2017 Winterbottom Stakes preview and betting strategy

Adam Page Roar Guru

By Adam Page, Adam Page is a Roar Guru

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    Jockey Joao Moreira (L) takes off from the barrier on Regal Monarch before falling in the near the hme straight in race 4 the Ronald McDonald House Charities Plate during Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington Racecourse on November 7, 2017 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

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    The Winterbottom Stakes (1200m) is always a tough sprint race to triumph in. It brings together the best of the local WA gallopers against the eastern state raiders who usually go over as an afterthought.

    It can be a tricky race to sort out, so here is my take on the Group 1 at Ascot this Saturday.

    Speed
    Expecting Dream Lifter to ping the lids and opt for cover, whether it be from Whispering Brook, Malibu Style or Caipirinha. The option is there for Fuhryk to go forward also and slot in one off. Durendal should land three back the rail. Don’t think they’ll go warp speed.

    History
    Might be worth nothing that four of the last six winners of this race have had their last start at Flemington. Rock Magic, Malibu Style and Fuhryk are the three runners that had their last start there during Cup Week.

    Who can’t win?
    I’d be very surprised if Durendal or Dream Lifter saluted despite drawing well. Profit Street and Whispering Brook are a bit hit and miss at times and Caipirinha may have to do too much work from the draw. Malibu Style also I can’t have.

    The A-Grade Chances
    The favourite State Solicitor is the one to beat of the locals, but under $3? Gee that’s short enough. Rock Magic has that A-Grade form, as does Viddora. Santa Ana Lane is first up for the Freedman camp and from all reports has settled into Perth beautifully. I think they are the key contenders.

    Next tier
    Dainty Tess has a booming finish on her and earlier in the year clocked the fastest final 600m ever recorded in WA racing history. If they do go silly in front look for her. Fuhryk can potentially map superbly here and while I doubt her as a serious Group 1 horse, this isn’t a serious Group l field.

    The Verdict
    If she gets cover, I think Viddora wins. She has been bursting to win a major for a little while and arguably should have won the Moir. Draws wide, but hopefully she gets three wide cover and launches at the top of the straight.

    State Solicitor is the obvious threat. He is a beast of an animal and a fast run 1200m will be right up his alley. In terms of a betting proposition, I couldn’t have him at $3 or under. Santa Ana Lane is similar to Viddora.

    Just needs cover and go back to the Goodwood, his effort there was unbelievable. Rock Magic has the form on the board and his Darley Classic effort was enormous.

    $100 betting strategy
    $100 boxed First Four on 1,2,8,9,11,12

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    The Crowd Says (1)

    • December 3rd 2017 @ 7:20pm
      michael steel said | December 3rd 2017 @ 7:20pm | ! Report

      A good assessment of chances Adam, ruined by a strange betting strategy, especially as you picked the winner on top.
      Most first four punters layer the ticket possibly with the field for fourth.

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