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With just 12 games of the Big Bash League to play before we hit the semi-finals on February 1 and 2, and even though the table looks like we’re in for a tight run home to the finals, it will actually be pretty cut and dry in the end.
Perth, Adelaide, the Melbourne Renegades, Brisbane and Hobart are the five teams with a genuine shot of finishing in the top four, but that will become four within the next week.
The Sydney Thunder, sitting two points behind Hobart and with only two games to play, cannot make it as far as my predictions and guesstimations have worked out.
Currently first and second, Perth and Adelaide will sew up home semi-finals with two more wins each and finish in those same positions. The Scorchers play Hobart and Adelaide at the WACA in their remaining two games, and they’ve got the squad and the momentum to win both.
The Strikers have three games to come: Hobart at home, followed by the Renegades and Perth away. They stuttered in Alice Springs against Perth on the weekend, but they can win their first two games before dropping their final game to Perth (again).
I’m going to come back to the third-placed Melbourne Renegades for reasons that will become obvious soon enough, and skip to fourth-placed Brisbane. The Heat also have three games to play, and though I think they’ll lose the first of them, to the Hurricanes in Hobart, they can win the final two games over the Sydney Sixers (away) and Renegades. This will take them to 12 points, which will have them finish third or fourth.
Hobart have won four on the trot now, and are one of two teams with four games to play, which is a huge help for their chances. Currently on eight points, it’s likely the Hurricanes will also finish on 12 points: they’ll beat Brisbane at home, then lose two on the road to Adelaide and Perth, before putting the final nail in the Melbourne Stars’ season at the MCG. And twelve points will be enough for them to finish fourth (or maybe third), because…
The Renegades won’t will win another game, and thus will finish outside the top four. The way they struggled against the Stars the other night without Aaron Finch, Cameron White, and then Brad Hodge was worrying, and even though they’ll the latter back, they just don’t look like a winning team. They’re set to drop all three remaining games against Adelaide, the Sydney Thunder, and Brisbane, and will stay on eight points.
(AAP Image/David Crosling)
The Thunder will also finish on eight points by my calculations, dropping the first game to come against the Stars, before beating the Renegades in Canberra to finish what has been a disappointing season.
The Stars have been ordinary for the most part this season, and as funny as it would be to see them beaten in the semis again, they won’t have to worry about playing in February. They can win the first two of their remaining four games – against the two Sydneys, both at home – before dropping their last two against the Sixers (away) and Hobart. This would get them to six points and a seventh-place finish.
Which just leaves the Sixers, who I’ve only got pencilled in for one more win this season; their second remaining game against the Stars. A wooden spoon would be about right, for how they’ve played this season, too.
Final predicted BBL table: PERTH 16, ADELAIDE 14, BRISBANE 12, HOBART 12; Melbourne Renegades 8, Sydney Thunder 8, Melbourne Stars 6, Sydney Sixers 4.
The Sydney Sixers have finally broken their duck, toppling the Sydney Thunder in the return leg of the Sydney Smash on Saturday night. It means the Big Bash League table looks like this.
PERTH 12, ADELAIDE 10, MELBOURNE RENEGADES 8, BRISBANE 8; Hobart 8, Sydney Thunder 6, Sydney Sixers 2, Melbourne Stars 2.
Monday – Game 29: Hobart Hurricanes vs Brisbane Heat, Bellerive Oval: I’d only last week mentioned how tight Hurricanes-Heat games always seem to be, and now that they’ve won the first game in Brisbane, the ‘Canes can win the return leg at Bellerive, too.
They haven’t lost D’Arcy Short to international duty (yet), and they’re another team now preferring to bat first. Brisbane, without Chris Lynn again, just look a little vulnerable.
Tip – Hurricanes. They’re on a massive roll now.
Tuesday – Game 30: Melbourne Stars vs Sydney Sixers, MCG: Only a few days ago, this would’ve been a game I wouldn’t have worried about, but now that both teams have won a game, there is a bit of interest to see what they do with their sudden one-game winning streaks.
The Stars still look a lot better team on paper, but Joe Denly and Carlos Brathwaite have definitely made the Sixers stronger, too. But there is something to play for: this game probably decides the BBL07 wooden-spoon – which I’ve already pencilled in for the Sixers.
Tip – Honestly, you could flip a coin. Stars at home, probably.
(AAP Image/Richard Wainwright)
Wednesday – Game 31: Adelaide Strikers vs Hobart Hurricanes: After falling in a heap in the Red Centre, I’ve got this as the first step on the way for the Strikers to book their home semi. They’re still a formidable side at the Adelaide Oval in front of a big and vocal home crowd, and this gives them a big boost here. Both times now prefer batting first, so the toss could be really interesting.
Tip – The Strikers really need to win this to start their finals tune-up properly.
Thursday – Game 32: Sydney Sixers vs Brisbane Heat, SCG: By my rough guesses, this will be the game that starts Brisbane’s run to third place on the final standings, and even though they look vulnerable at the moment, I’m banking on them having found a way to get on with life without Lynn.
And there’s no better way to tune up for the semis than against the Sixers. Brendon McCullum and coach Daniel Vettori won’t let the Heat take pink-Sydney easy.
Tip – I’m not convinced the Sixers’ win over the Thunder was a sign of imminent turnaround; Heat.
For those silly enough to be following my tips this summer, you’ll know I’m 15 from 28 going into this block of games. Come for the opinions, stay for the quality tipping!