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Who should open with David Warner in South Africa?

Steve Squires new author
Roar Rookie
3rd January, 2018
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I was saying Boo-urns. (AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
Steve Squires new author
Roar Rookie
3rd January, 2018
66
1153 Reads

With the Ashes won and the whitewash out of play, Australia’s Test selectors can now look ahead to the South Africa Test tour, with the 1st Test starting on 1 March.

The upcoming four-Test series is Australia’s first series of more than three Tests against South Africa since their reinstatement to world cricket in 1991; a long time coming after several entertaining and hard-fought series over the past 25 years.

This is the first of three articles, each of which will address selection questions.

3. Who should open the batting with David Warner?
4. Who should bat at 6, aka does the XI require an allrounder?
5. Who is Australia’s fourth best, fully fit, pace bowler?

The Ashes has helped settle two important questions at least for the next series or two.

1. Who should be the wicketkeeper?
Tim Paine has done enough during The Ashes to be retained for South Africa.

2. Is Shaun Marsh too old or not good enough to be in the Test team?
No, not on current form, which is career-best. He should be selected.

Each of the unresolved questions appear to have three or four candidates ahead of the rest, and it’s quite likely that two of each of these candidates can be included in the tour party.

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The squad is unlikely to include a second spinner, given Lyon’s form, and that one wasn’t taken on the 2013-14 tour.

The selectors will likely get to watch only one more Shield round (8-11 February) before naming a 16-man squad.

Form is hard to assess on a one Shield game sample size. I’m sure the selectors will look at January’s ODI performances (for Australia reps such as Mitch Marsh), and, dangerously, BBL games to judge a player’s form.

Instead of the BBL and ODIs, the selectors would be better off using career statistics, and considering anticipated conditions, along with FC and Test statistics from the first half of the summer.

The contenders
Joe Burns has a Test average of 38 and averaged 57 across ten Sheffield Shield innings this summer. He has batted himself back into contention as a Test opener and is versatile, having batted in the middle order for state and country.

He is more attacking than Cameron Bancroft and Matt Renshaw, which includes turning the strike over more, scoring 17 per cent more runs per 100 balls from 1s, 2s, and 3s, than Bancroft and Renshaw.

While Bancroft had the superior early Shield form and deservedly won selection for The Ashes, it’s fair to say he hasn’t quite lived up to hopes, averaging 29.8 through 4 matches.

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Excluding his blameless run-out in Adelaide, his average rises to an unconvincing 33.8, however he has made several promising starts and looked composed throughout.

Technique-wise, he tends to fall over a bit, trapping him LBW twice. This may be even more of an issue in less bouncy or swinging conditions, like those in England, but at least Bancroft is playing regular county cricket and is young enough to improve this.

Whether he is able to improve between now and South Africa is more doubtful.

To be fair on Bancroft, England’s opening bowlers are a strong duo, with James Anderson ranked the ICCs No. 1 Test bowler, and Stuart Broad still a top 15 bowler, despite mediocre 2017 form. With these quality opening bowers, England have a stronger attack than, say, the Pakistan bowlers which Renshaw plundered for 71 and 184 last summer.

England’s third, fourth, and fifth bowlers have been a weak point aside from Craig Overton’s pre-injury performance and Chris Woakes under lights in Adelaide.

Joe Burns’ highest Test score is 170, made in Christchurch, against the Kiwis’ Neil Wagner (now ranked 7th by ICC), Trent Boult (12th) and Tim Southee (16th). In context, it’s a hugely impressive performance against a quality pace attack in foreign conditions.

His maiden Test century, in his first match as an opener, was a second innings knock against New Zealand at the ‘Gabba. These were friendly home conditions but amply demonstrated the ability to bat with David Warner, sharing in 161-run and 237-run opening stands in that match.

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Burns provides a right-left combination with David Warner, as does Bancroft.

Renshaw must surely have slipped to third in the pecking order to partner Warner. He will hopefully re-discover form and confidence in the second half of the Shield season.

Youngsters like Jake Weatherald (averaging 45.7 this season) and Marcus Harris (45.9) have performed well this summer but are not Test-ready.

Joe Burns Cameron Bancroft Matt Renshaw Ed Cowan
Innings as Test opener 19 7 18 29
Runs as Test opener 727 179 623 963
Average as Test opener 38.26 29.83 36.64 33.2
Strike rate as Test opener 56.9 40.5 43.8 41.2
Innings per 50+ as Test opener 3.8 7 4.5 4.14
Runs from 4s and 6s/100 balls 32.2 19.5 22.6 20.2
Runs from 1s, 2s, 3s / 100 balls 24.6 21 21.2 21
FC average 2017/18 (inc. Test) 57.11 62.1 16.66 46.33
Career FC average 40.05 39.26 35 42.26
FC inns per 50+ 3.3 4.4 5 3.6

Left field options
The other opener who deserves consideration is Ed Cowan. It’s extremely unlikely that the selectors will pick him, but given Tim Paine was picked for the Ashes, nothing can be ruled out. Cowan has Test match experience and averages a respectable 42 in First Class cricket, higher than all other Shield openers.

His age (35) counts against him, but has proved no barrier to recalling Shaun Marsh (34) for the Ashes, nor Chris Rogers (played his second Test at 35) and Adam Voges (debuted at 35) who all performed well in recent years.

If Cowan is granted the opportunity to open and scores a century for NSW in their next Shield match, while others struggle, then it becomes remotely feasible.

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I haven’t considered promoting Usman Khawaja or Shaun Marsh to open. Nor do I think dropping Khawaja is a sensible option.

Khawaja must be locked in at three for the South Africa series despite a disappointing Ashes because he has proven over several years to be our third best batsmen in Test cricket (by average and total runs) and generally deals with pace bowling very effectively – this is not a tour to the subcontinent.

Two Ashes fifties from six innings is not a terrible return, but you feel he needs to make a good score at the SCG for his own confidence, otherwise, there’s one more Shield game to lock himself in.

Sadly, there is a dearth of proven long-form batsmen in Australian cricket and Khawaja has shown in the last three years to be a class above Shield cricket, though faltering against good spinners.

Given South Africa has four pace bowlers in the top 15 of the ICC rankings and a spinner in the top 20, there will be no sterner examination of a player’s technique.

The opening partnership will be crucial to Australia’s chances in this series.

As such, I would select Joe Burns and Cameron Bancroft in the touring squad and unless Bancroft makes a significant score beforehand, even in a tour game, then Burns should be in the first Test XI in South Africa, despite his dual failures in Hobart during 2016.

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