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The two halves of Adam Zampa’s ODI career contrast starkly. In his first 14 matches, the young Australian leg-spinner took 26 wickets at an average of 23, but in the second half he’s taken only 14 wickets at 52.
Just as alarming is the way his economy rate has ballooned from a very impressive 5.01 runs per over to an awful 6.43.
This illustrates that, in this latter period, Zampa has not been able to put pressure on the opposition either by choking the run rate or making breakthroughs.
A spinner can be excused for leaking runs if they are a strike bowler, or forgiven for lacking penetration if they are consistently frugal. Zampa was both economical and penetrative early in his career but has become a weak link.
The selectors have shown confidence in Zampa by selecting him as the sole specialist tweaker in the initial 14-man squad for the current five-match ODI series against England. Zampa showed enough in the first half of his ODI career, and throughout his so-far-brilliant T20I career, to justify this faith.
But that loyalty won’t last much longer if Zampa remains ineffective.
AAP Image/SNPA, John Cowpland
Who, then, are the top three contenders to take Zampa’s ODI spot? I will rank them, based on where they likely sit in the pecking order.
First choice: Ashton Agar
24 years old, 36 wickets at 30 from 18 List A matches
Clearly rated highly by the selectors, Agar played both Tests and ODIs for Australia last year. He acquitted himself well in two Tests in Bangladesh, but found life tougher in two ODIs in India, where he was targeted by a hyper-talented batting line-up.
Agar’s strength is his precision and the sharp lift he gains thanks to his 189cm height. While he is not a match winner with the ball, Australia may well figure they already have enough strike power thanks to their dynamic pace unit, and that an economical spinner would be a good fit.
Agar also adds significant value with his free-flowing batting and superb fielding.
Second choice: Nathan Lyon
30 years old, 71 wickets at 33 from 55 List A matches
Lyon has long been ignored in ODIs, but there are two reasons the selectors might reconsider this position in 2018.
The first is Lyon’s rampant form. He is coming off comfortably the best year of his international career, played well in the recent domestic One Day Cup, and has made a fine re-entry to the Big Bash League, taking 4-42 across his two matches.
The second thing working in his favour is the fact the World Cup is on next year. Lyon’s vast international experience, albeit limited mostly to Tests, could sway the selectors when they consider which spinner is most likely to thrive under the extreme pressure of a world cup.
Aside from experience, Lyon’s main selling point is his control. The off spinner has been miserly in his 13-match ODI career, giving up just 4.93rpo, and has been even more frugal at domestic level, where his economy rate is 4.80rpo.
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Third choice: Cameron Boyce
28 years old, 55 wickets at 35 from 48 List A matches
If Australia sought to replace Zampa with another leggie, Boyce is the most likely option.
Victorian leg-spinner Fawad Ahmed has a solid List A bowling average of 33, but turns 36 years old in two weeks’ time. Queenslander Mitchell Swepson, meanwhile, is more of a red-ball specialist, owning a good first-class bowling record but an awful one in 50-over cricket, where he averages 58. The fact Swepson is averaging 55 with the ball in this BBL certainly won’t help his cause.
That leaves Boyce, who is a bit of a forgotten man in Australian cricket, having rarely been spoken about since making a sensational start to his T20I career with eight wickets at 19, and a brilliant economy rate of 6.6rpo, in seven matches.
Boyce gets lovely loop on his deliveries and could be a decent wicket-taking option through the middle overs. If they were looking for an attacking spinner to replace Zampa then Boyce would be the standout, with Agar and Lyon the more reliable, economical options.
AFP PHOTO/ MAL FAIRCLOUGH
Left-field option: D’Arcy Short
27 years old, 12 wickets at 33 from 12 List A matches
The leading runscorer in this summer’s BBL has actually played as a bowling all-rounder for Western Australia this summer in both the Sheffield and the domestic One Day competition.
In his most recent Shield match, last month, he batted all the way down at nine, behind Agar. In the one-dayers he batted mostly at seven for WA, with the notable exception being their match against the Cricket Australia XI when Short opened the batting and made 119 not out from 92 balls.
In spin terms, Short is not on the same level as the likes of Zampa, Agar, Lyon and Boyce. But his ballistic batting will tempt the selectors.
His presence in the ODI XI could potentially allow them to play four specialist fast bowlers, with Short batting at six.