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Caulfield Guineas day: Group 1 previews and tips

(AAP Image/Julian Simth)
Expert
12th October, 2017
9

Caulfield Guineas day and The Everest collide to provide wall to wall racing entertainment this Saturday, and a feast of quality racing awaits.

Four big Group 1’s are taking place at Caulfield, which we’ll have a look at today.

Caulfield Guineas
The 2017 Caulfield Guineas doesn’t look laden with stars, but it does appear to be quite an even field of handy types.

The Guineas Prelude and the Stutt Stakes are the key lead-up races, each providing six runners, with the former seen as the A-grade material.

The Guineas Prelude was a completely on-pace dominated race, with the first three in running the first three home.

Perast was able to out-gun Summer Passage in the straight, franking the Golden Rose form, while Kementari, who had been solid in the Run to the Rose first-up behind Menari, ran third after holding that position during the race.

Perast has now beaten Kementari home both times they’ve met this prep, has drawn a much friendlier barrier here, yet is twice the Godolphin colt’s odds.

Guineas favourite Royal Symphony suffered his first defeat in the Prelude, yet trainer Tony McEvoy is convinced it was his best ever run. Given he was the only horse to make a serious impression from the back of the field, and that no horse hit a higher top speed than him, his claims are sound.

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Royal Symphony will get 2kgs weight relief against his rivals from the Prelude, and should get a race run more to suit. He’s the one to beat out of that race.

Of the others to contest the Prelude: Levendi was good from back in what was only his third career start and might have a future; Éclair Sunshine was poorly behaved in the straight – he might correct himself with winkers applied and could be a place chance at big odds given he did run second to Royal Symphony the start prior; Al Passem has plenty against him, not least his level of talent.

Six of the first seven home in the Stutt Stakes are contesting the Guineas, but none are in the first six in the market which gives us an idea of how that form is seen to stack up.

Showtime was simply too strong in taking out that race, taking advantage of his forward position behind the speed set by The Mission who weakened badly and will find it hard to bounce back.

Of course, Showtime, along with Mighty Boss who was fourth in the Stutt, was beaten fair and square by Royal Symphony at Flemington back in mid-September, so it’s not easy to make a case for them turning the tables.

Salsamor and Holy Snow filled the placings behind Showtime in the Stutt, running on from midfield and beyond. They only have maiden wins to their name, but possess upside. Azazel was okay in a bit of traffic from the back, but couldn’t be conceded a chance.

Four horses in the Guineas didn’t come through the Prelude or Stutt, two of which are given every chance, and two of which are a bit more friendless.

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Catchy is the only filly in the race after the Hayes camp elected to tackle this instead of the Thousand Guineas.

She’s only won once in four attempts since her Blue Diamond win, but her Golden Slipper last was a complete forget run, and she struggled to carry maximum penalties in two goes against the fillies this prep.

Catchy’s win was a good one though, taking out the Danehill against the boys, and she also beat one of the Thousand Guineas favourites, Booker. This is another step up for her, but one she looks equal to.

Gold Standard has been up longer than Stonehenge, but is the second horse in the race with Golden Rose form. He beat home Perast that day, which is recommendation enough given that horse took out the Prelude, and he should get a lovely run from his draw.

Sanctioned backs up from a good finish in the Spring Champion last week, and has certainly had the grounding to run out a strong mile given his last two runs have been over 1800m and 2000m. He’s finished behind Gold Standard twice this prep, but has place claims at odds.

Sircconi is an outlier in terms of lead-up races, but has a win over older horses to his credit, including So Si Bon who has since run a Group 1 placing. He’ll perform honestly from an on-pace position, and won’t let any get past him without a fight.

The speed looks genuine in this, which should only suit the favourites Royal Symphony and Catchy and it will be no surprise if these two clear out to fight out the finish. They have an element of star quality about them that it’s hard to see in any others. The Golden Rose duo are the hardest for them to beat.

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Selections: 1.Catchy 2.Royal Symphony 3.Gold Standard 4.Perast

Thousand Guineas
A small but select field has been assembled for the Thousand Guineas.

Alizee is the dominant favourite after her Flight Stakes win up in Sydney, and is the only filly from that race to appear here. She’s really found her feet settling further back in the field at her last two starts, and has been able to harness her power advantage. There’ll be no bigger filly in the race.

If she brings her Sydney form to Caulfield, then she will simply win this race unless something unusual happens in the run. But Godolphin’s struggles in Melbourne have been well documented.

The Tranquil Star form looks to provide Alizee with her sternest test.

That race was won by Booker who was able to prove too tough racing on the speed, holding out the fast finishing Shoals thanks to a 2.5kg advantage over her. Those weights swing around now, and look to benefit the latter, especially with an extra 200m to run.

She’s So High was fourth in the Tranquil Star, and is a nice filly, but she had every chance to win and couldn’t do it. She’s a level below the top rung.

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Leather’n’lace and Pure Scot are backing up from the Edward Manifold Stakes last week, after running third and fourth respectively.

Leather’n’lace had every chance from her box seat position in that race, but will likely lead this field after crossing from barrier seven with Booker out of eight alongside her up the front. Caulfield Guineas day is known to play to on-pacers, and she might just run them along and try to get her competitors out of their comfort zone. She has the ability to win if Damian Lane gets it right.

Pure Scot was butchered by Regan Bayliss in the Manifold, and should have finished second after racing at the tail of the field. She’s the outsider in this field, but has claims if she gets clear running. Keep an eye on her for the Oaks.

Aloisia ran fifth behind Leather’n’lace at Caulfield three weeks ago, but never saw clear air in the straight and should have finished much closer. She was first-up there, and arrives second-up into this. Like every horse here, she’s not without claims, and could easily surprise.

Mintha is the other runner, and comes in to this mile race off an unusual preparation of runs over 1100m and 1200m only. She has pleased in both runs back with an eye for longer, but faces a stern test now.

Selections: 1.Shoals 2.Alizee 3.Leather’n’lace 4.Booker

Caulfield Stakes
This year’s Caulfield Stakes has assembled an eclectic field.

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Bonneval will jump as favourite as she shoots for seven wins in a row, with three Group 1 victories in her remarkable run. Last start she won the Underwood Stakes, in a manner that suggested there were more wins to come, and she is the Caulfield Cup favourite for a reason.

The widest barrier might present a sticking problem or two, but she’ll be the one to beat from wherever she settles in the run.

Hartnell keeps on turning up, but wasn’t ridden to best advantage in the Underwood after trainer James Cummings wanted him ridden more quietly, to avoid being a sitting duck as he had been in the Makybe Stakes the start before. He still ran second to Bonneval there, and can turn the tables.

All of Hartnell’s best performances have been when sitting just behind the speed, so a return to his favoured racing style gives him his best chance.

Gailo Chop is proving an honest competitor in the Group 1 WFA scene this spring, and even looked the winner for a second in the Underwood before running a good third. He’ll be there to pounce again if the others are off their game.

Jon Snow is another that will go forward, and he is undefeated from three starts at 2000m plus in this country. He knows how to take advantage of putting himself in the race, and he beat a handy field in the JRA Cup last start.

Four horses are having their first Australian start in the Caulfield Stakes – Johannes Vermeer and The Taj Mahal are owned by Lloyd Williams but trained by Aidan O’Brien, Riven Light has been brought over by the popular and colourful Willie Mullins, while Calderon is freshly under the care of Tony McEvoy.

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The Taj Mahal only has one career win to his credit in very restricted grade, but has run half a dozen times at Group 1 level and acquitted himself well.

Johannes Vermeer is only lightly raced but has taken on some of Europe’s best, and we can expect the Decorated Knight and Highland Reel form to be competitive in something like this.

Mullins loves to bring his European hurdlers down under, and Riven Light is one of those, but he brings winning flat form into the race with three victories since the start of August.

Calderon is heading to the Cox Plate and a date with Winx, and while nothing in his record suggests he can get close to her, he will need to prove competitive in this to be worthy of his place at Moonee Valley.

Inference, Single Gaze and Abbey Marie round out the field, and each of them can do something in the right circumstances.

Inference is ticking along okay for further and perhaps something easier, recording the equal quickest last 200m in the Underwood with Bonneval, and second quickest last 400m and 600m behind only Hartnell.

Single Gaze was brave in the Underwood and this hardy mare can find a win if dropping down a level. Abbey Marie is also going to find it tough to win, and a race like the Matriarch at Flemington during Cup week might be her go.

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Selections: 1.Bonneval 2.Hartnell 3.Johannes Vermeer 4.Jon Snow

Toorak Handicap
What a Toorak this is, as deep and even an edition that we’ve seen this century, with plenty of horses that won’t be out of place as a Group 1 winner.

Group 1 lead-up form is usually the place to start, and the Rupert Clarke is the traditional lead-up to this.

Mr Sneaky and Theanswermyfriend have been taking each other on all prep, and were both excellent in the Rupert Clarke finishing second and fifth respectively. The latter is proven at the mile and will look to control the race, while the former hits 1600m for the first time but shouldn’t have a problem. Both can win.

So Si Bon was third in the Rupert Clarke, with Sovereign Nation fourth, both putting in runs good enough to suggest they can be around the mark again. They have each drawn extremely wide barriers though and will probably go back, meaning they’ll either need some luck or to pass a lot of smart horses in order to win. It’ll be tough.

Tosen Stardom still hasn’t won in Australia, but has equally yet to put in a bad run. He had too much to do from the tail in the Rupert Clarke and finished a pleasing sixth. He meets his key rivals from that race a couple of kilo’s worse, which may play a role in denying him glory.

The Epsom handicap provides three key runners, including placegetters Tom Melbourne and Snitzon, plus the highly regarded Comin’ Through.

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Snitzon was solid on the inside in running third, and meets the others better at the weights. Comin’ Through was wide in the Epsom, but was entitled to do more and might have found his level.

Tom Melbourne has become a running joke of a horse, but is seriously flying. He does appear allergic to winning at the moment, but did have to overcome a setback in the straight before running a close second to Happy Clapper. Drawing wide will mean his usual bad luck will be trapped out there instead of getting blocked for runs.

Apart from Tom Melbourne and Comin’ Through, Chris Waller has race favourite Egg Tart and perennial boom horse Omei Sword, to give him a very strong hand.

Egg Tart is five weeks between runs after her closing second to Deploy in the Theo Marks, and we know that horse is among the Everest chances. Damien Oliver will look for a midfield position with cover from barrier nine, which will give his mount every chance.

Omei Sword hasn’t lived up to the billing from her younger days, but might be ready for a mile now, and should get a lovely trail from gate four. She can’t be left out of the quaddie, at least, given it’s hard enough to narrow down as it is.

That covers all of the main fancies, but there are still others.

I Am A Star is exactly that when taking on her own sex, but hasn’t beaten the boys since her third ever start. The market is saying raiders Kaspersky and Mask of Time can’t win. He or She doesn’t look like it, and stablemate Seaburge is in the same boat, despite the big races each has run in their time.

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Turnitaround has run good races at big odds in his two runs this campaign, and is the type that can run a drum at 50-1. Jacquinot Bay is a marvel that keeps on keeping on. Petrology can finish in the top half of the field on a good day. Wyndspelle isn’t the worst knockout chance if looking for one; he’s ready to win and stepping up to a mile suits.

The speed can be genuine without being crazy, and Theanswermyfriend can certainly steal the race if left alone up front.

Selections: 1.Tom Melbourne 2.Theanswermyfriend 3.Mr Sneaky 4.Omei Sword

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