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Crows face another contract crunch, but they're built for sustained success

Expert
18th December, 2017
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Geelong Cats player James Kelly (back) tackles Adelaide Crows player Rory Sloane in round 23 of the AFL at Simonds Stadium in Geelong, Saturday, Sept. 5, 2015. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Expert
18th December, 2017
29
1805 Reads

It occurred to me a little while ago that I should probably finish off the list management series I started in September before the calendar ticks over to 2018 – only two teams are left, the pair that competed in the grand final.

So, my apologies if an article like this seems a bit out of place in the closing weeks of December. We’ll start with this year’s runners-up, the Adelaide Crows, and talk about the reigning premiers, the Richmond Tigers, later this week.

2017 in short

Look, you’re already pretty familiar with Adelaide’s 2017 season, I imagine – they were minor premiers for the first time in a while, made the grand final for the first time in a while after crushing GWS and Geelong, but ultimately proved to be no match for Richmond when push came to shove. I won’t force Crows fans to relive it in any more detail than that.

Coach

Don Pyke has been the coach of the Crows for two years now and so far you’d have to say his tenure has been very successful, even if the club fell short of winning its third premiership this year.

Pyke took over a list that was in a unique situation, due to the tragic death of Phil Walsh. It was a list that was ready to play finals and push towards premiership contention, and he has delivered that.

The one criticism you could put to Pyke at the moment would be a perceived lack of action to combat Richmond’s gameplan on grand final day.

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The Crows lost to the Tigers in much the same way that Geelong and GWS did before them, so it’s fair to ask the question of how much effort was put into preparing for the way Richmond played their finals campaign, and what moves were made in game when it became apparent that Adelaide were on the backfoot.

From the outside looking in, you could be forgiven for thinking there was little or nothing done. Time will tell if that’s indicative of a genuine concern with Pyke’s coaching, or just bad luck on one particularly rotten day.

Interestingly, Pyke is out of contract at the end of 2018 and hasn’t been extended yet. You wouldn’t think there’s any serious risk of him not coaching the Crows in 2019 from this vantage point though – expect an extension to be announced before Round 1.

Don Pyke Adelaide Crows AFL 2017

(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

Captain

Taylor Walker has skippered the Crows for three years now, after Phil Walsh put him in the job at the start of the 2015 season.

Purely on a results basis you’d have to say he’s done a fine job – the Crows have played three finals campaigns in those three years and have won four finals out of seven played in that time. They haven’t tasted the ultimate success, but plenty of clubs would kill for that kind of recent record.

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Walker has copped a bit of criticism since the grand final but just about anyone who captains a losing side there is going to, and the vast majority of it appears to be little more than schaudenfreude.

For all the claims that he went missing on the big stage, he did kick two goals – there were many far worse players in the red, navy and gold hoops on the day.

He has it in him to captain the club for a few more years at least and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t. It’ll be interesting to see who takes over the gig when he does pass it on – perhaps one of the Crouch brothers, or someone like Daniel Talia would be a chance.

Taylor Walker Adelaide Crows AFL Finals 2017

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

List management

The quality of the list that Adelaide has put together, particularly when you consider how few high draft picks they’ve had access to, is remarkable.

They’ve been a finals team more often than not in the past decade or so and that combined with penalties for overpaying Kurt Tippett, expansion concessions, academy bidding and trading away a higher pick once or twice means they’ve only had two top-ten draft picks since 2003, Patrick Dangerfield and Phil Davis, and they don’t have a single player that they’ve drafted inside the top ten who is still at the club.

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Bryce Gibbs, a former No.1 pick, is the only player on their list drafted in the top ten, and his presence there in 2018 will mark the first time that Adelaide have ever had a player on the list who was the No.1 draft pick.

Instead they’ve found talent in other ways. Their midfield lynchpin Rory Sloane is a pick 44. Broken Hill boy Taylor Walker came to the club as a NSW Scholarship player. Eddie Betts was a free agent (and he’s one of several players they’ve pinched off Carlton). Hugh Greenwood came to the list as a Category B rookie.

The exciting thing for the Crows is that the vast majority of their best talent is still in the prime of their careers. Guys like Eddie Betts (31), Richard Douglas (30) and Sam Jacobs (29) populate the veteran tier, but the middle class is star-studded.

Josh Jenkins, Bryce Gibbs (both 28), Rory Sloane, Taylor Walker, Tom T Lynch (all 27), Daniel Talia (26), Brodie Smith, Luke Brown and Hugh Greenwood (all 25) makes up a core group of middle-aged players who are all at their peak and will be for a little while longer yet.

Rory Sloane Adelaide Crows AFL Grand Final 2017 tall

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

What makes the list especially promising though is that there’s a group of players who are just about to join that group and really hit the peak of their playing powers in Rory Laird, Brad Crouch, Rory Atkins, Mitch McGovern (all 23) and Matt Crouch (22).

Below this Adelaide do have a few good prospects who haven’t seen much gametime yet. Reilly O’Brien (22), Wayne Milera (20), Jordan Gallucci (19) and Darcy Fogarty (18) are the four in particular that I’d be keeping an eye on.

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And of course in the 2018 draft next year they’ve already got their own first-round pick, Melbourne’s first round pick, and Carlton’s second-round pick – presumably three picks inside the first 25, perhaps the first 20.

The short version? Adelaide have talent all over the ground at the moment and that talent is spread well across their list. They’re set up perfectly to be a finals regular for years to come and they’ve done it with less currency available than your average AFL team.

Adelaide players by age
Sam Gibson – 31yr 6mth
Eddie Betts – 31yr
Richard Douglas – 30yr 10mth
Sam Jacobs – 29yr 7mth
David Mackay – 29yr 4mth
Josh Jenkins – 28yr 10mth
Byrce Gibbs – 28yr 8mth
Andy Otten – 28yr 6mth
Kyle Cheney – 28yr 3mth
Rory Sloane – 27yr 8mth
Taylor Walker – 27yr 7mth
Tom T Lynch – 27yr 2mth
Daniel Talia – 26yr 2mth
Kyle Hartigan – 26yr 1mth
Brodie Smith – 25yr 10mth
Alex Keath – 25yr 10mth
Paul Seedsman – 25yr 10mth
Hugh Greenwood – 25yr 9mth
Luke Brown – 25yr 2mth
Cam Ellis-Yolmen (R) – 24yr 10mth
Paul Hunter (R) – 24yr 10mth
Curtly Hampton – 24yr 8mth
Rory Laird – 23yr 11mth
Brad Crouch – 23yr 10mth
Rory Atkins – 23yr 4mth
Mitch McGovern – 23yr 1mth
Patrick Wilson (R) – 23yr
Jake Kelly – 22yr 10mth
Riley Knight – 22yr 8mth
Matt Crouch – 22yr 7mth
Reilly O’Brien – 22yr 3mth
Harry Dear – 21yr 3mth
Tom Doedee – 20yr 9mth
Ben Davis – 20yr 6mth
Wayne Milera – 20yr 2mth
Jordan Gallucci – 19yr 7mth
Ben Jarman (R) – 19yr 7mth
Elliot Himmelberg – 19yr 6mth
Myles Poholke – 19yr 4mth
Matthew Signorello – 19yr 1mth
Lachlan Murphy (R) – 19yr
Andrew McPherson – 18yr 5mth
Darcy Fogarty – 18yr 3mth
Jackson Edwards (R) – 18yr 2mth

Mitch McGovern Adelaide Crows AFL 2017 tall

(AAP Image/David Mariuz)

The only real criticism that could be levelled at Adelaide’s list perhaps is the lack of a truly generational, game-defining player.

While you’ll often hear that a champion team beats a team of champions, it’s worth noting that of the last 23 premiership-winning sides, 22 of them have had at least one player who scored the most votes on Brownlow night at some point in their career – the only exception being the Bulldogs of 2016, who had Marcus Bontempelli, so they might not be an exception very long.

That’s why the departure of genuinely elite talents like Patrick Dangerfield and more recently Jake Lever has cut them so deep.

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Indeed the one flaw in Adelaide’s system is that they seem to lose players much more often than they should.

Why does this happen? It’s a topic that a few people have taken a stab at but there doesn’t seem to be any defining answer that everyone agrees on.

The Crows offer about as much chance of success as any club in the league, plenty of opportunity to make a name for yourself in a town that loves footy, and don’t seem likely to have a salary cap so bloated as to deny players fair value in a contract.

There’s been some talk that maybe they are low-balling players a bit with the initial contract offers and that leads them to consider offers from other clubs in a way they wouldn’t have otherwise – to some degree that seems to have been the case with Jake Lever.

Part of me however feels like it may just be bad luck. Phil Davis and Nathan Bock were pinched in unusual circumstances by expansion clubs. Kurt Tippett got an offer that it would’ve been irresponsible to match. Patrick Dangerfield and Charlie Cameron just genuinely wanted to go home. Jack Gunston and Jake Lever both decided to leave early on and it’s not clear whether or not the Crows could’ve done any more to convince them to stay.

Some would say that where there’s smoke there is fire though and I don’t entirely disagree with that either. You can only have bad luck so long before it stops being luck. And the question of whether or not Adelaide really can retain talent is going to be put to the test in 2018 with seven significant talents out of contract.

Rory Sloane, Matt Crouch, Rory Laird, Tom T Lynch, Rory Atkins, Brodie Smith and Jordan Gallucci are all out of contract at the end of 2018. Sloane and Smith will be free agents.

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Matt Crouch Adelaide Crows AFL 2017

(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

Richard Douglas and David Mackay will be free agents too, but they would be very long odds to move, for reasons of age alone.

The other seven, however – none of them are players right now who you would say are more likely to leave than stay, but that would be true of Jake Lever at this time 12 months ago also.

There was talk for example about Rory Sloane during this trade period but it’s hard to say how reputable it really was.

He’d arguably be the biggest potential loss in terms of player quality, but I’d say also the most likely to stay if only because he would be 29 by the start of the 2019 season and there won’t be many if any Victorian clubs in a position to justify bringing him in.

That’s less the case for a young All-Australian calibre star like Matt Crouch or Rory Laird though so they should be Adelaide’s highest priorities to re-sign.

Adelaide will certainly re-sign the vast majority of them, perhaps all of them, and likely at least a few of those re-signings will be announced before the 2018 season even begins – but it wouldn’t surprise if one or two slip through the cracks.

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That perhaps will be telling as to the eternal question of just what it is – if anything – that Adelaide do wrong when it comes to keeping talent on the list. Or perhaps it will be just another chapter. Either way, watch this space.

Rory Laird

(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

Adelaide players by contract status
2021
Bryce Gibbs
Josh Jenkins
Daniel Talia
Taylor Walker

2020
Eddie Betts
Luke Brown
Brad Crouch
Kyle Hartigan
Mitch McGovern
Wayne Milera
Myles Poholke

2019
Tom Doedee
Darcy Fogarty
Hugh Greenwood
Sam Jacobs
Alex Keath
Jake Kelly
Riley Knight
Andrew McPherson
Reilly O’Brien

2018
Rory Atkins
Kyle Cheney
Matt Crouch
Ben Davis
Harry Dear
Richard Douglas
Jackson Edwards (R)
Cam Ellis-Yolmen (R)
Jordan Gallucci
Sam Gibson
Elliot Himmelberg
Paul Hunter (R)
Ben Jarman (R)
Rory Laird
Tom T Lynch
David Mackay
Lachlan Murphy (R)
Andy Otten
Rory Sloane
Brodie Smith
Matthew Signorello
Patrick Wilson (R)

Unconfirmed
Curtly Hampton
Paul Seedsman

Delistings and retirements

Scott Thompson retired this year after being largely anonymous in 2017, though it won’t be a blemish of any kind on his commendable 308-game career.

Troy Menzel, Dean Gore and Jono Beech were all delisted – Menzel in particular it is a shame to see fail to make the grade after some freakishly good moments in his early career at Carlton.

Dean Gore finishes up having never played an AFL game, known only for being the steak knives in the Patrick Dangerfield trade.

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Looking ahead to next year, David Mackay and Richard Douglas will be the ones to keep an eye on as to whether or not they decide to play on, while Sam Gibson will hope to cement himself at his new club and earn a contract to play there in 2019 and beyond.

Kyle Cheney faces an uphill battle to keep his career alive after only narrowly being given a new contract for 2018, but has a chance to crack into the side in Jake Lever’s spot.

Free agency

There wasn’t any movement on the free agency front for the Crows this year – they took a bit of a shot at Steven Motlop but it seems Port Adelaide very much had the inside track on them.

Rory Sloane, Brodie Smith, David Mackay and Richard Douglas will all be free agents for them next year if not re-signed before the list is released.

Smith will likely be a restricted free agent, but all of Sloane, Mackay and Douglas will be unrestricted free agents.

Trade period

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Adelaide were one of the more active clubs in the trade period – losing Jake Lever and Charlie Cameron (and finding a new home for Harrison Wigg), but picking up Bryce Gibbs and Sam Gibson, moving up from pick 16 to 12 in 2017, gaining Melbourne’s first rounder for 2018, and swapping their 2018 second rounder for Carlton’s.

Bryce Gibbs Sam Gibson Adelaide Crows AFL

(Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)

It was a trade period that had a significant impact on the age of their list, losing three young players for two veterans, but that will be balanced out to some degree next year with three top 20 or 25 draft picks to be brought into the club.

I gave them an A in my trade period report card and I stand by it. While it was a shame to lose the players they did, they extracted the maximum value in return for them, and while they paid more than Bryce Gibbs is worth, it was a deal they arguably needed to do to stay in the 2018 premiership mix.

Draft

Darcy Fogarty and Andrew McPherson joined Adelaide in the draft, with Fogarty in particular shaping up as one to follow.

He was considered a chance to go as high as pick 4 by some and if not, still likely a top six selection, but Collingwood’s decision to overlook him for Jaidyn Stephenson saw him slide down the order.

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St Kilda, the Western Bulldogs, Carlton and GWS all still went with their expected picks, meaning he was available at the Crows’ first selection.

Fogarty’s talent was such good value there that the Crows might have taken him no matter where he hails from – the fact he just happens to be a South Australian is a sweetener on top.

They took another local boy in McPherson with their second pick, leading some to think that South Australians could be a focus for them in years to come, and no doubt that will be true to some degree.

That said, they would certainly have taken an interstate player had Fogarty not been available at their pick, so it might be too early to read too much into what was probably largely a happy coincidence.

Looking far too soon at next year’s draft, as said they’ll have three picks fairly early in the piece – however, if both the Crows and Demons do well then they’re likely to be in the teens and 20s rather than the top 10.

Key forward Jack Lukosius and midfielder Izak Rankine are two South Australian prospects who project – at this very early stage – as possible top ten selections, and if things pan out that way it will be interesting to see if the Crows consider packaging multiple picks together to move up targetting one of them.

Outlook

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Something that crops up fairly often looking at lists the way I have in this series is that a club will have one age bracket where talent is just a bit sparse.

Typically this happens because clubs go through periods where their priorities differ – some years they invest heavily in the draft, some years they burn draft picks to bring in mature players.

This is actually one of my biggest personal bugbears – personally, I reckon many potentially good teams have ruined their chances of experiencing sustained success by selling draft picks for mature players in order to push for sooner success rather than playing the patient, sustainable game (though that’s not to say there aren’t some teams who have gone down the road and had it pay off big time, ala Hawthorn).

And of course, sometimes clubs just have periods of time where they do a hack job of drafting, or lose draft picks to penalties, or see multiple players walk out the door.

Adelaide have actually copped their fair whack of the latter two, which makes it all the more remarkable that their list is in the good shape it is.

They’ve been patient with their list build and they’ve continued to invest in the draft even when also making big plays in the trade and free agency market.

As a result they have a beautifully well-balanced list which in my opinion has no significant gaps either in an on-field sense or in terms of the age brackets.

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They have talent of all shapes, sizes and ages, and if they can continue to deliver on that talent in the same way they have over the last two years – and re-sign the majority of it – then I see no reason why they shouldn’t consistently make finals for the forseeable future.

Whether they can convert that into a premiership somewhere along the way I suspect will depend somewhat on the ability of their stars to really go to the next level.

Can Taylor Walker lift his output to be amongst the absolute very best key forwards in the game? Can Eddie Betts deny the clock and continue to dominate? Can a Rory Sloane and Bryce Gibbs partnership provide the Crows with the midfield might they need to take on the Dustins and the Dangerfields?

Only time will tell but, as hard as it is to do so after the year ended the way it did, Adelaide fans deserve to feel optimistic.

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