2017 Caulfield Cup preview and betting strategy

Adam Page Roar Guru

By , Adam Page is a Roar Guru

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    All in all, 17 very good stayers will take their place in the 2017 $3 Million BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m) today.

    We are working on a Good3/4 track with the forecast likely to be fine for the afternoon. Here is my look at the great race.

    Speed
    There was some talk this would be a crawl but I see it as the opposite. Jon Snow, Single Gaze, Marmelo and Boom Time like to race on speed, and Team Williams have told Stewards they will ride Sir Isaac Newton aggressively from the wide gate.

    Doubt they will break records, but it will be a truly run Caulfield Cup.

    History
    Of the last 21 editions, 19 winners have either won or placed at their previous outing, which tells you that you need to be in really good form leading up to the Caulfield Cup. Marmelo, Johannes Vermeer, Ventura Storm, Hardham, Amelie’s Star and Lord Fandango fit this theory. The best lead up is the Turnbull Stakes.

    Since 2000, eight winners of the Caulfield Cup have used the Turnbull as their final lead up. Humidor (3rd), Sir Isaac Newton (5th) and Ventura Storm (second) all had their final lead up runs in the Turnbull Stakes.

    Who can’t win?
    I think there are many we can put a line through. I think Jon Snow needs it wet and I can’t see him turning the tables on Johannes Vermeer. He’s Our Rokkii will be lucky to beat the ambulance.

    Sir Isaac Newton is the pacemaker. Wicklow Brace is better suited over 3200m. Single Gaze is a bonny mare but she lacks the killer punch. Hardham is no chance, nor is Boom Time.

    A-Grade chances
    Humidor, on his best manners, is one of the hardest to beat. Johannes Vermeer is the obvious off his slashing effort last Saturday. And I think Bonneval, now she has been passed fit, will be rearing to go, and a drop of rain on the Thursday/Friday will suit her perfectly.

    Also willing to include Ventura Storm in this bracket given he ran so well in the Turnbull.

    Next tier
    If I saw a more stronger market push, I’d put Marmelo in the above paragraph. But he stays here. Inference with the blinkers on is a big tick. He just needs a wet track and he’d be right in it.

    Abbey Marie is a knockout chance at odds. Clocked one of the fastest final 200m of the Caulfield Stakes. Harlem gets really good weight relief and is primed for this. Amelie’s Star and her GF is the Melbourne Cup but I think she is a serious chance here.

    And Lord Fandango was outstanding in the Herbert Power last week. Rises sharply in grade, but stable is low flying.

    The verdict
    I can’t believe nearly $10 is on offer for Bonneval. She’s cleared to run, there is no lameness, so I expect her price to tumble in. She clocked the fastest splits from the 1000m-400m in the Caulfield Stakes last week before the lameness kicked in.

    That, and she didn’t really have clear air. Forgive a good horse for one ‘bad’ run, and her two 2400m starts, both wins, were high class. Johannes Vermeer is the obvious. Caulfield Stakes run was unbelievable.

    He can jump, put himself in a spot and dash off the speed. He’s run well on the quick back up before. My negative is the price. $4 is rock bottom. I think the big watch here is Marmelo.

    I’ve had a good crack at him for the Melbourne Cup and if you are looking to back one for the Cup before the Caulfield Cup, this is the one. He’s world class. And from all reports, his work at Werribee has been scintillating.

    Bonneval for me, to beat Johannes Vermeer, Marmelo and Ventura Storm.

    $100 betting strategy
    $15 Each Way on Bonneval at $10/$3.50
    $5 Each Way on Marmelo at $18/$6, Ventura Storm at $12/$4 and Abbie Marie at $23/$7.50
    $40 Trifecta on 1-2-3-7-11/1-2-3-7-9-11-14-15-16-17/1-2-3-7-9-11-14-15-16-17= 11.11% of the dividend if successful.