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Cup Week at Flemington is the best Carnival in Australia and one of the best worldwide. It kicks off this Saturday with Derby Day.
Nine races, all at Group level including four Group 1 events. Here is my look at the majors on the program.
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Race 5: Coolmore Stud Stakes, 1200m
You can’t go wrong backing Jukebox each way. Arguably should have won the Blue Sapphire but was wide no cover and did pull very hard. If he relaxes, he’s one of the hardest to beat.
I’m not a fan of the 1600-1200m scenario but I am a fan of Catchy so she goes in. We now know that sprinting is her go. Very keen to see what she does here. $26 for Merchant Navy earlier in the week was crazy. He’s a cracking type and his work leading in has been first class. If it’s last man standing, look out for Goodfella, who will love a brutal 1200m.
Tip: Jukebox on top, ahead of Catchy, Merchant Navy and Goodfella.
Race 6: Myer Classic, 1600m
If Shillelagh gets a run here, she’s on top. But looking at her out, I’m with Global Glamour. Yes, the bias and tempo helped her win the Tristarc, but keep in mind she was first-up there with a stack of improvement to come. She rates very highly here.
Shoals is the big watch in this one. The smart filly is better than I Am A Star, and won this last year as a three-year-old. Silent Sedition is the big player here from the soft draw and third-up at the mile. Ticks a few boxes. Now Or Later didn’t have much luck in the Tristarc and could be good odds here from an ideal gate.
Tip: Global Glamour on top, to beat Shoals, Silent Sedition and Now Or Later.
Race 7: Victoria Derby, 2500m
If you back either Ace High or Weather With You, you’ll return a profit. The nod just goes to Ace High on form. Fab win in the Spring Champion despite being ridden upside down. He’ll get a suck run off the pace here and with that more conservative ride, 2500m is no issue.
Weather With You was outstanding in winning the Geelong Classic. Did plenty wrong but still found plenty. Just needs to relax in the blinkers. I’ve got him at $26 prior to his resumption so here’s hoping.
Sully was very one paced in the Spring Champion but he fought on strongly and returning to Melbourne could spark him into action. Ocean’s Fourteen is the improver from the Geelong Classic and you have to respect anything the stable is saddling up.
Tip: Ace High to win the Derby, ahead of Weather With You, Sully and Ocean’s Fourteen.
Race 8: Kennedy Mile, 1600m
She’s had an interrupted prep, but this race will tell us if Egg Tart is as good as I think she is. She can be the best horse in the country outside Winx so I’ll butter up.
Forget her run in the Toorak – boxed in and being asked to sit/sprint isn’t her go. This is a bigger track, clear air, with McEvoy back on… ticks all the boxes.
Tosen Stardom had conditions to suit in the Toorak and duly saluted. Harder here but going well. Sovereign Nation was a sectional star in the Toorak and he saves his best for Flemington. Against the boys is an ask, but I’m very wary of Shillelagh.
Tip: Egg Tart on top, to beat Tosen Stardom, Sovereign Nation and Shillelagh.
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