While the usual machinations over getting the deal done play out between the camps of Terence Crawford and Jeff Horn – and expect them to drag it out – it is timely to review what’s at stake.
While Horn and coach Glenn Rushton have done an excellent job over the last five years in increasing his skills, capacity and performances, an equally large story has been the performance of Duco Events in building momentum in this career.
Duco has moved Jeff up the rankings with a series of well planned and excellently executed steps that have him now at the table jostling for a place in the rarified atmosphere of fighting a pound-for-pound contender in the spiritual home of the sport.
For Crawford, Horn is an excellent choice. He will draw pay-per-view buys in areas not usually considered strong markets, and as a legitimate titleholder, taking his belt will give Crawford much more negotiating power in a superfight against the other big names of the division.
If he loses, all will not be lost – he drops back down a division, licks his wounds and continues to make good money doing defences.
(AAP Image/Dan Peled)
What then for Horn? In a way his situation is a win-win. Much like his fight with Manny Pacquiao, if he doesn’t lose ugly, he wins. A tough, tight contest affirms him as elite in the division and opens the door for big fights with other titleholders and contenders.
A win catapults him to the big table of unification bouts. With the Pacquiao win he created a profile, and with a win here he would make a statement. The money on the table for these bouts would make for a very lucrative couple of years and would maximise his returns for minimal risk.
A loss in an exciting fight might put him in similar territory as the late Arturo Gatti. Crowds line up to buy his fights because they can comfortably expect to be entertained. Again, this would provide a lucrative couple of years.
To the multimillion-dollar question: can Jeff Horn win?
(Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Team Horn obviously believe that every fight is a gamble, so you may as well make it big. As outlined above, in the wider scheme of things only a poor loss equals a negative outcome, so barring that, he wins.
In the ring Jeff has three major strengths: he is unusual, tough and smart. What he also has is a record of being underestimated.
Critics point out he was rocked by Randall Bailey and Rico Mueller, that Pacquiao was well past his prime along with any other reason to negate his wins. The same mindset points out Muhammad Ali was dropped by Joe Frazier, busted up by Larry Holmes and only won the title because Sonny Liston bet against himself. You can only beat who is in front of you, and Horn has done this 18 times.
All his opponents appear to have the ‘moment of clarity’. You see an expression of bewilderment on their face. Usually it’s after a punch lands flush from an unusual angle. This awakening demonstrates that what fighting him looks like from outside the ring is very different to their experience inside it.
(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
Horn is clearly much more to handle than he appears, and this alone provides him with an edge.
Perhaps this is partly due to his profile as a schoolteacher who came from nowhere. It is worth recalling he is a quarter-finalist from the London Olympics who was defeated by a member of the very strong Ukranian contingent. Since then his career has progressed with a series of well-selected opponents, from cult hero Jodee Allan to megastar Pacquiao, which allowed him to both learn and promote his brand in the best light.
Against Crawford he continues to be afforded the luxury of low expectation. Crawford will know he can move his purse into eight figures with an emphatic victory, but if he loses, he will feel as though he lost his shot at megastardom.
It would be outstanding for Australian boxing to have Horn win at Madison Square Gardens. It would fire the imaginations of young dreamers across the country and set up at least one more superfight for him.
I for one think he can win, and I’ll certainly be cheering for it.
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