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The Victory shouldn't be this mediocre, should they?

Besart Berisha of Victory reacts after a near miss shot at goals, during the round 2 A-League match between Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City, at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne, Saturday, October 14, 2017. (AAP Image/Joe Castro)
Expert
12th January, 2018
34

Played 15, won five, drawn five, lost five, 20 goals scored, 21 goals conceded. Sitting in fifth on 20 points, Melbourne Victory are as close to bottom-placed Wellington as they are to second-placed Newcastle.

The Victory are drifting through this season like a ship buffeted from either side by opposing winds, keeping them from making telling progress in either direction, an odd – and, the longer it goes on, frustrating – suspension in the doldrums.

The generous nature of the top-six finals format means they are still on course for post-season football, but last night’s defeat to the Phoenix prevented them from jumping up into fourth ahead of Adelaide.

The suspicion that the Victory would ‘wake up’, as it were, has floated away over the glassy waters. Yes, their winless run to begin the season was hugely under-representative of their actual strength as a team this season, but there is still something wrong with Kevin Muscat’s team, or indeed with Kevin Muscat. They shouldn’t be this mediocre. 

A run of three straight wins in December, consecutive results that propelled them to third on the table, has been followed by back-to-back winless games against to two of the league’s bottom three clubs. The Victory aren’t generally in the business of ending others clubs’ winless streaks, but they did so for the Phoenix, losing 2-1 to a team that hadn’t tasted the sweet ambrosial nectar of success since early November.

(AAP Image/SNPA, Ross Setford)

The Nix needed 30 shots to score their two goals, having gone down 1-0 to a shorthanded Victory who had seen Rhys Williams sent off – eventually thanks to the video assistant referee and via a peculiar process that I’ve neither the energy nor appetite to discuss – for a last-man foul on Andrija Kaludjerovic. In the end it was a mistake from Melbourne’s Lawrence Thomas and an own-goal that scratched out the Nix’s second win of the season.

Marco Rojas’ departure was always going to be a difficult thing to make up, but Leroy George, currently one of the most productive attackers in the league, is about as good a compensation plan as could have been expected. The Dutchman leads the league in assists (seven – or eight, according to Fox Sports) and is second in chances created (48). He has played more balls into the box than any other player and is the fourth-most fouled person in the division. He’s also scored three goals.

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George is one of the league’s most active and potent attackers, just as Rojas was last season. If that’s not a like-for-like, then it’s pretty darn close, at least metrically.

Who else did the Victory lose over the offseason and how have their replacements fared? Well, Mark Milligan is a definite upgrade on Rashid Mahazi, and the aforementioned Williams, recent decision-making notwithstanding, is probably an upgrade on Alan Baro, who also left.

Kosta Barbarouses has filled Fahid Ben Khalfallah’s role, and to great effect of late too – the Kiwi has scored or assisted four of the Victory’s last six goals – and Thomas Deng’s return has added to the defensive cohort.

(AAP Image/Joe Castro)

These last three imports have all been Victory players before. As far as the adjustment process goes, theirs should have been relatively simple. 

Last season the Victory were in fourth place or higher in ten of the opening 15 rounds. This season they’ve been in the top four for one solitary week before slipping right back out.

The inability of James Troisi to impact games in the same tangible manner he did last season is also an area of slight concern – although he is equal-first in the league for secondary assists, implying a higher degree of effectiveness further back in the attacking play. Besart Berisha is still scoring at a respectable rate, with six goals in 13 appearances. 

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The defence is another story. The Victory have allowed more total shots to be taken against them than any other team and so, in related news, have registered more blocks than any other team. Thomas is also second in saves made among A-League goalkeepers.

On the other hand they rank in the middle for the metrics that indicate pressing: passes pressured, break-ups and interceptions. They also foul more often than any other team, and only Central Coast have suffered more red cards this season. A willingness to allow shots to fly in, a propensity to foul often and a certain middling sluggishness when it comes to the business of pressing and harrying all makes for a ho-hum defensive system. 

(AAP Image/Joe Castro)

Having seen the Phoenix score their go-ahead goal in the 83rd minute Kevin Muscat, who was preparing to substitute Berisha before the goal, decided it would still be wise under the new circumstances to remove his striker and send on defensive midfielder Stefan Nigro.

Needless to say, in hindsight this was an odd decision and sticks out now as fairly emblematic of Muscat’s reluctance or inability to make on-the-fly adjustments in-game. When his system is clearly offering up a result that is less than the sum of its parts why persist stodgily with it, especially when matches so audibly call for sudden changes? His candidacy as the national team coach has withered away over the last few months. 

The Victory are 18 points behind Sydney FC, the team they pretty well kept admirable pace with for much of last season and lost only narrowly to in the grand final. They won’t catch Sydney in the regular season this year – no team will – but there is still plenty of time for them to make up ground on the other teams above them. They’ll have to rig up the sails, with all hands on deck, to push through those flanking winds though, and that will mean ripping themselves out of their current middling form.

I’m still convinced they have the talent and energy to do it. At least I think I am.

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