if Lee is to win this fight, he has the personality and skills to get the UFC’s biggest start for his next fight – Conor McGregor. Lee is a strong wrestler with good submissions and will pose a real threat to Ferguson.
However, we can’t forget Tony Ferguson is probably the best lightweight in the world. Lee may have the personality to be a star, but Ferguson is as skilful a fighter as there is.
His striking is fierce, he is an extremely decorated wrestler (interestingly, Lee and Ferguson went to the same wrestling school, Grand Valley State University), and under the tutelage of Eddie Bravo, his Jiu-Jitsu is excellent. If Lee can win, he will rise quickly in a star-depleted UFC, but it is a tough ask.
Once the fight goes into the later rounds, I expect Ferguson to take control. Ferguson by stoppage in the fourth.
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