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Ireland has not beaten England at Twickenham with their current coach. To win the Six Nations, the number three-ranked Irish will probably need to do just that: on the last day of the tournament.
Five Tests from now, the men in green will no doubt have more wounded than now (eleven players are out, including brutally important Sean O’Brien). But the casualty list cannot be an excuse for anyone: the Lions-touring Home Nations are all missing ten or more (Scotland has lost eight of its elite front row).
England has the most depth, but is missing eighteen regulars, including the pugnacious Mike Brown, carry-in-traffic Billy Vunipola, long-bomber Elliot Daly, and many of their good mates.
The new laws put the ball in play more and protect the attacking side from pilfering, and therefore unintentionally create more injury scenarios (more tackles per minute, with dominant tackles the prerequisite for turnovers).
Since tackling is optional in the Top 14, where most French, Italian, and South Africans now play, the two teams guaranteed not to win the Six Nations have the fewest injuries.
Italy will just want to play well, “look to our processes,” improve, play consistently, and do other sport cliches and euphemisms for “lose gracefully.”
In reality, the other teams will look at the Italian fixture as a nice, al dente, steaming bowl of linguine with clams, paired with a white wine that is not too fruity. And that’s how Italy will play: like clams about to be opened.
France has a new coach determined to not be the old coach. Look for a sour blame-filled denouement, as the mysterious Laporte Affaire gathers momentum and scandal-worthiness, sufficient to drown Jacques Brunel’s happy talk. His team will be young (too young) in some positions for any return to faded grandeur.
Wales has Alun Wyn Jones. This legend looked old the first Test he played for Warren Gatland ten years ago. Now, he looks older than Gatland. But he never stays hurt. Wales doesn’t have anyone to help the forever balding giant.
World XV Jon Davies is out. Both tested flyhalves are gone. Combative Rhys Webb is lost. Strike winger George North is ailing. And world class No 8 Toby Faletau won’t play.
Plus, the Welsh have a tough schedule to build momentum. They face dangerous Scotland in Cardiff, then must visit England and Ireland. It’s no stretch to think the Boyos will be winless after three rounds and merely playing for pride. If they lose any more playmakers, Gatland might have to call Dr Jamie Roberts.
The aforementioned three teams don’t have a 9-10 combination capable of taking the Six Nations cake.
Scotland might, but more likely, they will play kingmaker, or spoil either Eddie Jones’ or Schmidt’s parade.
(Photo by Tim Anger)
Gregor Townsend doesn’t have a front row. They’re all gone.
Still, if any team can win without winning set pieces, it’s Scotland, and their terrible tartan twin troublemakers Finn Russell and Stu Hogg.
To win the whole thing, Scotland cannot lose to both Ireland and England, but the Irish have the home fixture this year, which means Round 3’s Calcutta Cup at Murrayfield (where the Scots struggle to score tries against their bigger neighbours) is the match of the tournament for the Jocks.
But all the rugby world is really sort of hoping the form book holds and England hosts Ireland on the final weekend – both unbeaten.
Bold, dynamic, nasty England, with superb halfbacks (Ben Youngs tearing around; Danny Care reading the game from the bench) and the uber-confident Owen Farrell and his clever sidekick George Ford stifling the opposition and setting up the speedsters. The only question could be: who is carrying the ball hard and heavy from the base, in the tight-loose?
Ireland has cohesion due to Munster’s and Leinster’s strong showing in the Champions Cup. Connacht has done well in the Challenge Cup, and Ulster was not far off. Every position has two or three similar candidates. Jason Stockdale is an exciting big finisher, and Jordan Larmour might be the “It” boy.
Beginning in France against a team that lost to South Africa three times last year, followed by a three-test home swing, is a dream draw.
But I suppose it will all come down to Twickers, at the end.
Prediction
1. England
2. Ireland
3. Scotland
4. Wales
5. France
6. Italy
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.