England are in a must-win situation when the Ashes head to Perth for the third Test, with Australia holding all the momentum at 2-0 up.

Australia took a ten-wicket win in Brisbane, although that doesn’t reflect the nature of the contest. England’s concentration lapses bit them hard as they fell apart in their second innings, David Warner and Cameron Bancroft then guiding the hosts to victory.

In Adelaide, with a pink ball and day-night cricket in play, Australia were well ahead of the match after a Shaun Marsh century in the first innings.

England were on the ropes, saved by a big partnership from Craig Overton and Chris Woakes, before they reduced Australia to just 138 in their second innings thanks to a stunning spell from James Anderson.

In the end, a 354-run chase was always going to be too much, but they gave Australia a bit of a scare.

The match showed exactly how quickly Test cricket can be flipped on its head, yet England face an uphill battle in Perth.

It’s long been thought the first two Tests of the series were the best chances for the tourists to get a win on the board. They haven’t so much as managed a draw though and it’s unlikely the conditions presented at the WACA are going to favour them.

It simply hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for the Poms, having won just a single Test in 13 attempts, drawing three others.

Australia have won all of the last five in dominant fashion though, and they are favoured heavily to do the same again here.

The history

The 2017-18 Ashes so far
First Test: Australia won by 10 wickets at the Gabba
Second Test: Australia won by 120 runs at the Adelaide Oval (D/N)

Australia lead England 2-0

Last five series
2015 – England 3 defeat Australia 2 in England
2013-14 – Australia 5 defeat England 0 in Australia
2013 – England 3 defeat Australia 0 in England
2010-11 – England 3 defeat Australia 1 in Australia
2009 – England 2 defeat Australia 1 in England

Last five matches at the WACA
Dec 13-17, 2013 – Australia defeat England by 150 runs
Dec 16-19, 2010 – Australia defeat England by 267 runs
Dec 14-18, 2006 – Australia defeat England by 206 runs
Nov 29 – Dec 1, 2002 – Australia defeat England by an innings and 48 runs
Nov 28 – 30, 1998 – Australia defeat England by 7 wickets

Overall record: Played 343, Australia 142, England 108, drawn 93
Total series: Played 69, Australia 32, England 32, drawn 5
Series in Australia: Played 34, Australia 18, England 14, drawn 2
Matches in Australia: Played 164, Australia 84, England 56, drawn 24
Matches at the WACA Played 13, Australia 9, England 1, drawn 3

Mitchell Marsh to replace Peter Handscomb, but why?
This is a selection that makes little to no sense for Australia if Marsh does play.

Mitchell Marsh averages 21 in Test cricket with the bat and if you’re being picked at No.6, batting is the primary reason for being picked. Even if you could justify it by saying he scored a century in the Sheffield Shield a fortnight ago, it still makes no sense.

The selectors’ reasoning for adding Marsh to the squad is both the extra bowling he can give the side and the form of Peter Handscomb.

But it’s hard to accept his talents with the ball as being the reason, given Australia’s refusal to use a fifth bowler. Marsh has been injured and only came back to bowling over the last two Sheffield Shield rounds, with his Test average being 37.48.

The problem facing Steve Smith and Darren Lehman in Perth is that the innings are likely to be longer, the temperature warmer and we are already going into the third Test of the summer. Heading in without a fifth bowling option could end in disaster.

Whether Marsh was the right option or not is debatable. His bowling on a WACA pitch would be superior to Glenn Maxwell, who seemed to be the other option, but if he’s picked for his batting, it’s hard to see how Maxwell was overlooked.

The form of Handscomb warrants a change. He is looking terrible at the crease, having only scored a handful of runs so far in the series. Backing up some woeful Shield form, it’s not hard to see why the selectors want to pull the trigger.

The Victorian is still in the squad, but it would appear unlikely he will play.

Balance-wise, the change strengthens Australia. Batting wise, it’s debatable at best, with Shaun Marsh being forced to move up a spot in the order.

Batting first provides an advantage
Of the last 15 Test matches played in Perth, ten have been won by the team batting first, with three draws.

Two of the others were won by an innings (by Australia against India in 2012 and England in 2002), while South Africa managed to beat Australia by six wickets in 2008 bowling first.

Knowledge of the conditions also helps, but a huge first innings total is more often than not scored and paves the way for at least a draw.

Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc make all the difference and England don’t have the attack to take 20 wickets
The pace difference between the two teams was noted heavily in the lead-up to the series and again throughout the first two Tests, yet it’s hardly had a chance to shine through.

The wickets so far have been slow, making it hard work for Starc, Cummins and to a lesser extent Josh Hazlewood who, despite being slightly slower in pace, hasn’t bowled his usual consistent self.

In fact, Hazlewood is averaging almost 30 with the ball. It’s not terrible, and still better than all the English quicks bar James Anderson, but he wouldn’t be happy.

Regardless of form, the pace difference is going to be the difference in Perth. Starc and Cummins regularly clicking over the 145 kilometres per hour mark will be simply too much for the English top order to handle.

On the other hand, none of the English quicks consistently reach 140, and it’s likely to be cannon fodder on the WACA wicket, even if they can bowl consistently and accurately all Test long.

It’s time for David Warner to release the shackles
Australia’s opening batsman has been somewhere been conservative and ugly through the first two Tests.

He actually sits third for runs so far, with 174, but that’s not a huge achievement given he scored 87 of those in the second innings at the Gabba.

Runs have been hard to come by in this series, but he has only scored 87 across his other three innings, which won’t fill him with confidence, especially after a sub-standard start to his summer at Shield level.

Still, this could be the Test where the vice-captain gets going – and if he does, watch out.

Warner has had plenty of fun at the WACA in previous years, with the mind immediately going back to his double century against New Zealand in 2015 or his monster innings against India in 2012 when he smacked 180 off 159 balls.

England have also had a taste of the explosive opener at his best on the WACA, after he hit 112 off 140 during the 2013-14 Ashes.

Basically, Warner scores a lot of runs in Perth no matter what the pitch is doing or who is in the attack, and he could well have this Test over on Day 1 if Australia win the toss and bat. Against an attack of bowlers who are unlikely to cause a great deal of problems on a track where it’s easy to score, he could hit top form.

Joe Root and Alastair Cook need to stand up
Two of the big disappointments so far in this Ashes series have been England’s two most experienced players in current captain Joe Root and former skipper Alastair Cook.

While Root had two 50s, his well-documented struggled with converting them into big centuries have come out to play again, his highest score being 67. If Root is ever going to join Steve Smith and Virat Kohli at the top of the game, he must work on his concentration to build a big score.

In the short term though, he needs to lead from the front and find a way to get to three figures.

While Root has looked in decent touch at times and scored some runs, Cook has just 62 runs from four innings, which is almost worthy of being dropped if there was a suitable replacement.

He is a man down on form, confidence and almost out of ideas on how to counter the Australian attack.

Perth may be the last chance for him to resurrect his career, otherwise retirement and a second consecutive lost Ashes series awaits.

Moeen Ali is going to get smacked to all parts
Spin bowling in Perth is a tough gig – just ask Mark Craig, who took match figures of 3 for 204 in 41 overs during the Kiwis’ 2015 tour.

The New Zealand spinner went at five runs per over and didn’t look remotely threatening, only picking up three lower-order wickets in Australia’s first innings. Essentially, the hosts batting order had a field day.

The line-up in question? David Warner, Joe Burns, Usman Khawaja, Steve Smith, Adam Voges, Mitchell Marsh and Peter Nevill.

Warner, Khawaja, Smith and presumably Marsh are going to be once again part of the Australian batting order, and will be looking to take down Ali with the same clinical attack.

It’s not hard to see it happening either. Ali has been battling a finger injury and taken just two wickets in 63 overs.

The slowness of the pitch and hesitation of both teams to properly go on the attack means his economy has only been about three runs per over, but for it to stay there in Perth would take a better performance and more wickets.

With Ali not doing much with the bat either, it’s hard to see what advantage he is bringing to the English line-up. He has been comprehensively outplayed by Nathan Lyon, who has 11 wickets at 22 – the second best in the series – and is a massive liability heading to Perth where the conditions will favour someone like Lyon who will generate a lot of bounce.

Key game information: Third Test

First ball: 1:30pm (AEDT) – 10:30am (local)
Venue: WACA, Perth
TV: Live, Nine Network
Online: Cricket Australia Live Pass
Betting: Australia $1.53, England $4.40, drawn $5.30
Umpires: Chris Gaffaney and Marais Erasmus

Likely XIs

Australia
1. David Warner
2. Cameron Bancroft
3. Usman Khawaja
4. Steve Smith (c)
5. Shaun Marsh
6. Mitchell Marsh
7. Tim Paine (wk)
8. Mitchell Starc
9. Pat Cummins
10. Nathan Lyon
11. Josh Hazlewood

Rest of squad – Jackson Bird, Peter Handscomb

England
1. Alastair Cook
2. Mark Stoneman
3. James Vince
4. Joe Root (c)
5. Dawid Malan
6. Jonny Bairstow (wk)
7. Moeen Ali
8. Chris Woakes
9. Craig Overton
10. Stuart Broad
11. James Anderson

Rest of squad – Gary Ballance, Ben Foakes, Jake Ball, Mason Crane

Hours of play

Note: Sessions may be altered based on match state, weather or over rates. Play may be extended until 9pm (AEDT) each day due to over rates or 10pm (AEDT) for weather.

Remaining series fixtures

Fourth Test: Tuesday December 26 – Saturday December 30 at MCG, Melbourne – 10:30am AEDT
Fifth Test: Thursday January 4 – Monday January 8 at SCG, Sydney – 10:30am AEDT

Prediction

The hosts hold the momentum, the superior bowling attack, and should be more versed in conditions which allow for plenty of runs to be scored once a start has been made.

The more life in this pitch, the better it will be for Australia, with their added pace able to make the most of the bounce on offer.

Even without the pitch for assistance though, Australia will win this.

Australia to regain the Ashes with ease

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