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Why Michael Cheika may have to choose between David Pocock and Michael Hooper in 2018

9th January, 2018
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David Pocock is better than Mike Hooper. Simple. (AP Photo/Matt Dunham)
Expert
9th January, 2018
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8063 Reads

They say the only two certainties in life are death and taxes. Here’s another, rather more contemporary rugby truth: David Pocock will be welcomed back to Australia with open arms in 2018.

‘Poey’s’ broad-mindedness and gravitas off the field and his play on it have both been sorely missed, despite the excellent form of Sean McMahon with the Wallabies.

It is perhaps a little too typical of the modern era that, just as one returns from his sojourn in Japanese club rugby, the other will offer him a metaphorical wave while passing the other way.

Although Pocock’s return will be an unqualified blessing for both regional and international rugby in Australia, it will also revive a selection dilemma for Michael Cheika and his coaching group which may not prove as easy to solve as it once was.

The issue is Australia’s best two forwards both happen to play in the same position, at number seven. In the recent past, that problem has been resolved simply by selecting both of them in the same back-row, with Pocock shifting across to eighth man.

For much of the time, that arrangement has worked out pretty well, but the experimental law changes currently being trialled in the Northern Hemisphere may have brought with them a dark cloud on the horizon of the ‘Pooper’.

I first highlighted the trial laws back in September 2016, and recently added a look at their effects on the breakdown in the recent Wales-South Africa match from December.

The most significant of the revisions are the changes to law at and after the tackle, which now states that:

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  • The tackler must get up before playing the ball and then can only play from their own side of the tackle “gate”. (15.4.c)
  • A ruck commences when at least one player is on their feet and over the ball which is on the ground (16).

Both of these laws favour the attacking side, which can now create an offside line at the tackle immediately without any defender being present. Tacklers who want to compete for the ball on the ground can now no longer do so without retiring first through ‘the gate’ on their side of the tackle area.

It would mean that this kind of turnover (by David Pocock at the 2015 World Cup) would now be refereed as a clear penalty to the attacking team:

‘Poey’ would now have to go the long way round before he could even think of contesting this ball on the deck.

As indicated in the 2016 article, the effectiveness of Hooper and Pocock defensively has depended on their ability to ‘tackle and jackal’ as a hunting pair. One of them makes a low tackle and cuts the ball-carrier down, the other goes in and competes for the ball.

With the pair positioned together at scrums, lineouts and restarts, they accounted for the lion’s share of Wallaby turnovers.

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Perhaps the best low forward tackler in the international game, Welsh flanker Dan Lydiate, cannot now get a game for the national side, and the Wales-South Africa match showed how the attitude of the Wales defence coach Shaun Edwards had changed with the trial laws.

Now it’s less a case of ‘tackle and jackal’ and more one of ‘prop up and fan out’ – hold the ball-carrier up and then drop back into the defensive line while you’re still on your feet.

This was definitely England’s policy too, in their end of year game against Australia at Twickenham:

As Will Genia goes to pass (with Maro Itoje in the process of getting up off the ground) everyone in the England defence is on their feet while there are three Australians off theirs, having been consumed at the ruck.

It would be reasonable to say the odds of the attack succeeding on the next phase have been reduced by anywhere between 13 and 20 per cent as a consequence.

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England also managed to generate more turnovers with their new methods than the Wallabies did with the old. Australia garnered two turnovers, one off a Sean McMahon jackal above Johnny May in the 22nd minute, the other off a dominant tackle by Marika Koroibete and counter-ruck over the top of Owen Farrell. In both cases, both Hooper and McMahon (Pocock’s replacement at number eight) are playing together in the same area:

While Australia were still trying to win their turnovers on the deck, England won theirs by disrupting the ball while it was still above ground. Their big men up front – Dylan Hartley, Dan Cole, Joe Launchbury, and Nathan Hughes especially – all used high-tackle, ball-rip techniques well-suited to the new laws.

Hughes used the power of a frontal hit to force a Rob Simmons fumble:

England captain Hartley looked to have developed a sneaky technique where he pulled the main carrying arm away from the ball before the runner hit the ground – here on Reece Hodge:

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Next on Sean McMahon:

And finally on Simmons close to the England goal-line:

Maro Itoje also contributed via a fumble forced out of Kurtley Beale by the same method in the second half:

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All the indications are that the new laws – if they have a successful Super Rugby trial and are introduced permanently thereafter – will change the game radically at the tackle area.

Gone will be the days of low tackling, particularly in the forwards, and the opportunities for a specialist jackal to fold in over the ball on the ground will be greatly reduced. The movement will be towards the selection of bigger men in the back-row, players who can stay on their feet, hold up the ball-carrier and rip at the ball or the carrying arm.

The days of the ‘Pooper’ as a defensive weapon may, therefore, be numbered, and Michael Cheika may find himself in a position he does not enjoy in the least – having to make a choice between Australia’s two best forwards, with one probably starting on the bench.

The trial laws also will impact back-row ball-carrying. If defenders can be expected to be larger, and more powerful in their attempts to hold the runner-up off the ground, it places a premium on ball-carriers who can make yards after contact and keep their momentum going.

This is, of course, an area in which Sean McMahon excels:

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For all his other virtues, David Pocock does not have this kind of dynamism on the drive, or anything like it.

Summary
Australia have depended in the Michael Cheika era on the inclusion of two number sevens with the ability to compete for the ball on the floor, with an emphasis on low tackling to bring the ball-carrier to earth quickly to create the opportunities for them.

Primarily it has been Michael Hooper and David Pocock, latterly it has been Hooper and Sean McMahon with Pocock away on sabbatical.

That may be about to change with the new trial laws at the tackle area in place for Super Rugby 2018.

The tackler has been largely ruled out as a jackal because he can no longer get up and play at the ball from any angle, so responsibility falls upon the first man in to compete on the ground.

In the Northern Hemisphere, the trials have led teams at both international and club level to concentrate on picking bigger players in the back-row, defenders who can hold the ball-carrier up and attack the ball while he is still upright.

Runners who can survive the first contact and maintain their leg drive in high tackle are also becoming premium players.

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The ‘Pooper’ does not fit the bill on either account, so the odds are that Michael Cheika will face the most critical decision of his career to date as an Australian selector in 2018. What will he do?

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