Saturday sure things: Caulfield Cup Day preview

Adam Page Roar Guru

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    Caulfield racing, baby! (AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

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    This weekend is all about the Caulfield Cup, the first of the majors, and while it’s not the best field we have ever seen, it does have depth to it.

    The feature is supported strongly for the program at Caulfield so here is my take on the quaddie legs.

    Race Seven: Harrolds Caulfield Sprint 1000m
    I think the price of Faatinah is too good to ignore. Unlucky in a Group l first up in the Moir and while the form out of that since has been ordinary, it’s a Group and this lot have contested nothing like that.

    Should park behind a hot speed and have last say. Property is a very good three year old for the Robert Smerdon team who looks primed to go off trials/jump outs. Badajoz is the hard fit/in form sprinter and I like him back to 1000m because he’ll be strong late off the mad speed.

    Faatinah on top, ahead of Property, Badajoz and Ocean Embers.

    Race Eight: BMW Caulfield Cup 2400m
    I can’t believe nearly $10 is on offer for Bonneval. She’s cleared to run, there is no lameness, so I expect her price to tumble in. She clocked the fastest splits from the 1000m-400m in the Caulfield Stakes last week before the lameness kicked in. That, and she didn’t really have clear air. Forgive a good horse for one ‘bad’ run, and her two 2400m starts, both wins, were high class.

    Johannes Vermeer is the obvious. Caulfield Stakes run was unbelievable. He can jump, put himself in a spot and dash off the speed. He’s run well on the quick back up before. My negative is the price. $4 is rock bottom.

    I think the big watch here is Marmelo. I’ve had a good crack at him for the Melbourne Cup and if you are looking to back one for the Cup before the Caulfield Cup, this is the one. He’s world class. And from all reports, his work at Werribee has been scintillating.

    Bonneval for me, to beat Johannes Vermeer, Marmelo and Ventura Storm.

    Race Nine: Schweppes Tristarc Stakes 1400m
    Bet of the day here for mine in Foxplay. I am stunned she isn’t more hard in the market and a clear favourite. Her efforts this Spring have been unbelievable. Nearly beat Winx first up and her two runs after were outstanding.

    Back to mares grade, draws a sweet gate. If she turns up fit/healthy, and gets normal luck, she wins. Ravi would be a massive threat had she drawn a gate. Just worried where she gets to from 17. How Now run was enormous.

    Shillelagh is the best roughie in the race. $26 was silly odds. $12 is her right price now. No luck fresh and is a bomb second up.

    Foxplay, Ravi, Shillelagh, Sold For Song.

    Race Ten: Carlton Draught Allnghi Stakes 1100m
    I think Nieta wins, but do I want to take $2.30 or thereabouts? No. But, I can understand why some will. Her form just reads lengths better than this lot. She has taken on the best of the best in the sprinting caper and has been far from disgraced.

    Back to mares grade, Bowman. Should win, but happy to watch. Crystal Fountain is the unknown. She’s unbeaten in four starts and has been impressive every time she has stepped out, and her recent jump out was very good.

    Next best is Sneakers, who really could have won both starts this prep had the bob gone her way. She should get a suck run behind the speed.

    Nieta on top, to beat Crystal Fountain, Sneakers and Concealer.

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