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Eddie Jones holds the key to next year's Rugby World Cup

6th February, 2018
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Eddie Jones' golden run appears over. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
Expert
6th February, 2018
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Since Eddie Jones took over as England coach in early 2016, the men in white have won 23 of their 24 internationals as well as capturing back-to-back Six-Nations titles.

Their only loss was to Ireland 13-9 last year, but England’s 95.8 per cent win rate makes Jones the most successful coach in world rugby.

The missing link are the All Blacks.

England hasn’t played them since November 2014 at Twickenham, when they lost 24-21.

But England has stitched up the rest of the world’s top ten under Jones, with the exception of Ireland, where the count is 1-1.

Against the Wallabies it’s 5-0, against the Pumas 3-0, Wales 2-0, Scotland 2-0, France 2-0, the Boks 1-0, and Fiji 1-0.

Since the 2015 Rugby World Cup the world’s top ten performances have been:

1 – England under the 58-year-old Jones – played 24, won 23 – 95.8 per cent.
2 – All Blacks – Steve Hansen (58) – 28, 25 – 89.28.
3 – Ireland – Joe Schmidt (52) – 24, 16 – 66.67.
4 – Scotland – Vern Cotter (56) – 22, 13 – 59.09.
5 – Fiji – John McKee (56) – 13, 7 – 53.85.
6 – Wales – Warren Gatland (54) – 25, 13 – 52.00
7 – Wallabies – Michael Cheika (50) – 29, 15 – 51.72.
8 – Boks – Allister Coetzee (54) – 25, 11 – 44.00.
9 – France – Guy Noves (64) – 22, 7 – 31.81.
10 – Pumas – Daniel Hourcade (59) – 25, 5 – 20.00.

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Marland Yarde England Rugby Union 2016

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

But those stats don’t marry with the world rankings:

1 – All Blacks – 93.99.
2 – England – 90.87.
3 – Ireland – 86.86.
4 – Wallabies – 85.49.
5 – Boks – 83.81.
6 – Wales – 83.43.
7 – Scotland – 82.79.
8 – Pumas – 78.22.
9 – Fiji – 77.93.
10 – France – 77.62.

Those rankings won’t vary too much by September next year when the Rugby World Cup kicks off in Japan, with the possible exception of France.

The groups for the tournament tell an interesting tale.

Pool A
Ireland
Scotland
Japan
Europe 1
Play-off winner

Pool B
All Blacks
Boks
Italy
Africa 1
Repercharge winner

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Pool C
England
France
Pumas
USA
Tonga

Pool D
Wallabies
Wales
Georgia
Fiji
Uruguay

Pool C is the kiss of death, and the draw favours the Wallabies in the bottom half, with both the All Blacks and England in the top half.

With that in mind, this is what the quarter-finals will end up looking like:

Winner Pool C v Runner-up Pool D
England v Wales

Winner Pool B v Runner-up Pool A
All Blacks v Scotland

Winner Pool D v Runner-up Pool C
Wallabies v France

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Winner Pool A v Runner-up Pool B
Ireland v Boks.

The semi-finals:

Winner QF1 v winner QF2
England v All Blacks.

Winner QF3 v winner QF4
Wallabies v Ireland.

And then a repeat of the 2015 decider in the final:

Final
All Blacks v Wallabies.

Beauden Barrett New Zealand Rugby Union Championships Bledisloe Cup 2017

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

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Having made the prediction of an All Blacks-Wallabies decider, the two semis could so easily go the other way for an England-Ireland final.

The key will be Eddie Jones.

Jones has made a career out of raising the performance bar of his troops starting with the Brumbies’ first Super Rugby title, taking the Wallabies to the 2003 Rugby World Cup final, assistant coaching the Boks to win the 2007 tournament, and coaching Japan to the greatest boilover in history by beating the Boks in the opening round of the 2015 edition with a try on the final hooter.

On his current watch, he has instilled enormous belief in his England squad that was gutted when they missed the 2015 Rugby World Cup play-offs as host.

He has also lifted the individual skills to the point where it would be fair to say they believe they are invincible.

That belief won’t be genuinely tested until their first clash with the All Blacks, which is scheduled for November 10 this year.

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