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It wasn’t that many years ago that the annual question of who would go at pick No.1 in the AFL draft was a rather silly one, debated only as a means for filling time in the pre-draft broadcast.
Year after year there were individual prospects who separated themselves from the pack at some stage during the season and became widely accepted as the top pick in waiting, months out from the draft.
Battles were fought in the home-and-away season for the ‘Kreuzer Cup’ by clubs who already knew beyond doubt who they would pick up with the first selection, if they held it.
But times have changed. Tom Boyd in 2013 was a clear No.1 prospect almost a year out from the draft, but the years since have often seen the first selection go down to the wire.
Most expected St Kilda to pick Christian Petracca at No.1 in 2014 until about 48 hours before the draft. Hugh McCluggage was seen as the leading contender for much of 2016 and slipped to pick 3.
Jacob Weitering was a relatively drama-free top pick in 2015, but still an interesting outlier in draft history as key defenders are rarely if ever considered for the top selection.
And now in 2017 the race is as open as it ever has been. Brisbane coach Chris Fagan says the Lions have narrowed it down to two players, but we don’t even know for sure who those players are.
What’s causing this? Two key factors.
One is the absence of a big key forward in the mix. Dominant tall forwards are so difficult to find that clubs with the top selection rarely pass on the opportunity to draft one. We’ve seen three taken with the No.1 pick in the last six years.
The second is that the Brisbane Lions are the team holding the selection, and for them perhaps more than any other club in the league, there is a need to consider not just who is the best prospect, but who is most likely to commit to the club for the longterm. In brief, the ‘go-home factor’.
Ultimately we find the Lions picking from a small group of midfield prospects who have risen to the pointy end of calculations. Any of them would make a fine addition to their young list, so how do they make the decision between them?
Most agree that the most promising talent of the lot is Cam Rayner, who has been extensively compared to 2017’s most iconic player, Dustin Martin.
(Photo by Robert Prezioso/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Much like the rest of the universe, I have virtually no faith in pre-draft comparisons, but there is one thing for certain that Rayner and an 18-year-old Martin have in common: they have a lot of work to do to become genuine stars.
Rayner predominantly splits his time between the forward line and the midfield, and has a significant ways to go improving his endurance if he’s going to become a fulltime midfielder (or at least 80 per cent), which is what clubs will be hoping he does.
He recently ran a two-kilometre time trial in 7:57, which I’m told is not particularly impressive. For a point of comparison, the best time recorded among this year’s draft group was 6:09.
Endurance and tank can be improved, but what is more likely to make the Lions wary of Rayner is the rumour and innuendo that goes around about him being a potential flight risk.
We could talk plenty about the different factors and influences that might tip off clubs about whether or not a potential recruit really would be committed to the cause.
Draftees might be happy to say they are in for the long haul when they really aren’t. More commonly, they might very much think they are, but don’t fully understand just yet the challenges that will entail.
If the Lions really do want to pick a player they are confident will stay, and are genuinely worried about Rayner in that regard, arguments can be made for some of the others.
Luke Davies-Uniacke and Paddy Dow, widely touted as being likely to fill out the top three picks, are both country boys rather than city boys, which is often considered a greater indication of a player’s willingness to stay interstate. A trade to Melbourne just doesn’t have the same appeal if you hail from, say, Mildura.
However the real wildcard in the pack, and at this stage seemingly the most likely player to bolt into pick 1 ahead of Rayner and the rest is Andrew Brayshaw – the son of former Claremont and North Melbourne player Mark Brayshaw, brother of Melbourne’s Angus Brayshaw, nephew of James Brayshaw.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
A player with so many family links in Melbourne would raise an eyebrow or two at first, but Brayshaw also has an older brother who resides in Brisbane. On top of that, the Lions could decide to draft another Brayshaw brother – Hamish – later in the piece, to further ease the risk of homesickness.
Why hasn’t Brayshaw been considered for pick 1 before now? He doesn’t have that obvious standout attribute that separates him from the pack.
Rayner has his dynamism, dominance, his ability to hit the scoreboard. Davies-Uniacke has the big body, that readiness to line up at the first centre bounce in Round 1, 2018. Paddy Dow has a wicked burst of speed away from the contest, not unlike another Paddy D in the competition.
Brayshaw, on the other hand, is a jack of all trades, without being the best in the pack at any of them. He can win the ball, he can use the ball, he’s got some speed but not the most, he stacks up well in terms of endurance.
Great players are often remembered by their defining attributes. Lance Franklin has his powerful long-distance goal kicking on the run. Scott Pendlebury his ice-cold, slow-motion class. Dusty has the don’t argue.
But some players are just good at everything without the need to have that one iconic trick in their book. You could argue Gary Ablett Jr, one of the best ever to play the game, is one of these. I’m not saying Brayshaw is Gary Ablett – but there’s nothing wrong with being well-balanced.
Rayner, Davies-Uniacke, Dow and Brayshaw would all be deserving of the accolade of pick 1 in a year where all four have shown they can be elite. Personally, I’d even have Adam Cerra and Jaidyn Stephenson (who is, for what it’s worth, a Lions fan) in the mix. It’s a dilemma for the Lions, but a very nice dilemma to have.
Although nothing is certain, it seems likely that the two players Fagan refers to as being in the running for pick 1 are Rayner and Brayshaw.
The go-home factor should and will factor into their thinking to some degree. There will always be some risks that need to be taken into account.
However, every player is a gamble to some degree, and there’s no such thing as a certainty. With that in mind, one might as well punt on the best talent you can find.
If Brisbane believe Cam Rayner is that player, then he’s the name they should call out at No.1 come Friday night.