This weekend we see the UFC’s first major event in Australia since November 2015, when Holly Holm spectacularly knocked out Ronda Rousey for the women’s bantamweight title.
Coming to Perth for the first time, hopes are high for a similarly exciting show, particular as the card is packed with Aussies.
Tyson Pedro vs Saperbek Safarov
First up on the main card we have a light-heavyweight bout between Australian hopeful Tyson Pedro (6 wins, 1 loss) and Russian Saparbek Safarov (8-1).
With both fighters coming off their first and only loss, this will be an exhibition of will, seeing who can bounce back better.
Pedro is an exciting talent. He has a strong background in Jiu Jitsu, both Japanese and Brazilian, as well as excellent boxing skills. He is a tall, strong, all-round fighter, but tends to rely on submissions for the win, favouring the rear-naked choke.
Safarov, from the Dagestan region of Russia – the same as undefeated lightweight monster Khabib Nurmagomedov – is slightly more experienced, and his strong boxing and good wrestling makes him a dangerous match-up.
However, with his last fight being his first in the UFC, Safarov is yet to prove he is ready for this level of competition. This is reflected in the odds for the bout, which have Pedro a firm favourite.
Expect Pedro to use his skill and bigger size to take this bout by submission.
Jake Matthews vs Li Jingliang
Next, Jake Matthews (11-3) takes on Li Jingliang (14-4) in the welterweight division, with both competing in their ninth UFC event, where Li has won six bouts to Matthews’ five.
Melburnian Matthews is a well-rounded fighter, with four KOs and five submissions among his wins. Li is similarly rounded, with a background in Sanshou, wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, although – as his nickname, ‘The Leach’ implies – he also favours a ground game.
Standing 7.5 cms shorter than Li, the Aussie is at a significant disadvantage in this fight, so I see Li winning by decision.
Tai Tuivasa vs Cyril Asker
Undefeated Australian Tai Tuivasa (6-0) is the first athlete of aboriginal descent to fight in the UFC. He had an explosive start in the promotion, gaining a first round knockout of Rashad Coulter with a brutal leg kick, followed by flying knee. Formerly signed to the Sydney Roosters, the 24-year-old is now a full-time fighter, who depends heavily on his knockout power, with all of his six fights ending in the first round.
With more experience in the cage, and eight years his senior, Cyril Asker has the temperament to stop Tuivasa, particularly if he can take the Australian to the ground and deprive him of his power. With three submissions in his nine wins, Asker certainly has the ability to do this.
If Tuivasa can land early, the night will likely be over for the Frenchman, but if Asker can push the fight into the third or fourth round, the Aussie may struggle with his size.
That said, in front of a big home crowd, I’m backing Tuivasa to take another first-round knockout.
Mark Hunt vs Curtis Blaydes
In the co-main-event, we see 43-year-old Mark Hunt (13-11) return to the octagon after undergoing mandatory brain scans. With his health cleared, Hunt will be hoping to get his career back on track after some unfortunate losses.
A former champion K1 kick-boxer, Hunt is one of the heaviest hitters ever, and is in good shape for this fight after some time off. If he manages to land properly on Curtis Blaydes (8-1) the fight will end. Hunt will be buoyed by Blaydes’ loss to heavy hitter Francis Ngannou, and look to catch the American in a similar fashion.
However, the 26-year-old Blaydes is a former junior college national wresting champion, making this far frmo the best fight for Hunt. Blaydes is much taller than Hunt – 193 cm compared to 178 cm – and wrestling is the traditional downfall of southern hemisphere fighters.
Furthermore, Blaydes will likely have learnt from his loss to Ngannou, and not put himself in the same position. The American should use his superior wrestling to take Hunt to the ground, and therefore removing his greatest weapon: his power.
Blaydes by Decision.
Yoel Romero vs Luke Rockhold
Finally, the main event of the evening sees the middleweight interim championship on the line between cuban Yoel Romero (12-2) and former champion Luke Rockhold (16-3).
Romero stepped up after middleweight champ Robert Whittaker was forced to withdraw due to a staph infection in his knee.
Rockhold is a huge middleweight, standing 190.5 cm, and is the former middleweight champion. In the ring, he uses his size to great effect by creating distance, and striking with punches and sharp kicks from the outside. However, he is also an underrated grappler, with one of the nastiest ground-and-pound games in the division.
Romero has always been an enigma. An Olympic silver medalist in freestyle wrestling, he has never won an MMA match via submission, rarely seeking to take an opponent to the ground. Rather. Famous for his explosive power (especially a spectacular flying knee), Romero likes to use sudden and unorthodox movement to achieve knockouts, with ten knockouts in 12 wins.
Nevertheless, Romero owns an excellent grappling and clinch game, drawn from his wrestling past. Against the bigger Rockhold, expect Romero to use this more acutely than we have seen in the past, closing the distance quickly to try to grind the former champion against the fence and look for takedowns.
A factor in this fight will be that, for one of the only times in his career, Romero will not be the biggest man in the cage – standing only 178 cm tall.
With Rockhold so much bigger, and considering his supreme command of distance, it is hard to see Romero winning this fight. Even if he takes Rockhold down, the bigger man will likely get straight up again.
Luke Rockhold to win by TKO.
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