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The Caulfield Cup is upon us once again, the first of the Melbourne spring ‘Big Three’ that captures the attention of casual racing fans and purists alike.
There looks a nice spread of quality throughout the field, and while some of the favourites are going to be hard to beat, most horses have claims of a podium finish at least, if things go their way.
Johannes Vermeer is the market-elect thanks to heavy backing during the week after his slashing Cup trial in the Caulfield Stakes last Saturday. The first three in the run ran first, third and fourth around him, while he made a huge impression from back in the field to finish a close second to Gailo Chop.
The travelling foreman for Johannes Vermeer appears brimming with confidence given he continues to refer to that Caulfield Stakes run as merely a track gallop, and from barrier two Ben Melham is going to be able to position the horse where he likes.
A number of factors make him the clear horse to beat but there isn’t much of a price left, it must be said.
Five other runners from the Caulfield Stakes present in the Cup, including former warm favourite Bonneval.
Bonneval ran sixth there, coming in off six wins in a row including three Group 1s. She drew awkwardly, got right back in a race controlled by the leader, and may or may not have pulled up lame depending on who you believe. From a wide draw she’ll have to go back again, but if it’s a swooper’s race she should be in the finish if right, and could easily run away with it based on her Underwood Stakes win.
Jon Snow was third in the Caulfield Stakes, but had every chance and has to find three lengths to beat Johannes Vermeer, at least. He’s a good horse in good form, and is proven at 2400m, but would likely need the cut out of the ground to be a genuine winning chance. He’ll get his chance up on the speed from a good gate.
Single Gaze was fourth in the Caulfield Stakes, finishing alongside Jon Snow, and like that horse had every chance. She is a hardy mare that always runs well, but has never appealed as a Caulfield Cup winner.
Inference always seems to get mentioned as a sneaky chance and always runs on, but rarely wins. His Randwick Guineas win and Rosehill Guineas second back in the autumn were both on bottomless tracks. He’ll be the horse closing into a top six or eight finish without ever looking a threat.
Abbey Marie is the other horse from the Caulfield Stakes, and has put in four solid runs this campaign as grounding for this race. Her class at this level is questionable, and frankly she looks like she wants three miles instead of 2400m.
The Turnbull Stakes is another key form reference, and rightly so given that five of the last six locally trained Caulfield Cup winners used that as their lead-in race.
Humidor battled into third behind Winx in the Turnbull but was looking his best over the last furlong, which can give his admirers confidence that he’s ready for 2400m now, especially under the tutelage of Darren Weir. The last time he saw this trip was when second in the BMW, but was beaten a long way behind Jameka that day, on a heavy track.
Humidor is carrying the number one saddlecloth, but isn’t badly in at the weights for a dual Group 1 WFA winner, and a couple of gear changes might see him produce his best again. He won’t be the last to be taken out of his comfort zone by Winx.
Ventura Storm ran second in the Turnbull, in what was a classic Caulfield Cup trial. He has been building beautifully all preparation for David Hayes, and was a Group 1 winner in Italy the last time he saw this trip.
Ventura Storm should get the perfect run in transit from barrier four under Damien Oliver, no doubt looking to be somewhere around the third pair in running, and he presents as the most appealing each-way play of those at double figures.
Sir Isaac Newton was fifth in the Turnbull, 4-5 lengths behind Ventura Storm and Humidor, after racing on a strong tempo, but his run prior in the Naturalism was quite good. He ran seventh in this race last year, and while a win would certainly shock, he can easily defy his odds as the second most despised runner.
Harlem won the Naturalism in dominant fashion to secure his Caulfield Cup berth, but failed to flatter when stepping out in the Bart Cummings last start. Depending on which run you want to trust, he is either a huge chance or couldn’t possibly win.
David Hayes has long been a master at applying blinkers first time for the grand final assignments of his horses, and Harlem benefits from that gear change here. Also crucial is that he has drawn gate one, the same as his Naturalism win, so a cosy run is all but guaranteed.
Amelie’s Star was the eye-catcher from the tail in the Naturalism behind Harlem, and then was the winner of the Bart Cummings when putting in a strong staying performance. She’s four from four when running at distances between 2100m-2500m, so the Caulfield Cup is right in her wheelhouse.
She drops 3kgs into this race from her Bart Cummings win, although it must be noted Harlem meets her 1.5kgs better from that race. The two of them have met three times this prep with not much between them. Amelie’s Star has drawn a tricky 13 gate though, which means Craig Williams will have some decisions to make early.
Lord Fandango looks a generous price coming off wins in the Benalla Cup and Herbert Power, the latter of which is run over this track and trip. In-form stayers on the quick back-up usually run well at this time of year, even when stepping up significantly in grade.
Yes, there are question marks over Lord Fandango’s class as the lowest rater in the field, but the beauty of a handicap is that he carries the lowest weight accordingly, and he’s probably the most progressive stayer in the race. He can’t be left out of multiples, at the least.
Marmelo and Wicklow Brave are two internationals in the field, but unlike Johannes Vermeer have not had a local lead-up run. Wicklow Brave ran well down the track in last year’s Melbourne Cup, and has been just going in Europe in recent times.
However, Marmelo is coming off a win in the Prix Kergolay, which has often been an instrumental lead-up race for overseas horses attacking the Melbourne spring. He’s only missed a place once in his last nine starts, and even that was only beaten less than two lengths at Group 2 level. He looks to be a live chance and is sure to run well.
Rounding out the field are Hardham, Boom Time and He’s Our Rokkii, all at bolter’s odds.
Boom Time is the pick of those, given his good run behind Lord Fandango in the Herbert Power, and meeting that horse better at the weights. He’ll go forward from barrier three, and can certainly give cheek in the straight if he has an easy time.
Hardham couldn’t win with Batman pulling and Superman pushing, while He’s Our Rokkii is 125-1 and should be triple that.
There doesn’t look to be hectic speed on paper and the two horses most likely to lead, Jon Snow and Boom Time, have drawn well. However, one or all of Moreira on Wicklow Brave from 16, Bowman on Marmelo from 10, and O’Hara on Single Gaze from 12 will want to push forward and take a position, and may inject some early tempo. The short run to the first turn always makes life difficult for jockeys drawn out.
Johannes Vermeer really does look the most bomb-proof selection given his combination of pedigree, trainer, class, weight, form and barrier draw, but how short should he really be? Looking towards the horses with the best recent form that have drawn kindly, might be the best betting play here.
Selections: 1.Johannes Vermeer 2.Ventura Storm 3.Harlem 4.Lord Fandango 5.Marmelo