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England face Boxing Day thrashing

18th December, 2017
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Josh Hazlewood was superb all series. (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
Expert
18th December, 2017
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Having already lost the Ashes 3-0, England could be forgiven for thinking there’s no bad news left. But there is: The pitch for the next Test at the MCG is likely to be flat, again favouring Australia greatly.

While there was constant talk prior to this Ashes about the prospect of Australia’s express quicks running amok on hard, fast pitches, it is in fact on flat decks where the home team have the greatest advantage over England.

We saw as much in the last Ashes in England where Australia destroyed the hosts in the two Tests played on batting-friendly surfaces, winning by 405 runs, and an innings and 46 runs.

In this current series, the gulf between the teams widened over the course of the Perth Test, which featured a pitch overflowing with runs. The rare ability of Australia’s quicks to squeeze every last portion of pace and bounce out of such a surface led the hosts to a whopping win by an innings and 41 runs.

The home pacemen had the English batsmen swaying and ducking and fending and retreating. The English quicks, by comparison, were utterly pedestrian, with their star new ball pair James Anderson and Stuart Broad going wicket-less until Australia already had 549 runs on the board.

As has so often been the case in recent Australian summers, the pitch is a road only so long as the home side aren’t bowling. Then wickets tumble. It’s an odd advantage for Australia to have.

Historically England have flourished on green, seaming pitches, Asian sides have been in their element on dry, turning tracks, and Australia were at their best on rock hard decks.

Nowadays Australia are like Lewis Hamilton – unbeatable on a road. Unfortunately for England, that’s exactly what the MCG is these days, a road. It’s been that way since the last Ashes.

Mitch Starc

(AAP Image/Richard Wainwright)

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In the three Boxing Day Tests since then, Australia have made first innings totals of 530, 3-551 declared, and 8-624d.

That’s ominous for England, given they just allowed Australia to make 9-662 on a WACA pitch which offered more help to the quicks than any of those past three MCG Test pitches. The only England bowler who defied the batting-friendly conditions consistently was rookie fast bowler Craig Overton, and he’s expected to miss the fourth Test due to a cracked rib.

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That would leave a floundering English attack even weaker. If the MCG pitch is even close to as flat as it has been in recent years, I cannot see how England will possibly take 20 wickets. That’s without factoring in the savage blow to their confidence which was delivered over the past few days.

To bat first and be 4-362 on a great batting strip, with two centurions at the crease, only to lose by an innings is the kind of loss which can tear a team apart. Joe Root faces a major leadership challenge to keep his side from splintering and playing the blame game.

The worst part for England is that, as I wrote yesterday, the four players they rely on most heavily – Root, Anderson, Broad and Alastair Cook – are all struggling badly

Bowling the way they have this series, neither Broad nor Anderson is likely to have a significant impact at the MCG. Cook, meanwhile, has long been a bunny against Australia. Root, with his expansive batting talents, is the one member of that key quartet who looks capable of producing a dominant display.

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England’s best hope of competing strongly at the MCG is to bat first, bat long and put Australia under the kind of scoreboard pressure they should have encountered at the WACA. God help England if Australia bat first on an MCG highway.

That will precipitate another lopsided result and place Australia within one SCG victory of yet another 5-0 Ashes whitewash.

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