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The South needs to worry - the North is coming fast

4th January, 2018
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Michael Cheika's got to go. (Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
Expert
4th January, 2018
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As we’ve reached the end of 2017 and 2018 has kicked off the inevitable annual reviews come flooding in – so here’s another one to add to the deluge.

Rather than reviewing a specific team though, let’s take the opportunity to review the ongoing struggle between hemispheres for global domination.

For a long time, it’s felt like the major players of the Southern Hemisphere have claimed the crown. While New Zealand have often led the way, it’s been the trio of the Wallabies, Springboks and All Blacks combined that has put fear into teams from the north for many years. More recently they have been backed up by the powerful Pumas.

The World Cup of 2015 was a strong demonstration of the South’s domination – not a single northern hemisphere side made the semi-finals, not even the host nation of England – the rugby nation with arguably the biggest budgets and most well established infrastructure to grow a successful international team.

Two years on and with half a world cup cycle complete it’s interesting to see whether this has changed. Fortunately the recent international clashes have provided a useful laboratory to run a few Tests and review the latest in the ongoing North versus South struggle.

For this comparison the focus will be on the top six teams from each hemisphere that have been competing. For the North these are England, France, Ireland, Scotland, Wales and Italy. For the South we’ll include Australia, Argentina, New Zealand, Fiji, Samoa and South Africa.

During the October tours this is how the results have panned out:

North played 18, won 10 lost 7, draw 1 – win per centage 55 per cent
South played 16, won 7, lost 9 – win percentage 44 per cent

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New Zealand, Ireland and England all went through their respective series of three matches unbeaten while France, Samoa and Fiji were all unable to get one victory on the board.

simon-zebo-ireland-rugby-union-2016

(AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)

So the data shows the North achieved better results, they are the better rugby hemisphere – done and dusted. Let’s get on with the New Year diet that lasts til lunch and the Super Rugby pre season talk.

But of course that’s not the full story is it? Yes the Northern Hemisphere teams have won more games than their Southern rivals in these recent series but they have also had the home advantage.

On the other hand many of the Southern Hemisphere teams have had the benefits of coming off the back of a Rugby Championship to get their rhythm and combinations working smoothly.

Let’s add some more data to the comparison set and see what happens. Looking back at the internationals between these twelve sides since the World Cup we see the following.

June – July 2017 (inc Lions tour of NZ)
Matches played in the Southern Hemisphere
13 played
5 Northern wins (38%)
7 Southern wins (54%)
1 draw

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Nov – Dec 2016
Matches played in the Northern Hemisphere
17 played
11 Northern wins (65%)
6 Southern wins (35%)

June – July 2016
Matches played in the Southern Hemisphere
12 played
5 Northern wins (42%)
7 Southern wins (58%)

Totals since January 2016
60 matches played (25 in Southern Hemisphere locations, 35 in the North)
31 Northern wins (52%)
27 Southern wins (45%)
2 draws

Following a World Cup in late 2015 where the Northern teams were notably absent from the business end of the tournament, they seem to have been able to turn things around – two years of rugby and four more wins over their Southern rivals.

During this time the Kiwis only lost twice to a Northern team so the remaining 25 losses came from the rest of the bunch including the traditionally strong Australia and South Africa. There could be several reasons for this change in trend – was this indicative of how the strategies of such teams as the Wallabies, Boks and Pumas had been focused on performing at the World Cup but hadn’t factored in what to do after the tournament?

Was it a sign of scarier problems with the underlying foundations of these nation’s rugby structures that would inevitably come out at the international level eventually?

Cheika

(Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)

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It’s important to note though that while the Northern teams are experiencing a period where they are winning more matches over their Southern rivals, they are only winning four more matches than the South across a two year period despite having ten more games at home.

So it’s fair to say that the North are achieving a good amount of success – they are winning more games against the Southern teams, they have two of the top three teams in the world, and three of the top five.

Of course none of this matters if, come the semi-finals of Japan 2019, the same Southern domination wins through as was seen in 2015. There are many sub plots behind all of these numbers including the debates that are raging on this site about whether Cheika needs to resign now or carry on to Japan.

But the North are getting their houses in order and as well as having talent and depth in their playing groups, seem to have strong coaches and infrastructures to back up those players. That’s the kind of combination that leads to success and trophies.

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